Transcript Population and Development

A Presentation by Robert J. Walker
President of the Population Institute
It’s Not How Many People the
World Can Contain…..
It’s How Many People the Earth
Can Sustain….
And at What Standard of Living….
In the 20th Century World
Population Rose from 1.6 Billion to
6.0 Billion
Life Expectancy at Birth More than
Doubled in the 20th Century
The World’s Per Capita GDP Soared
in the 20th Century
 Measured in constant 2000 dollars, the world’s per
capital GDP grew from:
 $850 in 1900
$8175 in 2000
The World at 6 Billion
It’s a Rapidly Changing World
The World at 7 Billion: What’s
changed?
Millennium Development Goals
The Prices of Most Food
Commodities have Nearly Doubled
Fuel and Non-Fuel Commodity
Prices Have Soared.
Oil Prices (1980-2011)
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Conventional Crude Oil Production
has Peaked
 In its 2010 World Energy Outlook, the
International Energy Administration
projected that crude oil output would
reach “an undulating plateau” of
around 68-69 mb/d by 2020, but it
would never again regain “its all-time
peak of 70 mb/d reached in 2006.”
The Historic Decline in Metal Prices
has Been Reversed
Tin Prices (1980-2011)
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Iron Ore (1980-2011)
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Cotton Prices (1980-2011)
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
The Ranks of the Hungry have
Increased
Fossil Fuel and Cement CO2 Emissions
(Source: Global Carbon Project)
Growth rate
2010
5.9% yr
Growth rate
2000-2010
3.1% per year
Growth rate
2009
-1.3% per year
Growth rate
1990-1999
1% per year
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Uncertainty (6-10%)
+
Population Projections for 2050 are
Rising
 Medium Variant Population Projection:
Source: UN Population
Division
1999 Projection: 8.9 billion
2011 Projection: 9.3 billion
No Global “Birth Dearth”
 In 1999: Max Singer of the Hudson Institute wrote: “50
years from now the world’s population will be
declining, with no end in sight.”
 T0day: The latest UN projections show world
population is rising with no end in sight:


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9.3 billion by 2050 (medium variant projection)
10.0 billion by 2082 (medium variant projection)
Possibly as high as 15.6 billion by 2100 (high
variaent projection)
Age Distribution of the World’s Population
Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005
Millions
Less Developed
Regions
More Developed
Regions
Age
Male
300 200 100
Female
0
100 200 300
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male
300
100
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Female
100
300
The Decline in Adolescent
Pregnancy Rates has Stalled
 Number of Births per 1,000 Women (ages 15-19)in the
Least Developed Countries:
Source: UN Population Division 2010 Revision
1990: 133.3
2000: 116.7
2007: 121.0
High Adolescent Pregnancy Rates
Reasons:
 Growth of the adolescent population
 Decline in family planning assistance
 Lack of access to contraceptives
 Limited contraceptive choices
 Lack of comprehensive sex education
 Status of women and girls
 Sexual coercion and abuse
 Child marriage
Child Marriage
“82 million girls in developing countries
who are now between the ages of 10 and 17
will be married before their 18th birthday.”
UNFPA
2050: the Challenges Posed by
Population Growth
Hunger
 There are 950 million hungry people in the world
today.
 The Food and Agriculture Organization says world
food production will need to increase by 70 percent to
keep up with population and more meat-intensive
diets.
 Food production in the developing world will have to
double just to keep up with population.
Severe Poverty
 Rising food prices are pushing people into poverty. The
urban poor spend 50-80 percent of their budget on
food.
 In 2010 alone, rising food prices pushed 44 million
people into severe poverty.
 Oxfam International warns that food prices could rise
by 120-180 percent by 2030.
Urban Slums
 The size of the urban population in the developing
world is growing faster than the general population.
 In 1990, there were an estimated 657 million people
living in urban slums. Today there are 828 million.
Water Scarcity
 Water shortages have already reached crisis
proportions in Western Asia and North Africa.
 Demand for Water is expected to outstrip supply by 40
percent within the next 20 years.
Sanitation
 Very little progress has been made in improving
sanitation in the developing world.
 Half of the population in the developing world is not
using an improved form of sanitation. That’s 2.5
billion people.
Shortages of Arable Land
 Agricultural areas have expanded by only five percent
since the 1970s, and the capacity for further conversion
is limited.
 Much of the potentially arable land that remains is
forest.
 Biofuels are competing with food producers for arable
land.
 We are in the midst of a worldwide “land grab” by
foreign interests in the developing world.
Loss of topsoil
 The FAO estimates that by 2030, 135 million people
may lose their land as result of soil degradation,
including 60 million people in sub-Saharan Africa.
 Desertification is a major threat to China’s food
production.
Rising Energy Prices
 No one knows how energy producers will meet the
world’s growing demand for energy. We will need
almost 50 percent more energy by 2030.
 Rising energy prices are increasing the cost of
producing and transporting food.
Deforestation
 The rate of deforestation slowed in the past decade,
but there are signs that rate of deforestation may be
increasing again.
 The world’s rising demand for lumber, palm oil, and
soybeans is largely responsible.
Rising Temperatures
 The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
reports that 2001-10 was the hottest decade on record.
 Rising temperatures will curtail crop production in
many areas by 10-20 percent.
 Rising seas will inundate many rice producing areas in
South and Southeast Asia.
Severe Weather
 Unless drastic steps are taken to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions, the world will suffer some of the worst
effects of climate change.
 Climate change experts believe that climate change
will result in:



