Transcript The Greatest Threat to Mankind?: Hard Choice Ahead

Climate Change – The Greatest Threat to Mankind?
Hard Choices Ahead
Diocescan Synod - 18th March 2006
Keith Tovey
Lay Chairman – Norwich East
CRed
Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre
School of Environmental Sciences, UEA
Climate Change
Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
Summer ice coverage of
Artic Polar Region
NASA satellite imagery
2003
1979
CRed
20% reduction in 24 years
Source: Nasa www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
2/10
Our Choices: They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore
wind and biomass.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal?
•then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
•unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years
UNLIKELY
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued
exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation?
>>>>>>
3/10
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
• we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of
Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS
option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
4/10
On average each person in
UK causes the emission of 9
tonnes of CO2 each year.
How many people know what
9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person
per year.
Around 4 million in he Norfolk
"Nobody made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because he
thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
5/10
Raising Awareness
• Computers do NOT switch off when using the soft “SHUT
DOWN”. Typically they will waste 60 kg CO2 a year.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume
of 1 party balloon.
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 20 kWh per year
~ 1000 balloons each year.
• Standby on electrical appliances
80+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons.
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
•
Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank – 40 litres)
--------- 90 kg of CO2
(5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc
Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old
persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
6/10
Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project: Involving the Community
Solar Collectors installed 27th
January 2004
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
7/10
Hard Choices
What can we as individuals do?
What can you do collectively as a Church?
Visit the CRed WEB Site
www.cred-uk.org
Sign a pledge to
•
combat global warming
•
help secure a sustainable environment for our children
•
help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming
•
help secure energy supplies for the future
saving energy
Adopting technical solutions
Promoting Awareness
Promoting appropriate renewable energy
8/10
Conclusions
• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades
• Energy Security will become increasingly important.
Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make
Energy Insecurity more likely in future.
• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL
generation of energy
It is as much about the individual’s response to use
of energy as any technical measures the
Government may take.
• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives
for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.
Otherwise Nuclear ??? (but accessible uranium is limited)
• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming –
Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us. >>
9/10
Conclusions
• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of
whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room
WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org
This presentation will be available from
tomorrow:
follow Academic Resources link
Are you up to the Challenge?:
Will you make a pledge?
"If you do not change direction, you
may end up where you are heading."
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
Act of Commitment
• As we celebrate the goodness, diversity and wonder of God’s creation, we admit
our collective guilt in allowing species to become so swiftly extinct, in depleting
finite energy and raw materials, and in polluting the earth’s soil, water and
atmosphere. Let us be ready to change the way we think and live.
• Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come.
• Let us commit ourselves, as individuals and within our churches, to do all we can
to heal and restore the damage people have caused to God’s earth, and to develop
sustainable lifestyles, both for ourselves and to inspire others.
• Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come.
• Let us commit ourselves to do all in our power to support church communities
planning a better way of living in their localities.
• Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come.
Act of Commitment
• Let each of us commit ourselves to play our part and take what action we can to
cherish God’s creation.
• Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come.
We pledge to pray and work for an environmentally sustainable
and socially just world, in the interest of all earth’s Inhabitants,
both present and future generations, and for the well-being and
flourishing of the whole earth.