Transcript ROAD TO DOHA

Kyoto and Beyond
ROAD
TO
DOHA
The 10th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements
related to climate change
www.isciences.com
November 16, 2012
Introduction
Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international
climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992.
Road to Doha is a summary of preparations for COP18, the 18th session of the
Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 8th session of the Conference of the
Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, which will be held
Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 in Doha, Qatar.
Other presentations in the Kyoto and Beyond series include*:
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2008 Kyoto and Beyond
2009 Kyoto and Beyond, Update
2009 Report on Copenhagen COP15
2010 Road to Cancun COP16
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2011 Report on Cancun COP16
2011 Road to Durban COP17
2012 Report on Durban COP17
2012 Road to Rio+20
2012 Report on Rio+20
* Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html
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Contents
Historical Background
Conference Overview
Multilateral Process
Issues & Positions
Possible Outcomes
This presentation includes hyperlinks to additional information indicated by underlined text.
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Background: Timeline
1997
Kyoto Protocol
adopted
1992
UN Framework
Convention on
Climate Change
2007
IPCC 4th
Assessment Report
2001
IPCC 3rd
Assessment Report
2010
Cancun Agreements
drafted at COP16
2005
Kyoto Protocol
enters into force
1992
|
1997
|
2002
|
1995
IPCC 2nd
Assessment Report
2007
|
2012
2011
Durban Platform
adopted at COP17
1990
IPCC 1st
Assessment Report
released
2009
Copenhagen
Accord drafted at
COP15
Arctic Sea Ice Extent
Sept. 1999
Arctic Sea Ice Extent
Sept. 2011
(Image Credit: NASA)
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Background: UNFCCC, 1992
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an
international climate treaty whose objective is to achieve stabilization of
greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere.
The treaty was drafted at the UN Conference on Environment and
Development (the “Earth Summit”) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1992.
(Image Credit: UNFCCC)
Called a “framework convention,” it is a starting point. Though it sets no mandatory
GHG limits or enforcement mechanisms, it provides for updates (“protocols“) to do so.
The UNFCCC entered into force in 1994 and convenes an annual “Conference of the
Parties” (COP) for its 195 members to assess progress.
“The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments …is to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate
system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate
change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable
manner.” – Article 2, UNFCCC 1992
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Background: UNFCCC, Annex Parties
The Convention divides countries into three groups according to differing
commitments.
 Annex I Parties: developed countries required to reduce
emissions. Industrialized countries who were members of
the OECD* in 1992, plus countries with economies in
transition (EIT).
 Annex II Parties: developed countries required to provide
financial resources and technology transfer to developing
countries and to EIT countries for emissions reductions.
Includes Annex I, but not EIT countries.
 Non-Annex I Parties: developing countries. The Convention
also recognizes the needs of certain groups of developing
countries who are especially vulnerable to adverse impacts
of climate change and to economic impacts of climate
change response measures.
* Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
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ANNEX I COUNTRIES
Australia
Austria
Belarus
Belgium
Bulgaria
Canada
Croatia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
European Union
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Latvia
Liechtenstein
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Monaco
Netherlands
New Zeeland
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russian Federation
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United States
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Background: COP3 Kyoto, 1997
The UNFCCC’s COP3 produced the Kyoto Protocol (KP), a legally binding
addition that assigns national limits for GHG emissions.
 The KP regulates six GHGs: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane
(CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).
 Annex I countries agreed to reduce emissions an average of 5%
below 1990; Non-Annex countries are not bound; targets vary
by country. International aviation and shipping are exempt.
(Image Credit: UNFCCC)
 The UNFCCC created national inventories of emissions/removals to establish 1990
benchmarks. To assess progress Annex I countries provide regular inventory updates.
 The KP is binding but with no severe penalty for noncompliance. It opened for signatures
in 1997, entered into force in 2005, has 193 Parties; 1st commitment period is 2008-2012.
The US did not ratify the KP, China and India (Non-Annex nations with high
emissions) are not bound by it, Canada has withdrawn, and Russia and Japan
may not commit beyond 2012.
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Background: COPs 15 & 16
Recent COPs have not engendered confidence in the ability of the multilateral
process to improve the global emissions pathway in time or at scale.
COP15 Copenhagen, Denmark, 2009 failed to establish a new agreement
to follow the KP, whose 1st commitment period expires Dec. 31, 2012.
Through a last minute, non-conference effort The Copenhagen Accord –
unofficial, non-binding and voluntary – was drafted, establishing a 2C
target for capping global temperature increase.
COP16 Cancun, Mexico, 2010 also failed to resolve the future of the KP.
Still, the Cancun Agreements included work on: Green Climate Fund;
REDD+; Measurement, Reporting, and Verification; Incorporation of the
Copenhagen Accord; & Adaptation Framework.
(Image Credit: UNFCCC)
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Background: A Milestone in 2011?
COP17 in Durban, South Africa proposed a 2nd KP period and broke new ground
by creating a roadmap for a post-KP treaty that will require commitments from
both developed and developing nations.
“Also decides to launch a process to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with
legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties …” – Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, 2011
The Durban Platform reinterpreted the UNFCC’s
“common but differentiated responsibilities”
(CBDR) principle by emphasizing common
responsibilities.
(Image Credit: UNFCCC)
“The Parties should protect the climate system …on the basis of equity
and in accordance with their common but differentiated
responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed
country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and
the adverse effects thereof.” – UNFCCC Article 3, Paragraph 1, 1992
This change may encourage influential US engagement by requiring commitments from
previously exempt nations whose emissions are substantial, such as China and India.
However, the thorny details of this new leveling must be advanced in Doha, and
the issues of respective capabilities and historical responsibility remain divisive.
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Overview: COP18 Doha 2012
COP18 will be held Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 in Doha, Qatar.
The 2012 meeting is the 18th Conference of the Parties to the
UNFCCC and the 8th session of the Conference of the Parties
serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.
The Conference will be hosted by Abdullah bin Hamad alAttiyah, President-Designate of COP18/CMP8* and Christiana
Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC. Al-Attiyah is
Director of Qatar’s Administrative Control and Transparency
Authority.
More than 17,000 people are expected, representing 195 nations
and more than 5,000 observer organizations.
* Following the procedural rules of the UNFCCC, the office of COP President and host country rotates among the 5 UN regional groups.
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Overview: COP18 Objectives
COP18’s primary objectives are to finalize the extended KP, close the LCA, and
create an all-inclusive new treaty from the directive of the Durban Platform.
 Finalize the KP 2nd Commitment Period. Adopt duration, emissions targets,
and rules.
 Close the LCA. Resolve remaining issues of the AWG-LCA (Ad Hoc Working
Group on Long-term Cooperative Action) under the Bali Action Plan* and
retire the LCA in Doha.
 Create a new treaty. Translate the all-inclusive directive of the Durban
Platform into a new, post-KP legal instrument under which all nations will
have emissions reduction targets.
* More about the Bali Action Plan http://unfccc.int/meetings/bali_dec_2007/meeting/6319.php
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Overview: Qatar’s Leadership
Hosting a climate conference in the heart of the oilproducing Gulf will test Qatar’s leadership and
commitment to the issues.
Qatar has the highest per-capita CO2 emissions in the world*,
almost double the next-highest (Kuwait), and three times the US.
Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah,
President COP 18
(Image Credit: UNFCCC)
COP18 President al-Attiyah has been prominent in
Qatar’s energy industry for 30 years and served as
Chairman of Qatar Petroleum, the state-owned
company which operates all of Qatar’s oil and gas
activities.
Qatar could improve its climate leadership by making a
mitigation pledge and persuading other Arab nations to
pledge.
* World Bank
**World Factbook 2012
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(Image Credit: Courtesy of State of Qatar,
http://www.cop18.qa)
QATAR FACTS**
 2nd highest per-capita income country,
lowest unemployment
 oil/gas 50% of GDP, 85% of export
earnings, 70% of government revenues
 oil reserves of 25 billion, enabling output
for 57 years
 natural gas reserves of 25 trillion cubic
meters, 3rd largest & 13% of world total
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Overview: Qatar’s Readiness
The wealthy nation of Qatar is not lacking in resources to comfortably host
COP18.
