Transcript Climate Change and Water

MODULE 3
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS AND FOOD
PRODUCTION
Module objectives and structure
Objectives
This module summarises information on observed and potential climate change impacts on
agro-ecosystems and food production according to the latest knowledge available.
Structure
This module starts with observed or potential impacts on natural resources on which agriculture
depends, followed by those on major agricultural activities, food safety and food security. A
slide on general concepts is included for each topic, followed by a example and occasionally a
slide on reflections. Illustrations are linked to files with a larger view, expanding on the topics
covered or providing access to full text documents.
Caveat
We give examples of specific areas or research, which cannot be generalised and are only
valid for the areas covered and according to what is presently known. As in all branches of
knowledge these can change as observations and models improve. In many cases research is
not sufficient to establish patterns, therefore projections need to be taken with precaution and
always in the context of local conditions and specific systems. Examples provided are not
meant to be exhaustive and cover all areas of agriculture, which would be beyond the scope of
this information package.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts of climate change
•
The food chain will be highly vulnerable to climate change
•
There is still uncertainty about the impacts of climate change on specific systems
•
Food security, as well as social and economic stability, may be ultimately affected
The food chain will be vulnerable to temperature rise, changes in
rain and snow fall, the incidence of weather events, sea level rise
and higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Impacts will depend
on specific regions or systems and their capacity to reduce them. In
some cases impacts may be positive, although current knowledge
points out that in many places negative impacts will outweigh
positive ones. There is still uncertainty on the potential impacts of
climate change on specific agro-ecosystems.
Climate change will depress
agricultural yields in most
countries by 2050 given current
agricultural practices and crops.
Source: World Development
Report 2010, The World Bank.
The availability and quality of natural resources, the conditions to
allow for the production, storage and distribution of food, will be
fundamental for food security under climate change threats.
If appropriate actions are not taken at different levels, food security
will be affected by climate variability and change at the expense of
social and economic stability of all nations.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on water
•
There is limited literature on impacts of climate change on water for agriculture in
specific regions
•
In general climate change is expected to affect availability and demand of water
for agriculture
The impacts of climate change on water resources may be:
Impacts of temperature increase
on water resources.
Source: IPCC AR4 SYR-3.
•
Reduced availability of water in regions affected by decrease in
annual or seasonal precipitation.
•
Higher incidence of weather events leading to floods or droughts.
•
Reduced storage of water in the form of snow and earlier melting
of winter snow, leading to shifts in peak runoff from the seasons
where demand is highest.
•
Inundation and damage in low-lying coastal areas affected by sea
level rise and storm surges, as well as increased saline intrusion
into freshwater aquifers.
•
Increased crop water demand due to higher temperatures.
For impacts of climate change on water resources in general see
the IPCC’s technical report Climate Change and Water.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on water
Examples
Impacts on water for agriculture
in Australia
According to the Australian
Department of Climate Change and
Energy Efficiency, climate change is
likely to affect rivers and dams that
supply most of the water used in
Australian agriculture. Potential
evaporation is likely to increase and
this, combined with expected
reductions in rainfall, suggests that
up to 20% more droughts could
occur across Australia by 2030.
Junction of the Murray and Darling rivers at Wentworth, in the lower
Murray-Darling Catchment.
An example is that of the Murray
Darling Basin, where by 2030 the
average decline in flows is projected
to be 11% (9% in the north and 13%
in the south).
Photo: Murray Darling Environmental Foundation.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on water
Examples
Prospective changes in irrigation water
requirements in the eastern arc mountains of
Kenya
A study by Eiji Maeda et al. (2011) in the Taita
Hills, Kenya, indicated that in the next 20 years
the low availability of arable lands in the hills will
drive agricultural expansion to areas with higher
irrigation water requirements (IWR) in the
foothills. This expansion will increase the annual
water volume necessary for irrigation by
approximately 40%.
View from Ngangao hilltop towards Mbololo, Kenya and
results from Eji Maeda et al. The landscapes of the Taita
Hills are featured by forests, intensive agricultural lands
and rock outcrops.
Photo: Taita Research Station, University of Helsinki.
