Transcript vi environment, climate change and sustainable development

Environment, Climate Change and
Sustainable Development
Economics 3510: African Economic Development, Week Six
Outline of Presentation:
Reasons for more environmental focus in Africa
Air pollution measurement and trends
Water quality and availability
Deforestation indicators and trends
Environmental analysis: four tools to use
Applying these tools: water and the Volta Dam;
deforestation in Ethiopia; Nigeria’s wetlands
• Global climate change and Africa
• Mitigation and adaptation strategies
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1:Why more environmental focus?
1) Growing world focus (eg. Sulphor dioxide) 2) Africa
seen as fragile land area 3) UN and World Bank
changes such as UNEP 4) Increasing environment
threats in Africa
2: Air pollution
measurement and trends
• Urban air pollution measured in main cities
• Measured in micrograms (over 10 microns) per
cubic meter
• WHO safe level is 20
• Over that can bring respiratory and heart disease,
lung cancer
• Carbon emissions also measured
• Millions of metric tons per country released
• These are greenhouse gases (GHGs) adding to
global warming
What do measurements show?
Main points from data
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African urban air pollution high
Compare to East Asia
In all countries above WHO levels
Note Botswana, Nigeria, Senegal very high
South Africa has the best record
But it contributes most carbon emissions
Africa’s emissions small overall but growing
Some countries increasing very fast
Some city data alarming
• WHO: most European
and US cities under 20
• Urban China level 82
• Dakar in 2011 at 179
• Mauritius (Port Louis) at
131 – why?
• Johannesburg at 98
despite low average
• Accra at 98
OECD Study (Roy, 2016)
• Shows deaths from household air pollution in Africa
up from 396,094 in 1990 to 466,079 in 2013
• Deaths from ambient pollution up from 181,291 to
246,403
• Rate of change accelerating from 5.3% to 8.3%
• Coincides with other environmental and health
dangers bringing death, such as unsafe water,
unsafe sanitation, child malnutrition
• Air pollution deaths rising while other rates down
somewhat
• Nigeria (100,000+,) Ethiopia (79,000,) DRC (68,000)
3: Water & sanitation
• OECD chart shows unsafe water and sanitation
problems even greater, though declining
somewhat
• Partly reflects water availability constraints (11 of 14
cities with serious regular water shortages)
• Little improvement in urban sanitation 1990-2015
• Though has been better urban water access
• Sanitation declines in Nigeria (38% to 33%,) Sudan
(52% to 44%,) Eritrea (59% to 45%)
• Large gains in Mauritania (29 to 58%,) Tanzania (6 to
31%,) Niger (19 to 38%,) Benin (18 to 36%)
• Urban water access decline in Sudan (86 to 66%)
Key water pollution
points
• Industrial pollution growing in 8 of 14 countries,
especially where sanitation is low
• Food/beverage industry main problems, also
textiles, chemicals in Cameroon and Senegal,
wood industry in Ghana
• Pollution shows up in major interconnected way in
various examples:
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Tamale food supply in northern Ghana
Port Harcourt water supply in Nigeria
Kampala disease results in Uganda
Akaki river in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Two examples
Source: Green Hills, Blue Cities, UNEP, 2011
4: Deforestation
Why it matters
Trends in Africa – rate of decline 0.48% annually
Related to pressures to grow agriculture
Also logging – some of it illegal (Cameroon, Burundi)
Role of fuel wood important
Tied to population increase, also to reliance on this
source for cooking et al (over 95% of Uganda
population uses fuel-wood as main energy source)
• Is this too alarmist? Can fuel wood be sourced
sustainably?
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Key points
• Reforestation common
but declines in Africa
• 12 of 24 over 1% yearly
• 6 of 24 over 2%
• 18 of 24 with rates rising
• Nigeria and Togo very
high – Sudan and Niger
with big improvements
• Picture of rainforest in
Ghana (where logging
has been extensive)
Key points
• Deforestation most common concern (20 nations)
• Water and/or air pollution in 17
• The table highlights 3 countries with five areas of
major concern
• Also 2 countries with four areas
• Plus are countries with concentrated threats like
Senegal with its high Dakar air pollution – South
Africa with its high Johannesburg pollution –
Uganda with its serious Kampala water pollution
• Review shows environmental concerns major in
Africa – how should we approach them?
5: Environmental analysis
tools
• Four key concepts to
use from economics
a. Externalities
b. Public goods
c. Common property
resources
d. Social cost-benefit
analysis (SCBA)
a) Externalities
• Costs (or benefits) to society or households that do not
have to be paid for by those undertaking actions
• Such as dumping waste into Akaki River in Addis
• How measure such costs?