The Conference venue is Qatar National Convention
Centre (QNCC), a gold LEED-certified project whose
facade was inspired by the Sidra tree, a traditional
Qatari meeting place for scholars and poets.
(Image Credit: Qatar Foundation)
To raise environmental awareness mosques will host
lectures on the environment, energy, and climate change.
Qatar has increasingly positioned itself as a mediating force
in the Middle East and has hosted global summits on
economic, technological, and trade issues.
(Image Credit: Qatar National Convention Centre)
QNCC FACTS
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3 levels
40,000 square meters of exhibition space
2,300 seat theatre
three other auditoriums
57 meeting rooms
green technologies for water saving,
energy efficiency, indoor environment
quality, solar panels
These changes are part of Qatar’s stated ambition to move from a carbon
economy to a knowledge economy.
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Process: UN Preparations
The UNFCCC multilateral preparatory process for COP18 involves many
interconnected UN bodies and working groups.
(Image Credit: UNFCCC,
http://unfccc.int/bodies/items/
6241.php)
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Process: Pre-COP Meeting, Bonn
The May 2012 Bonn Climate Change Conference was tense and unproductive,
challenged by a heavy workload and bickering over procedural issues.
Delegates were charged with the onerous tasks of:
 ensuring a smooth transition between KP periods;
 aligning remaining workflows with new directives;
 interpreting the constructively ambiguous
language of the Durban Platform.
“If this slow pace of negotiations continues ... it
poses the risk of unraveling the Durban
package...We are very concerned that the spirit of
cooperation that prevailed in Durban has not carried
over into this session.” Christian Pilgaard Zinglersen,
EU delegate
Discussions were mired in lengthy bickering over agendas and election of officers, some
unresolved until the last day.
Dissention between and within negotiating blocs, as well as the formation of a new
bloc, added to the unrest and reflected the changing dynamics in the 20 years since
UNFCCC principles were forged.
Lack of progress in Bonn necessitated an additional meeting to convene in
Bangkok, presenting a financial challenge for UN resources.
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Process: Pre-COP Meeting, Bangkok
The informal additional session in Bangkok Aug. 30-Sept. 5, though confusing
at times, ultimately eased tensions from Bonn and put negotiations on track.
Legal transition to a 2nd KP period* requires an amendment and ratification. Options
were discussed that may enable countries to participate while awaiting ratification.
Plans for resolving elements under the LCA** were divided, with
developed countries contending that issues have been concluded
or integrated while developing countries disagreed.
UN Building, Thailand
(Image Credit: United Nations Thailand)
Two Durban Platform*** work streams established in Bonn were initiated in Bangkok:
enhancing mitigation ambition pre-2020, and the post-2020 regime. “Universality of
application,” said some, should not become “uniformity of application.”
By the end of the session most parties agreed that some progress had been
made on all three tracks.
* AWG-KP, Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol; **AWG-LCA, Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the
Convention; ***ADP, Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action
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Process: Conference Schedule
The 12-day gathering at COP18 in Doha includes meetings of CMP, SBI,
SBSTA, AWG-KP, AWG-LCA, and ADP.
SCHEDULE OF MEETINGS
CMP – Conference of the Parties service as the Meeting of
the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol
SBI – Subsidiary Body for Implementation
SBSTA – Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice
AWG-KP – Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments
for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol
AWG-LCA – Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term
Cooperative Action under the Convention
ADP – Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for
Enhanced Action
SESSION
DATE
AGENDA
COP 18
26 Nov – 7 Dec 2012
FCCC/CP/2012/1
CMP 8
26 Nov – 7 Dec 2012
FCCC/KP/CMP/2012/1
SBI 37
26 Nov – 1 Dec 2012
FCCC/SBI/2012/16
SBSTA 37
26 Nov – 1 Dec 2012
FCCC/SBSTA/2012/3
AWG-KP 17-2
27 Nov - 7 Dec 2012
AWGKP/2012/AGENDA
AWG-LCA 15-2
27 Nov - 7 Dec 2012
AWGLCA/2012/AGENDA
ADP 1-2
28 Nov - 7 Dec 2012
ADP/2012/AGENDA
(Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons)
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Issues: KP2, Transition
Ensuring a smooth transition to the KP 2nd commitment period at this late date
will be challenging, with many details yet to be resolved.