Climate change may slightly decrease IWR in
April and November by 2030, while in May a
small increase will likely be observed. The
integrated assessment of these changes allow
for the identification of priority regions for land
use allocation policies and water resources
management.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on soils
•
A healthy soil is key to agricultural production
•
Climate change may have different types of impacts on soils, arising from
changes in precipitation, runoff and temperature, including physical, chemical
and biological
Climate change is expected to affect soils by:
Soils after a prolonged drought
(top) and inundated after intense
rains (above).
Photos: FAO and Department of
Agriculture and Food, Australia.
•
Decreasing soil moisture (from less precipitation and runoff and
changes in evapotranspiration);
•
Increasing soil erosion (from strong winds, storms and
landslides caused by weather events);
•
Increasing soil salinization in coastal areas (from sea level rise);
•
Increasing inundation and waterlogging (from excessive
precipitation or floods caused by weather events);
•
Changing soil carbon storage and the capacity of soils to
retain/release nutrients (from temperature and precipitation
changes);
•
Affecting soil biota and the processes that contribute to crop
growth (from temperature and precipitation changes).
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on soils
Examples
Gully erosion in an
unprotected cornfield
following a storm in
Tennessee, USA.
Impacts of sea level rise and
increases in frequency of
weather events on soils
Photo: Tim McCabe, NRCS.
Rosenzweig et al. calculated that
losses due to excessive soil
moisture, caused by heavier
precipitation in the USA, would
double by 2030 to US$3 billion/
year.
Soil salinization in coastal
areas, Sri Lanka.
Photo: Project
Nelumwewa, Puttalam, UNDPDRM.
According to UNDP, the
productivity of most paddy fields
in Sri Lanka declines every year
due to salinization. This
condition is predicted to increase
with climate change.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on soils
Examples
Impacts of climate change on soil carbon
stocks in four ecoregions
The study Climate change and its impact on
soil and vegetation carbon storage in Kenya,
Jordan, India and Brazil modelled the effects
of climate change on soil carbon storage in
four ecoregions.
The study projected that between 2000 and
2100 soil carbon stocks would decrease in
Amazonian Brazil; increase in Kenya; and
change slightly in Jordan and some parts of
India and the Indo Gangetic plains.
Soil carbon stocks change (kg C m-2) 2000–2100 in four
ecoregions (note the variation in scale).
Source: Climate change and its impact on soil and
vegetation carbon storage in Kenya, Jordan, India and Brazil.
Regional changes in soil carbon stocks were
associated with changes in precipitation,
rather than temperature, with wetter areas
having an increase and drier areas a
decrease of carbon stocks in soils.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on biological diversity
•
The variety of life is important in agriculture
•
Climate change will have a variety of impacts on biological diversity, which
altogether will affect how ecosystems and agriculture function
The variety of life (biological diversity, or biodiversity) is also
important for agriculture. Soil organisms, plants and insects play a
role in agriculture. More…
Directly or indirectly, climate change can produce a variety of
effects on biological diversity, including fluctuations in distribution of
species, range of habitat, timing of life stages and disruption in
ecosystems.
The diversity of soil organisms and
their functions.
Source: Soil biodiversity and
agriculture.
For agriculture this may imply, for example, changes in organisms
involved in nutrient cycling; loss of crop landraces; crops maturing
earlier, not surviving under new conditions or being able to grow in
new areas; change in agroclimatic conditions which will modify land
suitability for specific crops; shift of species in animal husbandry;
movement of pests and changes in distribution of plant and animal
diseases; and movement or decline of pollinators.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on biological diversity
Examples
Potential effects on pollinators
One of the most important ecosystem
services for sustainable crop
production is the mutualistic interaction
between plants and animals, i.e.
pollination.
There are very few studies on impacts
of climate change on pollination, but
some ideas on how they can be
affected include:
A wasp on a fennel plant.
Photo: C. Licona Manzur.
•
Further population declines;
•
Pole-ward expansion;
•
Disruption of pollination through
spatial and temporal mismatch of
plant flowering and pollinator
activity.
Source: Potential effects of climate
change on crop pollination, FAO, 2011.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on natural resources
Reflections
The previous pages contained a summary of what is known about the expected impacts of
climate change on natural resources on which agriculture depends. At this stage we can say we
only know a part of the picture and we should also rely on observations from farmers, herders,
pastoralists and fisher folk.
Impacts will be complex and can affect natural resources and ecosystems in different ways in
different places.
