Transcript 2Wandiga_Workshop_Presentation_finalx

Workshop on Enhancing the
Horn of Africa Adaptive and
Responsive Capacity to
Climate Change Impacts
27-28 November 2014, Nairobi Kenya
WHY THE WORKSHOP ON
CLIMATE/WEATHER DISASTERS?
SHEM O. WANDIGA
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION
Looking back
Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts
Can Climate Change make the impacts of ENSO
worse?
The figure shows
the number of
areas affected by
drought that hit
GHA in 2011 which
was named the
worst drought in
60 years by the UN
Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts
Looking back
Increased frequency of climate caused disasters
Lessons learnt from the 2011 drought disaster
vary from country to country
Opportunity to review our knowledge and
actions for future such disasters
Knowledge of disaster hot points for El Niño/La
Niña helps in preparation for the next one.
Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts
Looking back
A girl carrying a weak kid
during the drought of 2011
in GHA
Damage to Infrastructure in
floods prone areas in the region
LESSONS
LEARNT
FORM
PAST ENSO
EVENTS
Flash floods in 2012 in Budalangi
making livestock farmers to
move to higher grounds
Malaria and RVF prevalence during
floods as such diseases are very
common
Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts
How did we respond to the disaster
 Response varied from country to country:
 Somalia
• The mortality rates began to increase in late 2010
and had already peaked in June-July 2011
• On July 20, 2011 famine was declared and this
spurred humanitarian response with external
support reaching a peak proportional to the
problem by September or October 2011
• By October 2011, mortality rates were declining
rapidly
Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts
Donor response
 Responses to the crisis were considered very late for
both Somalia and Kenya
 The decisions were made in the context of institutional
and political considerations, which remain the mostimportant factors determining the success or failure of
early warning and early response
 In the case of Somalia, political risk preferences, donor
geopolitical concerns, and domestic political concerns
appear to have outweighed humanitarian concerns, until
the declaration of famine forced a response.
Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts
Response to disaster
 In Kenya:
 the response was driven more by the media. Media
coverage became nationally prominent in July 2011,
in part linked to large movements of people from
Somalia into Kenya.
 In Ethiopia:
 the established seasonal early warning and needs
assessment process incorporated the response into
its usual timeframe for response according to it’s
established procedures
Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts
Lessons learned from other countries?
PERU
The Peruvian government took
advantage of the six months of
advance warning to construct
levees, acquire pumps, plant
rice and other water- tolerant
crops, and strengthen bridges.
Not all these preparations were
successful, and the floods still
affected the economy.
Nevertheless, the impacts were
less than would have been the
case with no preparation
(Mogaka et al., 2006).
US, PERU, AUSTRALIA,
BRAZIL, INDIA, AND ETHIOPIA
SUSTAINABLE
ENSO
MANAGEMENT
IN THE PAST
Since 1983, when NOAA’s
CPC issues El Nino forecasts,
they are presented in terms of
probabilities. Once issued
farmer representatives and
government officials meet in
the United States, Peru,
Australia, Brazil, India and - in
the Horn of Africa – Ethiopia,
to use this information to
determine the types of crops
to plant and in what quantity
(NOAA, 2014).
Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts
Flooding impacts
 In 1997-98 one and a half million persons in Kenya were
affected by the El Niño related flooding
 The floods and the resulting disaster is estimated to
have led to a total economic loss of $0.8 to $1.2 billion
arising from damage to infrastructure (roads buildings
and communications), public health effects (including
fatalities) and loss of crops
 Floods of 1997-98 and drought of 1998-2000 cost Kenya
an equivalent of 11% and 16% of its GDP, respectively
Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts
Flooding impacts
Year
Region affected
(Provinces)
No of people affected
Displaced
Fatalities
2009
Nyanza (Kisumu town)
150
families
5
2008
Nyanza, Northeastern,
Rift Valley, Coastal
12,000
5
2007
Western, Nyanza
20,610
9
2006
Nyanza, Western,
Coastal and Eastern
723,000
66
2005
Western, Nyanza,
Eastern, Northeastern
35,000
including
25,000
refugees in
Dadaab
20
2004
Widespread
2,500
50
1997-98
Widespread
1,500,000
53
Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts
A menu of no regrets option
Climate
Monitoring
Rapid Assessment
Land Use Mapping
ENSO effects
Sustainability
options
Ecosystem
Management
Sustainable Water
Management and
Aquaculture Preparation
Resource
Management
Planning
Preparing for
Health Impacts
Infrastructure
Rangeland
Management
Post Harvest
management
Establishment of Diverse
Agricultural Systems
1.Shelling
2.Grading
3. Packaging
4. Best storage
practices
5. Best transport
practices
Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts
The way forward
 Provide actionable information early and notify local
governments as soon as possible;
 Prioritize areas based on past and projected? impacts;
 Use lasting, “no regrets” approaches and work to enhance the
resilience of the area to the potential 2014-2015 El Niño
impacts especially in terms of water management,
rangeland management, infrastructure and health
preparedness;
 Coordinate an open dialog between all involved parties, local
government, local and international NGOs, etc.; and
 Prepare to move swiftly and act on readiness (contingency?)
plans should predictions (the forecasts?) become reality.
Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts
Workshop on Enhancing the
Horn of Africa Adaptive and
Responsive Capacity to
Climate Change Impacts
27-28 November 2014, Nairobi Kenya
Presented by Shem O. Wandiga