Intensified Droughts
Intensified Flooding
Intensified Storms
Oceans
 The annual marine fish catch peaked in 1996 at 83.3.
million tons and it has been declining ever since. In
2008 it was 79.5 million tons.
 Ninety percent of all large fish populations have
disappeared.
 Coral reefs are endangered.
Loss of Biodiversity
 Despite the Convention on Biological Diversity, the
rate of plant and animal extinction is accelerating.
 Scientists warns that human activity is causing the
“Sixth Mass Extinction.”
Failing States
 The number of failing states is on the rise.
 While several factors account for the increase infailing
states, virtually all failing states have high fertility rates
that make it more difficult to reduce hunger and
poverty.
 Of the 20 countries that rank highest on the 2011
Failed States Index, all but one have a total fertility rate
in excess of 3.5. More than half have a TFR of 5.0 or
higher.
Will the 21st Century Vindicate
Thomas Malthus?
1.8 billion
8.1 billion
7 billion
9.3 billion
10.9 billion
Changing Atttitudes and Behaviors
through Mass Media
Population Media Center uses radio serial dramas (soap
operas) to change atttitudes and behaviors:
 Violence against women
 Child marriage
 Family planning and reproductive health
Delaying Age of Marriage through
Economic Incentives
Population Council: Berhane Hewan (“Light of Eve”)
project in Amhara region of Ethiopia
 Girls meet regularly to acquire life-time health skills.
 Girls who complete the program receive a financial
reward for completion (e.g. a goat).
8.1 Billion in 2050—How did we
get there?





We invested more in youth and adolescents
Girls were able to delay their age of marriage
Girls were able to stay in school longer
Attitudes toward girls and women improved
Boys and men treated girls and women with
respect
8.1 billion in 2050—How did we
get there?
 Men and women, husbands and wives, actually
talked about sex and childbearing
 Girls and women were empowered
 Modern contraceptives were widely available
 Women had a range of contraceptives to choose
from, and
 Couples had children by choice, not by chance.
8.1 Billion in 2050: What would it
mean?
 Universal access to reproductive health services
became a reality, not just a right.
 Maternal mortality fell sharply.
 The number of women dying of unsafe abortions
declined sharply.
 More mothers lived long enough to see their children
and their grandchildren grow up.
 Many obstetric fistulas were prevented, and those
that were not could be treated.
8.1 Billion in 2050: What would it
mean?
 The battle against HIV/AIDS and STIs was won.
 The level of educational attainment went up, and the
rate of poverty went down.
 Full gender equality was achieved.
 Food security was enhanced. Fewer people went
hungry…or starved.
 Water scarcity became more manageable.
8.1 Billion in 2050: What would
it mean?
 The gap between energy supply and the essential
energy needs of the world was narrowed.
 The threat of conflict was, correspondingly,
diminished.
 Income disparities declined. The gap between North
and South narrowed.
 Deforestation was slowed, perhaps halted.
8.1 Billion in 2050: What would
it mean?
 Climate change was mitigated and prospects for
adapting to climate change improved.
 More plants and animals survived threatened
extinction.
 We met—or began to meet--the needs of present
generations without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs.