Transcript China - CEEN 525

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Average annual growth
rate 2000-10: 10%
From 1990 to 2009,
moved from net
exporter of oil to world’s
second largest net
importer
World’s largest producer
and consumer of coal –
46% world’s coal
consumption
COAL
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US 2010 – 1.0 billion short
tons (flat or declining)
China 2010 – 3.7 billion
short tons (rising)
OIL
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US 2010 – 19.1 million bpd
China 2010 – 9.4 million
bpd
CHINA
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Hydro –
US
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 22% capacity
Hydro
 6.8% capacity
 7.7% energy
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Other renewables
 6.2% capcity
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Other renewables
 5.6% capacity
 4.7% energy
2008 emissions
R
a
Country
n
k
World
1 China[9]
2 United States
- European Union (27)
3 India
4 Russia
5 Japan
6 Germany
7 Canada
Annual CO2
emissions[7][8]
(in thousands of
metric tonnes)
29,888,121
7,031,916
5,461,014
4,177,817 [10]
1,742,698
1,708,653
1,208,163
786,660
544,091
Percentage of
global total
100%
23.33%
18.11%
14.04%
5.78%
5.67%
4.01%
2.61%
1.80%
Per capita:
China: 4.6 tonnes/capita
US: 19.1 tonnes/capita
Projections are that by 2030 China will account for ½ global
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Authoritarian –concentrates authority in few
executive agencies manned by capable and
uncorrupt elites seeking to improve
environmental outcomes
Democratic--spreads authority over several
levels and agencies of government, including
representative legislatures, and that
encourages direct public participation from a
wide cross-section of society
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“Citizen participation is limited to learning
and obeying state policies.” p. 291
“A Renewable Energy Law was completed in
2004 after fewer than nine months of
drafting and then passed into law with no
amendments by an unelected national
legislature in 2005” p. 290
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National Development and Reform Commission
(NDRC) -primary policymaking and regulatory
authority in the energy sector,
National Energy Administration (NEA) (formed
2008) key energy regulator for the country
 approves new energy projects
 sets domestic wholesale energy prices
 implements central government's energy policies,
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National Energy Commission (formed 2010) –
coordinate energy policy among the various
agencies under the State Council
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China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) leading upstream player in China
 publicly-listed arm PetroChina,
 together account for roughly 60 % domestic oil and
80% natural gas output
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China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation
(Sinopec)
 downstream activities (refining and distribution)
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China National Offshore Oil Corporation
(CNOOC): offshore oil exploration and
production
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Reduce emission intensity of GDP 40-45% by
2020 (over 2005 levels)
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At Durban , China agreed to negotiate a
legally binding treaty (including the
possibility of an absolute emission cap) by
2020
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Can produce a rapid response to problem
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But if fragmentation remains, can undermine
implementation due to illegitimacy
 Federalism issues
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Low social concern makes authoritarianism
more necessary and more difficult
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US energy system
Institutions
Policy
http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/pecss_diagram.cfm
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Federalism: gives extensive powers to 50
states
Separation of powers
 Congress
▪ 2 equal chambers
▪ House – 435 seat elected every 2 years
▪ Senate – 2 seats per state elected every 6 years
 President – elected separately every 4 years
 Courts
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House: 50% +1
Senate: effective majority is 60%
Treaties: 2/3rd of Senate requires
President needs to sign laws passed by
Congress
If president vetos, 2/3rd of both houses can
overturn
Congress and president same party: working
majority is 60%
Congress and president different party:
working majority is 67%
Note contrast to Canada, China
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2009-10 House and Senate Democratic
2011-2014 House Republican, Senate
Democratic
Current Senate: 55 D – 45 R
Current House: 201 D – 231 R
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1973 oil shock prompted
 Creation of Department of Energy 1977
 Strategic Petroleum Reserve
 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards
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Every president developed a plan but little
coherence
2009 State of Union: To truly transform our
economy, protect our security, and save our
planet from the ravages of climate change,
ne need to ultimately make clean,
renewable energy the profitable kind of
energy
2001 – US cars and
trucks averaged 24.7
m.p.g.
 2011 --29.6 m.p.g.
 New regs: up to 55
m.p.g. by 2025
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Sustainable Energy Policy
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Nov 2011, Canada
announced it would
attempt to meet US
2025 targets
30
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Try Congress first – cap and trade
Use administration action if that fails
 Core focus on auto standards
 Emerging focus on coal
▪ Strong standards on new plants
▪ Uncertain about timing and strength of existing plant
standards
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2009 – House passes Waxman-Markey
 17% reduction by 2020
 Riddled with concession
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2010 Senate
 Coalition building required giving everything away
 Coalition of senators fell apart when initiative got
framed as “gas tax”
 “on climate change, Obama grew timid and gave up,
leaving the dysfunctional Senate to figure out the
issue on its own”
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Personal impact
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As of April 2011, 32 states have RPS or
Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards;
another six have voluntary standards (Pew
Centre on Global Climate Change, 2011)
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California most aggressive – 33% by 2020
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California leadership
 1990 levels by 2020 (30% reduction)
 80% below 1990 levels by 2050
 Cap and trade program now in place
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Global leaders in power, energy, emissions
2/5 of global GHG emission
Chinese growth core driving force
 emission intensity: factor of 4 difference
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Starkly different political systems
If they cooperated, enormous change
possible
Prospects for meaningful cooperation?