Transcript Basin Study Advisory Group Meeting #2 Presentation 8

West Salt River Valley
Basin Study
Advisory Group
Meeting #2
August 20, 2015
Today’s Agenda
Welcome & Opening Comments
Meeting Objectives
Basin Study Overview
Groundwater Model
Recharge Screening Analysis Study
Supply and Demand Studies
Participant Discussion
Next Steps & Action Items
Closing Comments & Adjourn
2
What is WESTCAPS?
• West Valley CAP Subcontractors
• Collaboration of municipal and private water
providers, and interested water agencies,
working together to develop regional solutions
to plan for the future of water in the West
Valley.
• Our Mission is to develop a cost effective,
quality water supply; engage in water resource
planning and management; and develop
regional partnerships for water in the West
Valley.
3
WESTCAPS Members
Members:
Arizona Water Co
City of Avondale
City of Buckeye
City of El Mirage
EPCOR Water
City of Glendale
City of Goodyear
City of Peoria
City of Phoenix
City of Surprise
City of Tolleson
Interested Parties:
Bureau of Reclamation (BOR)
AZ Department of Water Resources
(ADWR)
Central Arizona Project (CAP)
• Central Arizona Water
Conservation District (CAWCD)
• Central Arizona Groundwater
Replenishment District (CAGRD)
Salt River Project (SRP)
AZ State Land Department (ASLD)
4
Previous Work
• Groundwater Supply Study
Funding = Studies
• Population & Water Demand Projections
• Maricopa Water District (MWD) Beardsley Canal
Hydraulic Capacity Study
• Cross Drainage on the Beardsley Canal
• Infrastructure Strategic Plans
• East/West Pipeline alignment
• Regional Brackish Groundwater Study
• Recharge/Reuse Inventory
• Regional Pipeline Transmission (North/South alignment)
• Groundwater Model Integration
Available at www.WESTCAPS.org
5
Key Accomplishments
• Study the amount of sustainable groundwater pumping
in Buckeye Waterlogged Area
• Start integration of West Salt River Valley (SRV) and
Hassayampa Groundwater Models
• Study brackish groundwater treatment plant
opportunities in the Southwest Valley
White Tanks Water Treatment Plant
Hassayampa River Recharge Facility6
Meeting Objectives
•Explain Basin Study Objectives
•Provide an Update on Progress
•Encourage Input & Discussion
•Explain Next Steps
7
West Salt River Valley
Basin Study
Advisory Group Update
Mitchell Haws
Study Manager
Phoenix Area Office
[email protected]
623-773-6274
Study
Partners
City of Avondale
Arizona Water Company
City of Buckeye
City of El Mirage
EPCOR
City of Glendale
Global Water
City of Goodyear
City of Peoria
City of Phoenix
City of Surprise
City of Tolleson
Study Advisors
Arizona Department of Water Resources
Audubon Society
Central Arizona Groundwater Replenishment District
Central Arizona Project
Gila River Indian Community
Roosevelt Irrigation District
SRP
The Nature Conservancy
Audubon
Study Requirements
Each Basin Study will include four elements:
1. Projections of water supply and demand, including an assessment of risks to the
water supply relating to climate change.
2. Analysis of how existing water and power infrastructure and operations will perform
in the face of changing water realities, such as population growth and climate change.
3. Development of options to improve operations and infrastructure to supply
adequate water in the future.
4. A trade-off analysis of the options identified, findings and recommendations as
appropriate.
Questions for WESTCAPS
Basin Study
• What is the potential for imported water supply to decrease?
– Trigger thresholds in Lake Mead, Colorado River Basin Study
– Will Salt River Project Reductions increase pumping?
• What is the potential for increased groundwater pumping,
– due to reduced imported water supply?
– due to increased demand from population growth or increased
ag demand?
• What are the probabilities of exceeding the thresholds from GW
Management Act (Assured Water Supply) across the WSRV Basin?
West Salt River Valley
Basin Study Will Include:
• Updated Water Demand and Supply Studies
• Updated and Combine Ground Water Model
– Recharge Screening Analysis
– Various Planning Scenarios
– Include Climate Change Analysis
• Updated Economics Modeling
• Trade-off Analysis and Recommendations
Study Task Teams
• Supply Task Team – Christine Nunez
• Demand Task Team – Jake Lenderking
• Groundwater Modeling Task Team – John
Rasmussen
• Climate Change Task Team – Subhrendu
Gangopadhyay
• Recharge Screening Analysis Task Team – Adam
Ricks
• Economics Analysis Task Team – Steve Piper
Supply Analysis
• Christine Nunez
Water Supply
• Data Compilation
• Analysis Methodology
– Percent Recovery for Effluent
– Types of Supplies
– Future Supplies
• Demand Coorelation
Draft Report
• Supply Description
• Approach to Analysis
• Present, Future, & Climate Change Impacted
Availability
• Data, Model, & Methods Used
Basin Study
Supply and Demand Update
August 20, 2015
West Valley Cities
Build-Out Water Demands, Current Water Resources,
Unmet Water Demands
WATER PROVIDERS
Current Water
Resources Portfolio
267,129 AF
Avondale
Buckeye
El Mirage
Glendale
Goodyear
Peoria
Surprise
EPCOR
Unmet Water
Demands
553,252 AF
Build-Out Population - 4,099,290
Total Build-Out Demand – 820,381 AF
21
Water Demand and Supply
• Differences
– Previous snap shot had
• Select cities
• Build out population
– New Demand and Supply Study has
• All population in study area
• Stops at 2060
22
Water Demand
• Population Projections
– MAG data
• TAZ data
– Captures entire study area
– Captures all population
» Ignores municipal water service areas
– Adjusted down by water provider input
23
24
Water Demand
Population Projections * **
Year
MAG Population
Adjusted Population
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2,380,733
2,829,415
3,444,023
4,126,640
5,035,478
6,144,476
2,807,974
3,339,171
3,978,891
4,774,387
5,729,525
2,380,733
*Through 2040, extrapolated thereafter. The contents of this report reflect the views of the
Licensee who is responsible for the facts and accuracy of the data presented herein. The
contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of MAG and have not been
approved or endorsed by MAG.