It is important that communities understand the implications of this potential impacts.
In Module 2 you compiled a list of projections for your area.
What are the impacts expected in natural resources according to these projections?
Which are the most vulnerable areas? Why?
Are extension services in your area aware of these risks? If not, what initiatives could you take
in order to make them aware?
Have you got an estimation of losses due to climate stress in the last decades? If not, where
could you find it?
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on crop production
•
Impacts on crop production will vary with latitudes and ranges of temperature
increase
•
Extreme events may lower crop yields beyond mean climate change
•
Climate change might modify the quality of agricultural produce
Crop productivity is projected (with medium confidence) to:
•
Increase slightly at mid- to high latitudes for local mean
temperature increases of up to 1–3 °C, depending on the crop,
and then decrease beyond that in some regions.
•
Decrease for even small local temperature increases (1–2 °C) at
lower latitudes, especially in dry and tropical regions.
These are very coarse projections that need to be checked through
local studies, specially since the effect of CO2 on specific
combinations of conditions and crops is still in debate.
Examples of impacts due to
extreme events.
Source: IPCC AR4 SYR-3.
Altered frequency and intensity of weather events may lower crop
yields beyond the impacts of mean climate change (e.g. damaging
crops at specific growth stages, or making field management more
difficult).
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on crop production
Examples
Potential impacts on cereal production in
China
According to Chinese scientists, between 1951
and 2005 climate change advanced winter wheat
maturation by 5.9 days in the north and by 10.1
days in the south.
If comparing the situation between 1950–1980
and 1981–2007, the northern limits of double
cropping systems have moved in Shaanxi,
Shanxi, Hebei, and Liaoning.
The spatial displacement of northern limits of winter
wheat in China (1950–2007).
Source: The possible effect of climate warming on
northern limits of cropping system and crop yield in
China, Yang et al., 2011.
In addition, they project that by 2030, China's
overall production capacity might be reduced by
5–10% due to climate warming, with wheat, rice
and corn production declining.
Positive impacts include the extension of the
northern boundary for winter wheat and the
expansion of late-maturing varieties of corn.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on crop production
Examples
Indian mustard (Brassica juncea).
Photo: FAO/Jon Spaull.
Potential impacts on
an industrial oil crop in
India
Future climate change
scenario analysis
(Boomiraj et al., 2010)
showed that Indian
mustard yields are likely
to fall in both irrigated
and rainfed conditions in
India.
Change in yields: 3 scenarios for different dates and regions.
Source: Assessing the vulnerability of Indian mustard to
climate change, Boomiraj et al., 2010.
By 2050 and 2080
(scnerario A1), yield
reduction would be the
highest in eastern India,
followed by central India
and then northern India
(see figure) .
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on crop production
Examples
Potential impacts on apple and pear in Elgin–
Villiersdorp–Vyeboom region, South Africa
A study analysed the relationship between the
mean full bloom dates of 3 apple and 1 pear
cultivars with temperature and rainfall trends over
the period 1973–2009.
Location of the study, and trends for change in full
bloom dates for Golden Delicious and Granny Smith.
Source: Advance of apple and pear tree full bloom
dates in response to climate change in the southwestern Cape, South Africa, Grab et al., 2011.
They found that full bloom dates were advanced
on average by +1.6 days (d) per decade,
associated with a mean early spring temperature
increase of +0.45 °C/decade or an average of
+3.6 d advance per °C rise in mean early spring
temperature. Golden Delicious apples were the
most sensitive (+4.2 d/°C) and Granny Smith
apples the least sensitive (+2.4 d/°C).This has
implications for fruit trees management in the
region, as an increase in temperature of 1.5–3 °C
is expected in the first half of this century.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on crop production
Examples
Impacts on irrigated horticulture in Vale of
Evesham, UK
A recent study assessed the impacts of climate
change on the depths of irrigation applied and on
volumetric water demand in the Vale of Evesham,
an area of intense outdoor horticultural production.
The study showed that with climate change ‘dry’
year water demand for the existing irrigated crops
in the Vale of Evesham would increase by 13–20%
by the 2020s, 25–50% by the 2050s and 38–84%
by the 2080s. Most impacted will be potatoes,
field-scale vegetables, and small fruit production.
