Transcript Slide 1 - climateknowledge.org

Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary
Approach to Problem Solving
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://clasp.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2016
January 26, 2016
Class Information and News
• Ctools site: CLIMATE_480_001_W16
– Record of course
• Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site
–
http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
• A tumbler site to help me remember
– http://openclimate.tumblr.com/
• Note New Assignment
Resources and Recommended Reading
• TED Video and Education on Feedbacks
• Wikipedia on Feedbacks
• Soden and Held: Feedbacks in Climate
Models
• Lindzen and Hou: The Iris Effect
Mind Map / Brainstorming
Outline: Class 5, Winter 2016
• Balance and Altering Balance
– System
– Unique
• Feedbacks
– Alter balance: Recover?
– Alter balance: Fall?
– Alter balance: New Balance?
• In class discussion: Northeast Blizzard
– Weather
– Climate
– Climate change?
BALANCE
Radiation Balance Figure
In this figure out = in
BALANCE (National Geographic)
Lynx and Hare: Predator Prey
Wolf- Moose: For Example Isle Royale NP
Artist’s View of Ecosystem
How might the balance change?
1)
2) from weather?
3) from climate?
Isle Royale: Wolf-Moose Climate Change (Example of Scenario Planning)
Changes in
the sun
So what matters?
THIS IS WHAT WE
ARE DOING
Things that
change
reflection
Things that
change
absorption
If something can transport energy DOWN from the surface.
Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009)
In this figure out does not = in
Balance: Markets and Economics
• What does the Federal Reserve do?
• Markets (How do we watch movies?)
– 1950
– 1970
– 1990
– 2000
– 2016
•
•
•
•
Movies
Movies on TVs
Videocassettes
DVDs
• Blockbuster, Netflix, RedBox
• Streaming
Feedbacks
• When you think of feedback what is your
first thought?
Problem Solving Brings Focus to System
• System (Dictionary Definitions):
– a set of connected things or parts forming a
complex whole
– a set of interacting or interdependent
components forming an integrated whole
– has: Structure, Behavior, Interconnection
• Systems Engineering: study,
understanding (analysis), design,
management of systems
Net
+3.5
What are the
mechanisms
for production
and loss of
CO2?
Movement of
carbon
dioxide by
burning
Millions
of
Years
Feedbacks from Increased Carbon Dioxide?
More consideration of radiative energy in the atmosphere
• FEEDBACKS ....
– The idea that one thing causes a second thing
to happen.
• That second thing then does something to the first
thing
– It damps it, negative feedback
– It amplifies it, positive feedback
– Technical Reference: Soden and Held
Feedback
• Definition
– Feedback occurs when outputs of a system
are "fed back" as inputs to the system
• Negative feedback regulates the system
• Positive feedback causes system to
– Implode
– Explode
We perturb the system – how does it respond?
• What happens when we perturb the
system? Is it stable or unstable?
• Feedbacks – are they positive or
negative?
The Earth System: Feedbacks 1
Infrared Proportional to Temperature
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
Assume that greenhouse gases remain the same
• Infrared emission is proportional to temperature
• Temperature increases  emission increases
T
 H  T  0
t
H
T
ATMOSPHERE

(infrared)
SURFACE
Let’s think about Temperature and Moisture
• If you were becoming a forest fire fighter
• If you were developing a new clothes dryer
Holding Moisture vs Temperature
From Engineering Tool Box
Temperature and Moisture in Air
Moisture
Cold
Wet
Hot
Wet
Temperature
Cold
Dry
Hot
Dry
Moisture in Air vs Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse
effect
Not physical
Warmer
Moisture
Cooler
Not Physical
CO2 Warming
•
•
•
•
Increases Temperature
Increases Moisture
Increases Greenhouse
Increases Temperature
The Earth System: Feedbacks 2
Water Vapor
When it gets warmer more water, a greenhouse gas,
will be in the atmosphere
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
• Higher temperature increases evaporation from land
and ocean
• Higher temperature allows air to hold more water
• Increase of water increases thickness of blanket –
increases temperature more
• This could runaway!
• Natural limit because of condensation  clouds, rain?
• Compensating circulation changes?
• Think deserts …
ATMOSPHERE
(infrared)
SURFACE
Temperature and Ice/Snow
Ice
More Ice
Temperature
Less Ice
Ice/Snow and Reflection
Reflection
Increased Reflection
Ice Snow
Decreased Reflection
Ice/Snow and Absorption
Absorption
Increased Absorption
Decreased Ice/Snow
?
Increased Absorption
Increased Ice/Snow
?
Ice Snow
Decreased Absorption
Decreased Ice/Snow
?
