Transcript A. The Basics of Global Climate Change

Climate Change and
Sustainable Development
Presentation to Hanoi University
Koos Neefjes, UNDP-VN, 13 April 2010
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Our Common Future (WCED, 1987)
Sustainable development is
“development that meets the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own
needs”
This
“does imply … limitations imposed by the present state of
technology and social organisation on environmental resources and
by the ability of the biosphere to absorb the effects of human
activities. But technology and social organisation can be both
managed and improved to make way for a new era of economic
growth.”
Contents
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A.
The basics of global climate change
B.
Effects & impacts of climate change
C.
GHG mitigation
D.
The UN and climate change
E.
Conclusions
A. The Basics of
Global Climate Change
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What is global climate change?
“the variation of the global climate over time”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):
 Global temperature rise by 2100, by 1.8oC to 6.4oC
 Most of the warming is because of human activities
 Sea level rise up to 59cm predicted by 2100, but if the
West Antarctic ice sheet collapses several meters
 Maximum and minimum temperatures will rise
 More hot days over land areas and fewer cold days
 More extreme events: rainfall, droughts, cyclones ….
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Causes
Green House Effect:
“the increase in the Earth's average temperature”
Green house gasses: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane,
nitrous oxide: anthropogenic warming
Aerosols (e.g. dust): some cooling
Tropospheric ozone changes (e.g. hydrocarbons):
warming
Land use changes: net cooling (radiation increase)
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Key terms
Global commons: climate is a public good
Green House Effect
El Niño and La Niña
The UNFCCC – United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (1994)
The Kyoto Protocol (emissions targets) (2002)
The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM: carbon
credits that can be traded)
The Conference of Parties to the UNCCC (COP 15
12/2009): emissions & adaptation targets?
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Temperature &
CO2
Rising emissions during
1856 to 2004, especially
from using fossil fuel
CO2 emissions per capita
In 1990 & 2004, for example :
US, Russia, Viet Nam, Ethiopia
Viet Nam is low, but rising rapidly.
Common but differentiated
responsibility for the carbon
footprint
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Limits to
emissions
growth
The 21st
Century carbon
budget is set at
1,456 Gt CO2
to keep within
2°C and avoid
dangerous
climate change.
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Sustainable
emissions
pathway
• The world
cut 50 % by 2050
• Developed
countries cut 80 %
by 2050
• Developing
countries cut 20 %
by 2050
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B.
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Effects & Impacts
of Climate Change
Victims
Poor countries
 Small Island States
 Low countries, deltas, coastal zones
 People with livelihoods depending on natural resources
 The poorest and most vulnerable (elderly, children)
 Basic services: (local) schools, clinics, … water
 Poor rural and urban communities
 Industries, urban areas, especially if low lying, coastal
 Ecosystems: external shocks
 Wildlife, on land and in seas
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Increased “vulnerability”:
Of specific people (/groups) to specific “events”:
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Sea level rise, enhanced saline water intrusion
More extreme floods (rainy season) & droughts (dry season);
heat waves
Increased frequency and intensity of typhoons; and changed
landfall patterns
Increasing water shortages and growing demand
Spread of plant pests and diseases
Spread of disease vectors (dengue, malaria)
Increased vulnerabilities of the poorer groups, to a range of
threats … a threat to human development
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C. GHG Mitigation
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Avoiding
Dangerous Global Climate Change?
50% likelihood if ….
 Limit warming to 2oC above pre-industrial levels
 Stabilize atmospheric concentration CO2 at 450 ppm
 Pathway for 50% emissions reduction implemented
 Rich countries cut emissions by 30% by 2020 and 80% by
2050
 International cooperation on technology transfer and
finance for CC Adaptation and GHG Mitigation
 Part of wider strategies of poverty alleviation and (CC)
vulnerability reduction
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Developing countries &
GHG emissions
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“common but differentiated responsibilities” for historic
increase in atmospheric CO2 (the main GHG)
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Massive increase in energy demand: electricity (coal !),
transport, …. as a result of economic growth
Inefficient energy use / low tech production facilities / wastful
behaviour
Increasing GHG emissions from agriculture with population
growth, and especially with economic growth (meat, dairy)
Biodiversity degradation continues and e.g. increased risk of
forest fires (Indochina, Indonesia, ….)