** This population projection reflects the WSRV, Hassayampa, Lake Pleasant, and Rainbow
Valley subbasins. It includes all of the City of Phoenix and excludes Tempe and Paradise
Valley.
25
Water Demand
• Projections
– Use of a weighted GPCD – 187.82
• 5 year average
• For existing demand
– Use of 132 GPCD for new population
• 99 new residential
• 21 new commercial
• 12 lost water (10%)
26
Water Demand
Municipal Water Demand in Acre Feet Per Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
High Population Growth
500,859
567,200
658,076
759,007
893,387 1,057,362
Adjusted (Normal) Population
Growth
500,859
564,030
642,572
737,161
854,782
996,008
Normal Population Growth with
Conservation
500,859
512,365
542,287
590,398
662,659
758,645
27
Groundwater Modeling
• Mitch Haws
Implications
for Overlap Areas
• Northern Overlap
– LHSB Recharge
and higher water
levels
– WSRV Pumping
• Southern Overlap
– Underflow from
LHSB
– Waterlogged area
Climate Change Modeling
• Mitch Haws/Subhrendu Gangopadhyay
Climate Change Analysis Decisions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Historical period ,1950-1999
Future planning time horizon(s) – 1 (30-yr period centered around 2050, [20352064] -> index sequential to 100-years for GW model runs)
Number of climate change scenarios - 3 (later slide), HD (hot-dry), CT (centraltendency), WW (warm-wet)
CMIP-5 Climate Projections per scenario – 10 (used in other Studies)
Variables
– Precipitation
– Temperature
– Recharge
– Streamflow
Temporal resolution – monthly to annual
Spatial domain and resolution (BCSD climate projection resolution, 1/8th-degree ~
12 km)
Historical water supply and water demand - to be conducted by Study Partners
Climate Change Scenarios
Note that the
values
adjacent to
each climate
change
scenario, filled
red circles,
represent the
respective
percentiles of
precipitation
and
temperature
changes
calculated
from the
projection
ensemble.
Recharge Screening Analysis
• Adam Ricks
West Salt River Valley Basin Study
Recharge Screening Analysis
• What are the impacts of reduced managed water supplies?
– Triggered by thresholds established for Colorado River Basin
• What are the affects due to increased groundwater pumping?
– Resulting from decreased water supplies?
– Resulting from increased demand due to population growth?
• What are the probabilities of exceeding the thresholds from GW
Management Act (Assured Water Supply) across the Basin?
• - Cannot pump below 1,000 foot level?
Questions for Recharge Screening Analysis
• Is recharge feasible in a future with reduced supplies?
-recharge effluent and treat on recovery
• Where can recovery of stored groundwater be withdrawn?
– How much water needs to be “banked” to meet changes of
increased demand with decreased supplies?
– Informed by Water Supply/Demand Analysis
• Will this volume of water be achievable?
-Informed by the Groundwater Modeling
Questions for Recharge Screening Analysis
• Is recharge feasible in a future with reduced supplies?
-recharge effluent and treat on recovery
• Direct delivery will require ability to handle treated volume
Recharge and recovery will be heavily influenced by costs to move
water to where it is needed.
Screening analysis needs to optimize existing infrastructure (canals,
and pipelines, treatment)
Questions for Recharge Screening Analysis
• Water Supply and Demand Analysis will help inform Groundwater
Modeling
• Groundwater Modeling will be informed by climate change analysis
• All of the above will help to inform the screening for more suitable
areas for recharge
• Where to site facility that optimizes existing infrastructure
• Where to site facility that can meet supply and demand constraints
• Where to site facility that is screened for water quality impacts
• Where to site facility that is screened for available lands
• Where to recharge
that optimizes
existing infrastructure
• Where to recharge
that can meet supply
and demand
constraints
• Where to recharge
that is screened for
water quality impacts
• Where to recharge
that is screened for
available lands
Next Steps for
Recharge Screening Analysis
• Once WestCAPS understands the results from the
Groundwater Modeling, Supply and Demand and
Climate Change analyses will be able to provide
the technical support to integrate the newly
derived info into the recharge siting analysis.
Economic Analysis
• Mitch Haws
– Contacted Reclamation’s Denver office economist
– Provided Scope of Work
– Denver has provided comments to the Scope of
Work with an estimate to accomplish the task
– Have draft of the Advanced Funding Agreement
(AFA)
– Because of the end of the Federal Fiscal Year the
AFA will be signed after October 1
Economic Analysis
• Economics of a regional treatment and
transmission lines
• Impacts of water supply on residential and
commercial development and housing
affordability
• Population projections and impacts of unmet
water demands
• OM&R for new regional infrastructure
Communication Plan
• Stakeholder Advisory Group
– ID Stakeholders
– ID Technical Committees
Technical
Committees
& Public Input
• Technical Committees
• Public Input
• WESTCAPS Meetings
• E-updates via Email
• Website: www.WESTCAPS.org
Basin Study
Advisory Group
WESTCAPS
Management
Committee
48
Next Steps
• Draft/Finalize Supply Study
• Draft/Finalize Demand Study
• Develop Ground Water Model
• Develop and Run Climate Models
• Complete Recharge Site Suitability
Study
• Initiate Economic Analysis
49
Questions
Mitch Haws
Study Manager
Bureau of Reclamation
623-773-6274
[email protected]