Ratification. Legal transition to a 2nd period Jan. 1, 2013
requires an amendment to the KP. Without enough time for
countries to ratify, parties may be encouraged to hastily apply
the amendment “provisionally,” if constitutionally possible,
pending full ratification.
Duration. The EU favors an 8-yr period (2013-2020) in line with
their own targets for 2020. Developing countries are pushing
for 5 years (2013-2017), fearing a longer period will only delay
action by major emitters.
Players. Australia, New Zealand, and Ukraine may join KP2. Japan and Russia have
opted out.
* See also Possible elements for a Doha decision adopting the Kyoto Protocol amendments
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Issues: KP2, “Hot Air”
The “hot air” details of the 2nd KP period – new emissions targets and carryover of surplus carbon credits – must also be resolved in Doha.
Emissions targets. The IPCC* recommends a 25-40% reduction
by 2020* for developed countries. (As in KP1, developing
nations make nonbinding pledges.) The EU might jump from
20% to 30%, but not alone. To increase ambition parties may be
allowed to raise targets mid-way through KP2.
Carbon credits. Under KP1 countries beating their target can
sell excess units (AAUs**). Doha must reconcile surplus AAUs
from KP1 to KP2. Credit carry-over could flood the market and
suppress ambition. No carry-over could penalize achievement.
Flexibility mechanisms. Eligibility rules must be set for access to mechanisms like
the CDM***. Access granted if: Joined KP1? Joined KP2? All parties to UNFCCC?
* IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; By 2020 – compared to 1990 levels
** AAU–assigned amount unit
***CDM–Clean Development Mechanism
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Issues: LCA
The Durban Platform stipulates that the LCA* be retired at COP18, assuming
its work is concluded or successfully transitioned.
The LCA advances goals established by the Bali Action Plan
(2007) and encompasses over 55 agenda items on financing;
monitoring, reporting, and verifying; equity; intellectual
property rights; and increasing ambition in line with science.
The EU and US maintain that most issues have been resolved or
can be transitioned to permanent UN subsidiary bodies, while
the LDCs** and China argue that this would be a premature
and ineffective dispatch.
Doha must successfully resolve this impasse before negotiations can move on to
productive discussion of the post-Kyoto treaty.
* LCA - Ad-Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention
** LDCs – Least Developed Countries
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Issues: 2020 Treaty, “Vision”
Negotiators must begin the delicate task of defining how the Durban Platform
vision of “applicable to all” will be actualized in a post-2020 treaty.
In the new era all parties will have binding targets. The
smoldering challenge is to reconcile UNFCCC’s 20-year
embedded principle of CBDR* with the contemporary
geopolitical reality of emissions sources.
Creative phrasing is being explored that supports universal,
though not uniform, application: “dynamic differentiation,”
“actionable differentiation,” “graduated levels of
differentiation.”
(Image Credit: World Resources Institute, 2005)
By framing Convention principles as “enduring but dynamic” negotiators might
breathe enough flexibility into the new treaty to bind all parties while recognizing
different capabilities and responsibilities. “The ADP* airplane has taken off… it may be too early to
* CBDR – common but differentiated responsibilities
* ADP – Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action
unbuckle our seatbelts because of turbulence ahead, but we are
flying, and the journey has begun.” Delegate in Bangkok, 2012
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Issues: 2020 Treaty, “Ambition”
Parties are also charged with increasing the level of ambition to close the gap
between pledged cuts and targets recommended to keep warming to 2C.
Raising the level of ambition prior to 2020 is critical
to a meaningful outcome post-2020.
