Transcript 从风险评估到适应预测，实施与评价

Risk Assessment to Adaptation Planning,
Implementation and Evaluation
Presidential Plaza Hotel, Beijing
Friday, 05th March 2009
Roger B Street
Technical Director
从风险评估到适应预测，
实施与评价
北京国宾酒店
2010年3月5日
Roger B Street
技术指导
Why Risk Assessment ?
Faced with an uncertain future
•
Risk-based approach to managing in the context of these
changes (climate and other drivers) – a rationale approach
Risk assessment
•
Used to identify risks – necessary but insufficient
•
Used to concentrate efforts (investments, policies and
programmes) on those risks deemed priorities
•
Adaptation assessment – identifying “appropriate” adaptation
options and strategies and evaluating them in terms of criteria
such as availability, benefits, effectiveness, efficiency and
feasibility.
为什么要进行风险评估？
面对未来不确定性
• 在（气候和其他动因）不断变化的情况下，使用基于风险的方法进
行管理–理论方法
风险评估
• 用于识别风险—有必要却尚有不足
• 将力量（投资、政策与项目）集中于被视为有风险的优先项上
• 适应评估—识别“合适的”适应选择和策略，并从有效性、收益、
效力、效率及可行性等角度进行评估
Understanding to what you are adapting
Projected Precipitation Change – Summer
•Year-to-year summertime
variability
- Models
- Observations
•30-year summer
mean
了解你在适应什么
降水量变化预测– 夏季
•Year-to-year summertime
variability
•30-year summer
mean
降雨量变化
有可能发生
非常有可能发生
- 模型
-观测结果
Resources Needed to Support
Monitoring and
Evaluation
Strategies
Continuous improvement
Understanding of system and its
vulnerabilities
Current climate and climate
scenarios
Vulnerability and risk
assessment tools and
guidance
Engagement strategies
and guidance
Case studies and other evidence
Options evaluation and sensitivity
testing
需要获取的资源
不断改进
策略监控
与评价
了解系统及其脆弱性
当前气候与气候情景分析
1.确定问题和目标 2.确立决策标准
3.评估风险 4.识别可选方案 5.评估
可选方案 6.决策 7.决策实施8.监控
脆弱性和风险评
估工具与指导
参与战略与指导
个案研究与其他证据
可选项评估与敏感性测试
Predict, Optimise and Relax
• Focus is on the climate and projected changes
• Often assumes that we are adapted to “today”
• Follows a linear model:
•Climate Projections
•Impacts
•Adaptation
• Focus is on getting the climate “right” – uncertainty
remains a barrier to decision making
• Tendency for decision and policy makers to hold off
awaiting better climate information and there is a need to
start over each time there is new projections
预测、优化与放松
• 聚焦气候与预期变化
• 时常假定我们是在适应“今天”
• 遵循线性模型:
气候预测
影响
适应
• “彻底弄清楚”气候—不确定因素会对决策构成障碍
• 决策者与政策制定者有这样一种倾向，他们会延时决策以等待更佳
的气候信息，因此，每当有新的预期出现，就要从头开始。
Assess, Adjust and Review
• Focus is on understanding the climate (and other) risks
• Assumes that “today” may need some further adaptation
(benefits the day job)
• Recognises the need for
a recursive model
• Uncertainty and risk are
made explicit and
addressed and can be
communicated
• Allows for “adjustments” as benefits and changes in risk
are realised
评估、调整与回顾
•
焦点认识气候（及其他）风险
•
假定“今天”就可能需要更进一步的适应 （有益于当前工作）
•
需要递归式模型
•
明确不确定因素与风险，
确保其得到相应关注
并相互传达
•
随着风险收益的实现与变化的发生，允许出现“调整”
An Effective Adaptation Approach
Recognises that uncertainties exist and will continue to exist:
• Coping with risks associated with present climate variability
and extremes – dealing with the existing adaptation deficit
• Adopting a risk-based approach (risk = likelihood X
consequences)
• Moving beyond identifying an optimal adaptation strategy
(“brittle”) to one which is adaptive – robust and adjustable
o Enhancing flexibility or resilience (capacity to adapt to stress and
change) of hard-to-reverse investments
o Introducing adaptation measures incrementally – what makes sense
today and designed to allow incremental adjustments – defining an
adaptation pathway
o Capable of moving beyond simply coping – knowledge of thresholds
and when existing investments, strategies and practices are no longer
viable
有效的适应方法
认识到不确定因素始终存在:
• 应对与当前气候脆弱性和极端事件相关的风险 – 解决现有适应的不足
• 采取基于风险的方法（风险=可能性X影响）
• 从最佳适应策略（ “脆性” ）到自适应策略 – 稳健又可调
o 加强不易流转投资的弹性或适应性（能够适应压力和变化）
o 逐渐引入适应措施 –既在当前可行，又可吸纳渐进式调整–确定适应途径
o 能够超越简单应对—了解阈值、了解现有投资、策略与实践何时失效
Supporting Effective Adaptation
An on-line tool to help organisations adapt to climate change Adaptation Wizard
•
http://www.ukcip.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=147&Ite
mid=297
•
Based on “risk and uncertainty in decision-making” framework
•
Shares the risk framework’s intellectual basis and key concepts,
but is presented in a “lighter”, action–oriented style.