 Willingness to Pay surveys
 Indirect market indicators
 Direct damages estimates
• How can firms be brought to internalize costs?
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Tax levies (eg. on coal)
Cap and trade systems
Court actions (local and international)
But these depend on property rights while many environmental benefits
are “public goods”
b) Public goods
• As noted earlier, nobody can be excluded from
“consuming” public goods (and consuming them
does not use them up, preventing access by others)
• Clean air and safe water classic public goods
• But that means no “market” for such goods
• WTP surveys undercut by “free rider” problem
• Direct damages do not measure discomfort
• So underestimate of social costs
• Though African unhappiness with water/sanitation
services from government show in surveys
c) Common property
resources
• “Open access” common property resources: users
can enter freely to collect/sell outputs
• Such as fuel wood, logs from forests, fish from waters
• Private gains for each additional user positive but
social costs for all users from resource degradation
• Note “magumba” fishery in Mozambique
• Not all common property resources “open access”
• Examples of community management in fish and
forestry (see supplementary reading)
• But external pressures can break this down (as in
Wenchi, Ghana)
d) Social cost-benefit
analysis (SCBA)
• This tool can encompass externalities, include value
measures for public goods and examine long-term
effects of common-property resources
• Can evaluate options, bring socially-based choices
• Private cost-benefit analysis looks at private values
year-by-year over project’s life, discounts to present
• SCBA does the same, using social valuations
• Discount value also likely different
• Look at simple example from text
NPV = Σ [ (Bt - Ct ) / (1 + i )t ]
Implementing SCBA
• Example shows how SCBA leads to different choice
• Similar distinctions in Hardisty example in text
• But how can policy makers see SCBA reflected in
private company decisions?
• Environmental assessment requirement for projects
• Regulation of emissions
• Tax policy – coal tax of $200 per year in CBA would
lead to negative net present value of -$179
• Lets see how SCBA and other tools help us to
understand various African cases
6) Cases: Volta Dam, Ghana
• Case with environment
externalities ignored
• No SCBA used
• Plan began pre-1940
• Carried on by Nkrumah
• Make electricity, turn
bauxite into aluminum
• First companies
backed out, replaced
in bauxite-import plan
• Began in 1965
Major environmental costs
a. Changed river flow brings disease – schistosomiasis,
onchocerciasis, malaria
b. Changed flooding on south Volta hurts farming
c. Fishing losses, deforestation in delta area
d. Land loss, deforestation, erosion around Lake
e. Poor handling of population displacement
f. Open-access common property problems of
resource degradation in Lake Volta fisheries
• Ghana having to deal with many of these problems
now with remedial measures
Cases: Baro-Akobo basin, Ethiopia
• Deforestation is issue
• High rate in country
• Common property
resources historically –
with community control
• Changed by 1975 Land
Reform under the Derg
• “Open access” result
• 1.6% loss in area yearly
over 1985-2010 – 28,916
ha. annually (Sutcliffe)
SCBA to assess losses
• Benefits: 1400 kg./hectare of maize @ $153/tonne -$215.60/hectare
o Less crop damage from animals -- $7.40/ha
o Soil sediment runoffs to Sudan
o Total $223.11/ha x 28,916 ha -- $6.4 million
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Costs: Sustainable wood output -- $1210/ha
Non-wood products (honey, coffee) $17.77/ha
CO2 absorption 49.5 tonnes/ha $153.75/ha
Soil erosion costs, biodiversity losses too
Total $1693.22/ha or $48.9 million
Net social losses $42.5 million yearly
Ethiopia working hard on participatory forest
management initiatives to replace such losses
Cases: Kafue Flats, Zambia
• Wetlands area, with
open access fisheries
• 250 x 60 km. between
gorge and dam
• Activities run by local
community rules for
fishing, hunting, cattle
• Changed with
colonialism, again after
independence
Changing pressures
• Sugar cane in east,
colonial hunting ban
• New dams raise access
• Job pressures, urban
poverty bring migrants
• Pushed by women fish
traders’ high demand
• Open-access common
property system cuts
fish catches – 10 to 6 to
3 metric tonnes
Case: Hadejia-Nguru
wetlands, Nigeria
• Provides agricultural,
fishing, forestry income,
groundwater recharge
• But upstream projects
threaten such benefits
via irrigation diversion
• Cannot just look at net
benefits of such
projects, must compare
them to social costs to
those in wetlands say
Barbier et al
Citation: Olalekan EI, Abimbola LM, Saheed M, Damilola OA (2014) Wetland Resources of Nigeria: Case Study of the Hadejia-Nguru W
Poult Fish Wildl Sci 2: 123. doi:10.4172/2375-446X.1000123
Figure 2: Map showing the location of the Hadejia-Nguru Wetland in Nigeria [11].