Options include:
"…the fact is that all of those efforts
actually represent 60 percent of the
global effort that needs to be made if we
are to keep to a 2 degree (global
temperature) rise.” – Christiana Figueres,
UNFCCC Executive Secretary, 2012
 Increasing the number of countries making pledges;
(Image Credit: UNFCCC)
 Increasing the ambition of existing pledges, and;
 Recognizing supplementary actions at sub-national, national and international
levels.
Accounting and transparency must also be addressed. One study* suggests that
national GHG inventories reported to the UNFCCC may understate emissions by as
much as 25%.
* Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledge
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Issues: Too late for 2?
The UNFCCC’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has called for
global emissions cuts of 25%-40% by 2020 to keep global temperature rise to
2 C.
“To be quite candid the idea of a 2 C target is largely
out of the window.” – Professor Robert Watson, former
IPCC chair
Putting the world on a low-carbon diet
means reducing the annual global emissions
budget to 44 Gigatonnes (GtCO2eq) by 2020
to limit warming to +2C.*
The current track projects 47.9 to 53.6 Gt.*
“The global economy now needs to cut carbon intensity
by 5.1% every year from now to 2050. To give ourselves
a more than 50% chance of avoiding 2 degrees will
require a six-fold improvement in our rate of
decarbonisation. ” – PwC, Nov. 2012
“I am very worried … It is becoming extremely challenging to remain below
2 degrees. The prospect is getting bleaker. That is what the numbers say.“
– Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency, 2011***
Even if CO2 levels are stabilized, global temperature will continue to increase for
decades.**
The likelihood of limiting increase of global average temperature to no more
than 2°C is increasingly remote.
* GtCO2eq (Gigatonnes CO2 equivalents); WWF, Plugging the Gigatonne Gap.
** http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/reports-in-brief/Stabilization-Targets-Final.pdf
*** http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/23/733041/august-23-news-former-ipcc-chair-watson-says-2c-target-is-largely-out-of-the-window/; PricewaterhouseCoopers,
LLC,. Too late for two degrees? Low carbon economy index 2012; http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/29/carbon-emissions-nuclearpower
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Outcomes: KP2 as the Bridge
Realistically, KP2 is shaping up to be a very rickety bridge to the proposed
“superhighway” of a globally inclusive post-KP regime.
KP2’s genetic inheritance includes flaws:
 too few participants;
 insufficient incentives;
 no ability to adapt to new conditions in which the developing world
will soon overtake industrialized nations in emissions.
Still, the Protocol is a useful experiment in prescriptive mechanisms:
(Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons)
 flexibility in domestic decision-making;
 market-based policy instruments – emissions trading schemes, project-level trades
among Annex I countries (Joint Implementation), and project-level offsets in
developing countries used to meet obligations in Annex I countries (CDM).
If the KP2 bridge doesn’t collapse in Doha it will have succeeded, if only in
providing passage to the new, all-inclusive regime.
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Conclusion: Politics & Nature
As always, UN climate negotiations will be influenced by economics, politics,
and nature.
Lessons from KP will instruct the equity concepts and policy instruments in the post2020 treaty, perhaps leading to progressive targets based on per capita income, and
sector-based new market mechanisms.
Complementary coalitions will evolve that augment
UNFCCC’s multinational platform.
Barack Obama’s reelection may move US energy policy
in a more climate-friendly direction. And, nature will
unleash its own incentives through climate-related
weather events of increasing frequency and intensity.
Hurricane Sandy, US East Coast, 2012
(Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons)
Watch for ISciences’ post-Doha analysis of COP18 at
http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html.
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Final Thought
“Is the mean temperature of the ground in any way influenced by
the presence of the heat-absorbing gases in the atmosphere?”
Svante Arrhenius, Swedish scientist, 1896
It has been over 100 years since Arrhenius correctly answered
his own question by calculating how changes in the levels of
CO2 in our atmosphere could alter surface temperature
through the greenhouse effect.
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Citation
When referencing this presentation please use the following citation.
ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Road to Doha COP18. A slideshow; 10th installment in the series
Kyoto and Beyond – the Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate
Change. November 16, 2012. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com.
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