The study did not include the expansion of
cropped areas or the effects of higher CO2
concentrations in the atmosphere.
Red chard cultivated in the Vale of Evesham, UK.
Photo: Valefresco.
Source: Climate change impacts on water for
horticulture.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on crop production
Examples
Impacts on crop pests and diseases
There is evidence that climate change is altering the
distribution, incidence and intensity of animal and plant
pests and diseases as well as invasive and alien species.
The recent emergence in several regions of multi•
-virulent,
aggressive strains of wheat yellow rust adapted to high
temperatures is a good indication of the risks associated
with pathogen adaptation to climate change.
These new aggressive strains have spread at
unprecedented speed on five continents resulting in
epidemics in new cropping areas, previously not
favourable for yellow rust and where well•adapted,
resistant varieties are not yet available. The wheat disease
Spot Blotch is another example, causing heavy losses in
southern Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, and eastern India, due
to a lack of resistance to the disease (FAO).
Wheat stripe rust, also known as yellow rust.
Photo: USDA Agricultural Research Service.
Further reading on this subject can be found here.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on crop quality
•
To date there are few studies on the impacts of climate change on crop quality,
but according to those few available, high temperatures, drought and salinity
have impacts on crop quality
A literature review of the on the impact of abiotic
environmental stress (including climate-related) on
crops was carried out by Wang and Frei (2011). It
considered only studies reporting data on the quality of
harvested food products, covering about 50 crops
(including cereals, vegetables, fruits and herbs). The
analysis showed that, in general, both positive and
negative effects may occur, depending on the stress:
Conceptual model of responses of crops
stimulated by five types of environmental
stress.
•
Starch concentration, the feed value, lipids and
physical/sensory traits tend to decrease.
•
Protein and antioxidant concentration tend to
increase.
•
No clear trend can be detected in sugar and mineral
concentration.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on crop quality
Examples
Impacts on grape quality for
wine making
Between 1976 and 2000, climate change advanced by about two
weeks the harvesting dates of grapes in Syrah vineyards in Côtes du
Rhône and Grenache vineyards in Côtes de Provence.
Source: Bellia et al. in Global warming, which potential impacts on the
vineyards?
The most important effects of
climate change on grape
production are advanced
harvesting times and increased
grape sugar concentration,
which leads to higher wine
alcohol levels, lower acidities
and a modification of varietal
aroma compounds (Mira de
Orduña, 2010).
See also the leaflet Impacts of
climate change on wine in
France.
Photo: FAO/I. De Borhegyi.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on livestock production
•
There are few studies on the impacts of climate change on livestock
•
Scientists expect that climate change will have impacts on animal health, growth,
meat, milk and egg yields and quality
Climate change may have impacts on livestock production including
animal health, growth, meat, milk and eggs yield and quality.
Impacts may occur due to changes in different aspects:
Examples of animal production
systems.
Photos: FAO/T. Hug, A. Youssouf,
A.Conti, O. Thuillier.
•
Quantity and quality of feeds and feeding patterns
•
Thermal stress, water demand and availability
•
Livestock diseases and disease vectors
•
Genetic resources, livestock genetics and breeding
•
Types of livestock systems
•
Other
Impacts will depend on the vulnerability of production systems: type
of livestock, local conditions and the capacity for farmers to adapt
their production and take measures to reduce impacts. More…
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on livestock production
Examples
Impacts on small scale
livestock systems
Herders supply milk and meat
for themselves and a large
number of people. They will be
among those most hurt by
climate change.
Many herders, having lost all
their animals to droughts, are
facing the end of their way of
life.
Video, Heat, rain and livestock: Impacts of climate change on Africa’s
livestock herders (click on the image).
Source: International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI).
Examples of impacts are
included in ILRI’s video Heat,
rain and livestock: Impacts of
climate change on Africa's
livestock herders.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on livestock production
Examples
An example of impacts of
climate change on livestock
and products in central USA
Holstein cows in a milking parlour.