e Hadejia-Nguru Wetlands
e Hadejia-Nguru Wetlands is a wide expanse of
wetlands situated in the northeast Nigeria, the location lie
sudanosahelian zone, which is the zone between the Sudanian
in the south and the Sahel in the North. e wetland is found
state, located in the northern part of Nigeria, which include th
lake (Figure 2) [11]. According to [7], the Nguru Lake and th
Channel complex, which is a section of the Hadejia Nguru We
located on the Latitude 10°22’N and Longitude 12°46’E. e ca
area of the wetlands covers an area of about 3,500 km2, which
two rivers, the Hadejia and the Jama’are, which ows and c
into the Chad Lake. e wetlands are notably known for rech
replenishment of underground water in the Komadugu-Yobe
is an ecological and economical rich habitat for biodiversity o
SCBA for wetlands
• Kano irrigation project net benefit 233 Naira/ha
• Compare to net benefits of wetlands: 838 Naira/ha
from crops, especially cowpeas and rice; 300
Naira/ha from fishing; 139 Naira/ha from fuelwood
• All calculated on 50 year basis at 8% discount rate
• Plus are social benefits of wetlands harder to put
numbers to, such as groundwater sourcing in dry
area, grazing for Fulani herds during dry season
• Can work out net benefits per 1000 cu. M. of water
used – 0.3 Naira for Kano project vs. 565 for wetland
• Very high opportunity cost for water loss to project
Questions from cases
• How useful are the four economic tools?
• Can these tools be put into practice?
• What is the most important conclusion you draw
from the four cases?
• Move on from this review of existing environmental
concerns to emerging threats from global climate
change
7) Global climate change
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) set up in 1988
• Under UNEP and World Meteorological Organization
• 195 member countries – 5 reports, latest 2014
• Scientific approach, noting areas where high
confidence in findings, others less clear-cut
• Stress urgency in latest report, importance of action
for Africa
• Backdrop to 2015 Paris Climate Conference and its
conclusions and draft treaty
Key 2014 IPCC findings
• Warmest 30 yrs. in 800
with Arctic ice melt, rise in
sea levels and acidity
• Anthropogenic factors
likely cause half of this,
via GHG rise (2.2% yrly.)
• Damage to crop levels,
coral reefs (and fish,)
severe climate events
• Continuity means 2.20
temperature rise, sea
level gain .48 m by 2100
• Flood, food, disease
and wildfire damage to
humans to be serious
• Adaptation is change
to lessen-avoid this
• Mitigation is reducing
emissions as a counter
• IPCC stresses both
• But adaptation is hard
for poorer households
to carry out it says, so
must be mitigation too
Main Africa points
• 3 broad weather
systems interact
• Inter-tropical
Convergence Zone,
West African Monsoon
and El Nino Southern
Oscillation (ENSO)
• Make effects stronger
• Special IPCC study led
by Senegal,Namibia
scientists, many others
IPCC Africa Predictions
• Higher temperature rise than elsewhere to come,
more rainfall stress (lower in south, higher in east)
• Will shift biomes, increase deserts
• High risks of crop decreases (millet/sorghum in west,
maize in south) – to bring child malnutrition
• Livestock losses likely from drought
• Could be 25% rise in malaria as spreads to highlands
• High risk to coral, fish stocks (inland, too)
• 40 cm. sea rise would hit 10 million in 4 countries
• Refugee flows, perhaps conflict, likely to result
Implications
• Climate pressures to hurt
poor, more gender gaps
• Climate change makes
environment issues even
more crucial
• Africa’s inequity clear
• Not much help from
global climate aid (like
Clean Technology Fund,
REDD+, “fast start”)
• So Africa must act on
own as with green energy
initiatives (in picture)
8) Conclusions
• Environment has become major concern as air
pollution worsens, water/sanitation pressures impact
and deforestation interacts with climate change
• Looked at four tools for analysis
• Saw their value in case studies in four countries
• Then examined dynamic of global climate change
• Clearly are powerful threats emerging
• Hard for Africa to adapt to these, mitigation needs
world level action, given role of GHGs
• 2015 Paris Convention drafted treaty, but will it be
respected as the world’s political leaders change?
• Green Belt Movement shows community role