How to cut GHG emissions ?
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Mitigation targets of rich countries & large countries(!?)
Taxation and cap-and-trade of carbon, to stimulate
innovation & technology transfer, and create revenue for
CC adaptation, especially in developing countries
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs):
opportunities for economic and social development
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Raise awareness and save costs
High-tech, innovation (invest in R&D; financial instruments)
Develop and implement standards and regulation
Agricultural options for mitigation: wetland rice, biogas
Trees can protect coasts, retain water; especially Reduced
Emissions for Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)
D. The UN and Climate Change
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CC support by the UN: examples
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Climate: a global common good (so: the UN!)
Convene members, and agree: the UNFCCC; policy
dialogues & coordination (internationally, nationally)
CC Adaptation: new initiatives on disaster mitigation
(Hyogo); agriculture; health & education; urban planning;
massive infrastructure investments needed
GHG Mitigation: improve energy efficiency with behaviour
change and investment; mainstream, e.g. improve energy
access of poor households and small enterprises;
stimulate technological innovation; develop REDD; etc
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CC policy challenges for
developed nations
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Reduce emissions, now, against stricter targets than
previously agreed (Kyoto ….)
A “Green New Deal” and not just bailing out the banks
Create new financing mechanisms, with new finance
Enable technology transfer, including those patented
Ensure that (international) carbon markets actually do help
(global) sustainability
Support, develop, finance, large scale (regional) studies and
investments for adaptation infrastructure
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CC policy challenges for
developing nations
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Formulate national strategies, plans, targets, actions
Technical, and policy-research capacity (costs!)
CC not yet seen as a human development issue
Lack of awareness and civil society mobilization
Capacity building needs (CC policy, invstmnt plans)
Develop market signals (tax, subsidy) & strengthen
regulatory capacity
No financial resources but huge investment needs
Identify “no regret” investments
Carbon (cap and) trade & the CDM hardly function
(except for China, India, Brazil, Mexico …)
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E. Conclusions
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Dangerous climate change?
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The Gaia Hypothesis (James Lovelock, 1979): the Earth is
a super-organism, with the atmosphere, oceans, the
biosphere, and soil all part of the complex system;
disturbance can cause ‘sustained oscillation between two or
more undesirable states’.
IPCC (2007): Lovelock was right, but so far we have made
things only worse. Average warming of maximum 2 oC
above pre-industrial levels gives a 50% chance to avoid it
… and a 50% chance that we fail to avoid it.
This ambitious target is not ambitious enough!
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Climate change and
sustainable development
The causes of CC demonstrate a disregard for “future
generations”
The causes of climate change are often also causes of other
problems, especially air pollution and related health problems
Without addressing the causes of climate change no country or
individual can claim to be on a path towards sustainable
development.
Mind game
Dangerous CC is real but we spend 1-2% global GDP: we
mitigate the causes and the effects, meaning generate new
economic activity and save lives, today and for generations to
come
Dangerous CC does not happen and we spend 1-2% global
GDP: we generate new, clean technologies and reduce risks
for climate disasters, today and …
Dangerous CC is real but we do nothing: bad things will
happen, for many generations
Dangerous CC does not happen and we do nothing: our
grandchildren are very very lucky but will be unimpressed with
their ancestors for gambling with their lives
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4.
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Collapsed
bridge in
Thanh Hoa:
cut off from
school
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Mekong Delta
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Hanh (9) and friends identified this evacuation
road as a priority for improvement (Tien Giang)
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Storm & Flood proofed school
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Climate change & future generations
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Enhanced disasters affect children disproportionately
(health, food security, child mortality, education)
“Hospitals safe from disasters”; and schools!
Children as communicators and change agents in Disaster
Risk Reduction; creating livelihood opportunities; improving
basic services
Children are the future: discuss CC scenarios in
“Vulnerability and Adaptation” (V&A) assessments
GHG mitigation, awareness and (technological, economic)
opportunities: nobody can argue with co-benefits (of trees,
clean energy, etc) and picking low hanging fruits
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Thank you!!
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