Transcript Research framework and results (2009

Climate Change Impacts
to the Water Environment and
Adaptation in Taiwan
Presenter：阮香蘭 博士
E-mail：[email protected]
2015/07/14
Outline
1
Research framework and results
(2009-2015)
2
Directions for future research
(2016-2019)
3
Exchange topics
1
1
Research framework and
results (2009-2015)
2
Climate Change Impacts and
Adaptation on Water Environment
Objective：
1. Clarify the impacts
2. Develop adaptation
strategies
3. Build cross-field
integration mechanism
Target ： 2020~2039
Topic
1. Water resources
management
2. Flood protection
3. Sediment control
4. Coastal protection
Step
1.
2.
3.
4.
Scenario simulation
Impact assessment
Risk analysis
Adaptation planning
3
Set scenario based on IPCC AR4
Scenario
simulation
Impact
assessment
Simulate rainfall data in Taiwan based on GCM results
OK
YES
Is it OK
to do nothing?
NO
Is current plan
enough?
YES
OK
NO
assess hazard and vulnerability,
and identify high-risk areas.
Risk
analysis
Adaptation
planning
Develop/adjust adaptation plan
NO
Is adaptation plan enough?
YES
OK
4
 Scenario simulation



Scenario: A1B
Baseline: 1980 ~ 1999
Target year: 2020 ~ 2039
GCM projection
AR4 24 GCM (resolution: 300 km)
Statistical
downscaling
Normalize grid data
(resolution: 25 and 5 km)
Generated
rainfall data
Multiply the sequence of the daily
and hour precipitation in each site.
Subprojects
Subprojects adopt data according to
its plan objectives, add or produce
other scenario data.
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 Risk analysis


Definition：R(risk)＝ H(hazard) × V(vulnerability)
Procedure：
Set index for
H and V
expert meeting
analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Determine weights for
H and V
Draw the risk map
Vulnerability
Assess H, V and R
RISK
Hazard
Very
high
High
Medium
Low
Very
low
Very high
Very
high
Very
high
High
High
Medium
High
Very
high
High
Medium
Medium
Low
Medium
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
Low
Low
High
Medium
Medium
Low
Very
low
Very low
Medium
Low
Low
Very
low
Very
low
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7
2
Directions for future
research (2016-2019)
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 For the high-risk areas




Continuously track disaster records and appropriately disclose climate
risks.
Communicate risks with related stakeholders and develop partnership.
Plan cross-field adaptation research and promote with partners.
Promote adaptation index research and release the results regularly.
Water
resources
management
Flood
protection
Sediment
control
Coastal
protection
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
11 items about cross-field adaptation plans were planned preliminarily.
Cross-field integration
Water
resources
management
Flood
protection and
sediment
control
Coastal
protection
Water quality
1. River water intake potential assessment and water
intake scope expansion plan research.
Hydroelectric power
2. Taipower reservoir operation adjustment plan in dry
season.
Agriculture
3. Farm area adjustment plan.
4. Agricultural reservoir storage capability improvement
plan.
5. Irrigated water way adjustment and expansion of hire
irrigation scheduling people.
Soil and water
conservation
6. Cross-field adaptation on sediment management.
Road network
7. Drainage system and road network integration plan.
8. Flood storage improvement research for old
watercourse, surrounding land of the river.
Land management
9. Urban re-zoned areas flood storage research.
10. Agricultural re-zoned areas flood storage research.
Environmental trust
Land management
11. Coastal conservation, environmental trust and
national spatial planning integration plan.
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3
Exchange topics
11
1. Extreme Weather Scenarios
 Typhoons
 PMP/PMF
2. Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Facilities
3. Watershed disaster management
4. Cross-field Adaptation
5. Potential Inundation Maps
6. Real-time flood and Inundation simulation
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7. Hydraulic Engineering and Climate Change Conference
at 2015 in Taiwan




Date：2015/11/05~06
Location：National Cheng Kung University, Tainan City, Taiwan
Website：http://hec22.hyd.ncku.edu.tw/
Sincerely invite ICHARM representatives to Taiwan to give keynote speech
and share related experiences on water adaptation.
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Thank you for
your listening!
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