Scientists in the US developed
production and response models
for milk producing dairy cattle and
confined beef and swine. They
compared climatic conditions pre1986 with doubling and tripling
CO2 levels (year 2040 and 2080)
in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and
Kansas. Some of the projections
resulted in a reduction of around
2.2% (105.7 kg/cow) of milk
output in this region, which would
cost producers US$28 million
annually. More…
Photo: USDA photo center.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on fish production
•
The productivity of marine and fresh water ecosystems is expected to decline in
low latitudes and increase in high latitudes
•
Climate change is already affecting food webs
Climate variability and change can affect the productivity or
distribution of fisheries (marine and inland) in a variety of ways:
Potential climate impact pathways
on fisheries.
Sources: (click on image).
•
changes in water temperature and precipitation affect the
dynamics of ocean currents, the flow of rivers and the area
covered by wetlands. This will have effects on ecosystem
structure and function and on the distribution and production of
fish stocks;
•
increased incidence of extreme events will affect fishing
operations and increase damage and disruption to coastal and
riparian homes, services and infrastructure;
•
sea level rise, melting of glaciers at the headwaters of major
rivers and other large-scale environmental changes will have
effects on coastal and wetland environments and livelihoods.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on fish production
Examples
Temperature will have impacts on spatial distribution of
fish
Wild capture fisheries are fundamentally different from other
food production systems in their linkages and responses to
climate change. For example, most fishing depends on wild
populations whose variability depends on environmental
processes governing the supply of young stock, and feeding
and predation conditions through the life cycle. Open water
populations cannot be enhanced by simply adding fertilizers
as in agriculture, nor can effects of environmental change be
quickly observed.
Fishing for mackerel off the coast of
Peru.
Photo: FAO/T. Dioses.
Unlike most terrestrial animals, all aquatic animal species for
human consumption are poikilothermic, meaning their body
temperatures vary with the ambient temperature. Climate
change-induced temperature variations will therefore have a
much stronger impact on the spatial distribution of fishing and
aquaculture activities and on their productivity and yields.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on fish production
Examples
Global analysis of the
vulnerability of fisheries
Vulnerability of national economies to potential climate change impacts on
fisheries (which integrates exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity)
under IPCC scenario B2 (local development, lower emissions).
Source: Allison et al., 2009. Vulnerability of national economies to the
impacts of climate change on fisheries.
Allison et al. (2009) compared the
vulnerability of 132 countries to
potential climate change impacts
on their capture fisheries using an
indicator-based approach
(integrating exposure, sensitivity
and adaptive capacity).
Countries in Central and Western
Africa (e.g. Malawi, Guinea,
Senegal, Uganda),
Peru and Colombia in northwestern South America and four
tropical Asian countries
(Bangladesh, Cambodia,
Pakistan and Yemen) were
identified as the most vulnerable.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on the whole agriculture sector
Reflections
The Australian Bureau on Agriculture
and Resource Economics and Sciences
(ABARES) modelled potential impacts of
climate change on agriculture in different
countries. Their models assumed no
adaptation and mitigation actions (and
did not include climate variability).
Impacts varied across economies.
This is an example of modelling for
impacts on the whole sector. According
to your UNFCCC National
Communications:
Percentage change in total agricultural production,
by economy relative to the reference case (no planned adaptation
or mitigation).
Source: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Insights from
ABARES research, OECD-INEA-FAO Workshop on Agriculture and
adaptation to Climate Change.
Which are the expected impacts at
national level?
What are the predictions for your region?
Which are the most vulnerable sectors?
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on postharvest operations
•
Climate variability and change will also have impacts on post-harvest operations
and will force the sector to modify practices and better assess risks to avoid
further post-harvest losses
The quality and safety of agricultural produce (both land and water
produce) depend as much on sound agricultural practices as on
correct handling, storage and transportation. Climate change and
variability are likely to have impacts on these operations. Currently
post-harvest operations are responsible for the loss of up to 20% of
agricultural produce. Climate change is likely to increase these losses
if measures are not taken.
Scene from a sardine canning
factory in Agadir, Morocco.
Proper handling can reduce
significant losses.
Photo: FAO/Giuseppe Bizzarri.
Postharvest technology comprises different methods of harvesting,
cleaning, packaging, rapid cooling, storing under refrigeration or
modified (MA) and controlled (CA) atmospheres, and transportation
under controlled conditions, among other important technologies
(Madrid, 2011; FAO).
Higher temperatures and disruption of infrastructure due to climate
variability will create the need for ways to increase the efficiency of
these operations. (More…)
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on postharvest operations
Examples
Potential impacts on the cold chain
Refrigeration stops or reduces the rate
of changes in food.