Decreased Absorption
Increased Ice/Snow
?
The Earth System: Feedbacks 3
Ice – Reflection (Albedo)
When it gets warmer less ice
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
• Less ice means less reflection  warmer
• Warmer means less ice
• This could runaway!
• Cooler works the other way  ice-covered
ICE
What happens with clouds?
The Earth System: Feedbacks 4
Clouds?
Clouds are difficult to predict or to figure out the
sign of their impact
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
• Warmer  more water  more clouds
• More clouds mean more reflection of solar  cooler
• More clouds mean more infrared to surface  warmer
• More or less clouds?
• Does this stabilize?
• Water in all three phases essential to stable climate
CLOUD
ATMOSPHERE
(infrared)
SURFACE
Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback
• Warming and Cooling Possible
– This is where much of the discussion about scientific
uncertainty resides.
– How clouds change has been much argued.
• The Iris Effect?
The Earth System: Feedbacks 5
Something with the Ocean?
Is there something with the ocean and ice?
• Warming ocean temperatures?
• Ice sheets melting decreases ocean salinity (density)
• Sea-ice impacts heat exchange between ocean and
atmosphere
• Sea-ice impacts solar absorption of ocean
• North Atlantic sea-ice and ocean interaction very
important to the climate
• Think Gulf Stream
• Think climate and people and economy
• Is there a natural feedback that stabilizes climate?
• Even if there is, it would be very disruptive, perhaps
not stable from a societal point of view.
The Earth System: Feedbacks 6
Something with the Land?
Is there something with the land and ice/snow?
• Warming land temperatures?
• Snow cover decreases reflection on land?
• Tundra, Arctic very important to climate stability
• Is there a natural feedback that stabilizes climate?
• Even if there is, it would be very disruptive, perhaps
not stable from a societal point of view.
Earth System: Ice
SUN
ICE:
• Very important to reflection of solar radiation
• Holds a lot of water (sea-level rise)
• Insulates ocean from atmosphere (sea-ice)
Ice impacts both radiative
balance and water – oceans
and water resources on land.
.
• Large “local” effects at
pole.
• Large global effects
through ocean circulation
and permafrost melting.
• Might change very
quickly.
OCEAN
CLOUD-WORLD
ATMOSPHERE
LAND
ICE
(cryosphere)
The Earth System: ICE
(Think a little more about ice)
non-polar
polar
glaciers
glaciers
and
(Greenland)
snow
(Antarctica)
sea-ice
Impacts regional
water supply,
agriculture, etc.
Solar reflection,
Ocean-atmosphere
heat exchange
Solar reflection,
Ocean density,
Sea-level rise
(Tour of the cryosphere, Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio)
Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback
• Some carry away messages
– The Earth is at a complex balance point
• That balance relies on water to exist in all three phases.
– Too warm could run away to “greenhouse”
– Too cold run away to “snowball” ice
vapor
– Is there something in all of this that changes the sign;
namely, that CO2 warming will be compensated by
more cooling?
• Is Earth a “regulated” system?
• Have you heard of Gaia Hypothesis?
Feedbacks
• Ice-albedo, water vapor feedback are positive and
definitive.
• Feedbacks associated with melting in the Arctic are
largely positive.
– (WWF, Literature Assessment, 2009)
• The only potentially negative feedback is associated with
clouds, which is observed.
• Complex role of particles (aerosols) in the atmosphere.
• Theoretical and observational investigation concludes
that feedbacks are substantially linear and positive.
– (Roe and Baker, Science, 2007)
Class Exercise: Weather and Climate
• Case Study: Winter storm that is
happening now.
Temperature and Moisture in Air
Moisture
Cold
Wet
Hot
Wet
Average Temperature
Cold
Dry
Hot
Dry
Summary: Class 5, Winter 2016
• Climate that we have evolved our
civilizations in is a “balanced system”
– Unique and stable
– Prone to natural change
• With stable input?
• With varying input?
Summary: Class 5, Winter 2016
• Climate that we have evolved our
civilizations in is a “balanced system”
– Unique and stable
– Prone to natural change
• With stable input?
• With varying input?
Outline: Class 5, Winter 2016
• Balance and Altering Balance
– System
– Unique
• Feedbacks
– Alter balance: Recover?
– Alter balance: Fall?
– Alter balance: New Balance?
• In class discussion: Northeast Blizzard
– Weather
– Climate
– Climate change?
Some key words so far:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Absorption
Reflection
Balance
Temperature to zero degrees
CO2 and Temperature Correlation
Societal Impacts (LIA vs MWP)
Conservation Calculating Budgets