推进有效适应
• 帮助组织团体适应气候变化的在线工具—适应指导
http://www.ukcip.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=
147&Itemid=297
• 以“决策风险与不确定性”框架为基础
• 分享风险框架的知识基础与关键概念，表述更加“轻松”、以行动
为导向
Developing an adaptation strategy
Adaptation Wizard – a 5 step process that facilitates exploration by
those using it to:
o Understand key concerns and issues
o Assess vulnerability to current climate and future climate chang
o Identify options to
address key climate
risks
o Develop a climate
change adaptation
strategy
发展适应策略
适应指导 – 认识适应策略五部曲:
o 了解关注点与主要问题
o 评估当前气候脆弱性与未来气候变化脆弱性
o 识别应对主要气候风险的可
选项
2.我易受气候变化影响吗？
o 发展气候变化适应策略
3. 气候变化将对我产生怎样的影响
5.保持相关性
4.我该怎么做？
我的了解全面吗？
4b.了解更多
4a.适应选择的识别、评估与实施
Understanding Concerns and Context
Essential first step to answer these questions:
•
What is your motivation for undertaking this assessment?
•
What do you intend to achieve?
•
How will you judge whether this process has been successful?
•
Who should be involved and why?
•
Are the necessary resources (information and possible finances) available to
complete the process?
•
Are there any barriers to overcome, and if so how will you do that?
•
What is the risk attitude?
了解关注点及周边
回答这些问题关键步骤:
•
你为什么要了解这一评估?
•
你想实现什么样的目的?
•
你如何判断这一方法是否成功?
•
涉及哪些人群，为什么？
•
完成评估的必要资源（信息与资金）是否齐备？是否存在障碍？如果有，你
打算如何克服？
•
什么是风险态度?
1.开始
Scenario 1
1m
Max water level rise :
0m
Scenario 2
2m
H+ Scenario
3m
H++ Scenario
4m
Improve Thames Barrier and raise d/s
defences
Over-rotate Thames
Barrier and restore
interim defences
Existing system
Raise
Defences
Flood storage, improve Thames
Barrier, raise u/s & d/s
defences
Flood storage, over rotate Thames
Barrier, raise u/s & d/s defences
Flood storage, restore
interim defences
New barrier, retain Thames Barrier, raise defences
New barrier, raise defences
New barrage
The final plan may be a combination of approaches
水位上涨最大值:
0m
情景1m
1
情景2
2m
H+情景
3m
改进泰晤士水闸，加高d/s防御工事
过旋泰晤闸 ，重建临时
工事
蓄洪，改进泰晤士水闸，加高u/s
与d/s防御工事
现有系统
加筑堤坝
蓄洪，过旋泰晤士水闸，加高u/s 与d/s
防御工事
蓄洪，重建临时防御工事
蓄洪，过旋泰晤士水闸，加高u/s 与d/s防御工事
新建堤坝、加高防御工事
新堰坝
最终规划可以是多种方法的结合体
H++ Scenario
4m
Developing a Response Surface
• Identifying the
behaviour of the system
of interest (inflow into a
lake) with projected
changes in climate
(temperature and
precipitation) across
plausible ranges
• Different scenarios at
different time periods
plotted on this
建立反映曲面
年流量
• 在所有合理的气候变化预测(
气温与降水) 范围内识别所关
注的系统 (湖泊注水量)
• 不同情景分析于不同时间段
在反映面上绘点
年
降
水
量
变
化
气温变化
Developing a Response Surface
• Identifying the behaviour of the system of interest (capability of
land to support agriculture – different classes) with projected
changes in climate (accumulated temperature and soil moisture)
across plausible ranges.
Land Capability - DYCE
2000
Class 1
1800
Class 2
Accumulated Temperature
• Baseline and
different scenarios at
different time
periods plotted on
this surface
1600
Class
3.1
1400
1200
Baseline
1000
UKCIP09 2050s (A1B)
Original LCA
Median -Baseline
800
Median -2050s
600
0
50
100
150
200
Soil Moisture Deficit (Potential)
250
300
350
建立反映曲面
• 在所有合理的气候变化预测(积温与土壤水分) 范围内识别所关注系统的行
为（土地耕种能力—不同级别）
土地能力
Land Capability - DYCE
2000
Class 2
Accumulated Temperature
• 基线和不同情景分析在
不同时间段在反映面上
绘点
Class 1
1800
积温
1600
Class
3.1
1400
1200
Baseline
1000
UKCIP09 2050s (A1B)
Original LCA
Median -Baseline
800
Median -2050s
600
0
50
100
150
200
250
Soil Moisture Deficit (Potential)
土壤水分（潜在）
赤字
300
350
Using the Adaptation Framework
适应框架应用
Examples of Results – Northern Ningxia
产出举例 – 宁夏北部
www.ukcip.org.uk