A rise in average ambient temperatures
could impose higher heat loads on the
cold-chain: refrigeration plants would
need to run for longer and use more
energy; food will take longer to cool; it
will be difficult to maintain cold
temperatures.
If the food industries’ responses to a 2–
4 °C rise in ambient temperatures were
to allow a similar rise in the temperature
of chilled food, then food poisoning and
spoilage would increase.
Women transporting fish in cold boxes, Burkina Faso.
Photo: FAO/A. Proto.
Source: The food cold-chain and climate
change.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on food safety
•
Climate change and variability may have an impact on the occurrence of food
safety hazards at various stages of the food chain
Climate change and variability may have an impact on the
occurrence of food safety hazards at various stages of the food
chain, from primary production through to consumption. Some
potential impacts include:
•
Increasing microbial food contamination and associated foodborne diseases;
•
Increasing animal diseases and vectors of transfer of animal
pathogens from animals to humans;
•
Modifying the patterns of fungi and mycotoxin contamination;
•
Increasing harmful algal blooms in coastal areas;
•
Increasing environmental contaminants and chemical residues
in the food change;
•
Increasing illnesses due to food contamination in emergencies.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on food safety
Examples
Mycotoxins in maize in Europe
Maize can support different mycotoxinproducing moulds, such as F. graminearum, F.
verticillioides, and A. flavus.
Aspergillus flavus
in maize.
Photo: CIMMYT.
Taken from Maize
diseases: a guide
for field
identification .
In 2003, prolonged hot and dry weather in
Europe caused an outbreak of A. flavus, with
consequent problems of aflatoxin
contamination (aflatoxins are extremely toxic,
mutagenic, and carcinogenic compounds) in
forage and silage, an uncommon occurrence
in Europe.
Aflatoxins, produced by few species belonging
to Aspergillus are expected to become more
prevalent with the foreseen climate change.
Source: Climate change and food safety: An
emerging issue with special focus on Europe.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Impacts on food security
Reflections
Climate change will affect all four dimensions of food security: food availability, food accessibility,
food utilization and food systems stability. It will have an impact on human health, livelihood assets,
food production and distribution channels, as well as changing purchasing power and market flows.
From the information provided in modules 1–3:
•
Which are the most pressing concerns regarding agriculture and environment in your area?
•
Which are the most vulnerable systems?
•
Looking at a food chain approach, which activities are more vulnerable to climate change?
Production activities, storage of agricultural products, processing of agricultural products?
Food distribution? Food safety?
•
Are there any particular concerns regarding water availability in your area? How does it
impact on distribution among different sectors?
•
Are there any studies on the specific impacts of climate change, on different components of
the food chain? If not, which institutions could you approach to investigate potential impacts?
•
Is there a multidisciplinary team available to study impacts in agriculture and related sectors?
•
Have you thought about initiating campaigns with simple information on what is happening
and could be happening to agriculture and natural resources in your area?
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Resources
References used in this module and further reading
This list contains the references used in this module. You can access the full text of some of
these references through this information package or through their respective websites, by
clicking on references, hyperlinks or images. In the case of material for which we cannot
include the full text due to special copyrights, we provide a link to its abstract in the Internet.
Institutions dealing with the issues covered in the module
In this list you will find resources to identify national and international institutions that might hold
information on the topics covered through out this information package.
Glossary, abbreviations and acronyms
In this glossary you can find the most common terms as used in the context of climate change.
In addition the FAOTERM portal contains agricultural terms in different languages. Acronyms of
institutions and abbreviations used throughout the package are included here.
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Please select one of the following to continue:
Part I - Agriculture, food security and ecosystems: current and future challenges
Module 1. An introduction to current and future challenges
Module 2. Climate variability and climate change
Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production
Module 4. Agriculture, environment and health
Part II - Addressing challenges
Module 5. C-RESAP/climate-smart agriculture: technical considerations and
examples of production systems
Module 6. C-RESAP/climate-smart agriculture: supporting tools and policies
About the information package
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How to cite the information package
C. Licona Manzur and Rhodri P. Thomas (2011). Climate resilient and environmentally sound agriculture
or “climate-smart” agriculture: An information package for government authorities. Institute of Agricultural
Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations.