Transcript Lecture 1 - Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research

EP06: Energy and Climate Change
Dr Jean-Francois Mercure,
[email protected]
Lectures 1, 4-8
Pablo Salas,
[email protected]
Lectures 2-3
Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research
21 Silver Street
www.4cmr.group.cam.ac.uk
EP06: Structure of the course
Lecture 1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- International framing,
- Climate science
- Energy use, by sector, region, resource/product
Lecture 2-3: Global energy resources and technologies
- History of energy consumption
- Energy technologies: non-renewables
- Energy technologies: renewables
- Quantitative approach to energy resources: non-renewables
- Quantitative approach to energy resources: renewables
Lecture 4: Energy economics
- Understanding GDP versus energy consumption
- Resource intensity, carbon intensity, emissions
- Energy demand and economic development
- Energy access and energy poverty
Lectures 5-6: Innovation and technological change
- Historical trends of technology diffusion
- Learning-by-doing and increasing returns
- Innovation-diffusion theory
- Overview of evolutionary economics
- Technological change and economic growth
- Modelling technological change
EP06: Structure of the course
Lectures 7-8: Energy and climate policy
- Energy policy instruments
- Innovation policy and R&D support, innovation systems
- Practical exercise: scenarios of future climate policy
- Economic growth, development versus climate policy, the various views
- Co-benefits: health, synergies across sectors
Practical exercise:
Practical team work to submit at the last lecture March 8!
30% of the final mark
Policy analysis using a computational tool, teams of 4-5
Tutorials with explanations on Fridays at 12-2pm on Jan 30, Feb 13, 20 and 27
Final Test:
70% of the final mark
Written exam on everything in these lectures + the practical exercise
Recommendations for the course:
Be present at every lecture or you may fail
Download/read/print notes before the lecture
Read texts given at lectures, subject of exam
Do not free-ride on the practical exercise, this could impact your exam
Lecture 1 - Introduction to energy and climate change
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- What are GHG emissions?
- Which gases?
- How much? International Energy Agency
- Where from? – Sectors – IPCC WGIII
- Where from? – Countries – IPCC WGIII
- Where is it leading us? – Representative Concentration Pathways – IPCC
- Climate Science
- From Fuels to GHG emissions – fuel combustion
- From GHG emissions to concentrations – carbon cycle
- From concentrations to global warming – greenhouse effect
- From radiative forcing to global warming – greenhouse effect
- Impacts of climate change
Lecture 1 - Introduction to energy and climate change
Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Energy
- Primary energy use globally
- Fossil fuels – Oil, gas, coal
- Nuclear
- Renewables
- Who uses what? Sectors
- Who uses what? Countries
- Projections of future energy use – where does it lead us?
- Back to GHG emissions – future projections
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- What are GHG emissions?
- Which gases?
- CO2: carbon dioxide
- CH4: methane
- N2O
- F-gases:
HFCs, PFCs, SF6
IPCC AR5 WGIII Technical Summary p11 (2014)
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- What are GHG emissions?
- Which gases? Gases with high global warming potentials
- CO2: carbon dioxide: fuel combustion – long-lived ( >> 100 years ) 57% (IPCC2007)
E.g. Petrol for transport: C8H18 + 8 O2 -> 9 H2O + 8 CO2 + Heat
Natural gas: CH4 + O2 -> 2H2O + CO2 + Heat
Coal: CnH2n+2 + (3n+1)/2 O2 → (n+1) H2O + n CO2 + Heat
- CO2: Agriculture, forestry and land use 17%
Deforestation, decay, peat and fires
- CH4: methane: oil + gas extraction, agriculture – short-lived (10 Years -> CO2) 14%
Oil + gas industry: drilling, leaks, flaring
Agriculture: cattle farming
Waste
- N2O: (130 years) 8%
Agriculture and fossil fuel combustion
- F-gases 1%
HFCs, PFCs, SF6
IPCC AR4 WGIII Ch1 p103 (2007)
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Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- What are GHG emissions?
- Which gases? Global warming potentials:
Home
CDM
JI
CC:iNet
TT:Clear
Your location: Home > GHG Data
Global Warming Potentials
NEW SROOM
Get New s on t he
Lat est Cl i m at e
Act i on
Global Warming Potential referenced to the updated decay response for the Bern carbon cycle model and future CO2 atmospheric
concentrations held constant at current levels.
Source: Climate Change 1995, The Science of Climate Change: Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary of the Working Group I
Report, page 22.
NEGOTIATIONS
Species
Meetings
Chemical formula
Lifetime (years)
Documents & Decisions
Bodies
|
|
20 years
100 years
500 years
CO2
CO2
variable §
1
1
1
Methane *
CH4
12±3
56
21
6.5
Nitrous oxide
N2O
Mitigation
HFC-23
Technology
FOCUS
Text Size + - | Text Colour
Global Warming Potential (Time Horizon)
| Print Overview
120 Glossary | FAQ | Contact |280
Español | Français 310
170
CHF3
264
9100
11700
9800
HFC-32
CH2F2
5.6
2100
650
200
HFC-41
CH3F
3.7
490
150
45
HFC-43-10mee
C5H2F10
17.1
3000
1300
400
Kyoto Protocol
Global
Warming Potentials
HFC-125
C2HF5
32.6
4600
2800
920
Cooperation & Support
HFC-134
C2H2F4
10.6
2900
1000
310
HFC-134a
CH2FCF3
14.6
3400
Adaptation
Global
Warming Potential referenced to the updated decay response for the Bern carbon cycle model and future CO2 atmospheric
National Reports
concentrations
held constant at current levels.
HFC-152a
C2H4F2
1.5
460
1300
420
140
42
300
94
3800
1400
2900
950
Share
Adaptation
Climate Finance
PROCESS
Home
CDM
JI
CC:iNet
TT:Clear
Your location: Home > GHG Data
Essential Background
NEW SROOM
Get New s on t he
Lat est Cl i m at e
Act i on
Science
GHG Data
Source:
Climate Change 1995, The Science
of Climate Change: Summary C2H3F3
for Policymakers and Technical
Summary of the Working
HFC-143
3.8
1000 Group I
GHG page
Data -22.
UNFCCC
Report,
NEGOTIATIONS
Meetings
Documents & Decisions
KP Data - UNFCCC
Species
GHG Data - Non-UNFCCC
C2H3F3
Lifetime (years)
C3HF7
Online Help
Bodies
Contact
CO2
Methods
FOCUS
Gender
and
Methane
* Climate Change
Parties & Observers
Nitrous oxide
Press
Overview
HFC-143a
Chemical formula
HFC-227ea
HFC-236fa
CO2
HFC-245ca
C3H2F6
variable §
CH4
12±3
Sulphur hexafluoride
N2O
Perfluoromethane 120
Adaptation
http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/items/3825.php
Secretariat
Perfluoroethane
C3H3F5
SF6
CF4
C2F6
48.3
5000
Global Warming Potential (Time Horizon)
36.5
4300
20 years
100 years
500 years
209
5100
1
56
280
6.6
3200
6300
4700
1
1
1800
560
170
21
6.5
16300
23900
34900
170
4400
6500
10000
6200
9200
14000
50000 310
10000
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- What are GHG emissions?
- How much? Emissions from fuel combustion, from the International Energy Agency
10%
22%
21%
5%
38%
Electricity sector dominated, followed by transport and industry
IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion 2014
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- What are GHG emissions?
- Where from? – Sectors – IPCC WGIII
IPCC AR5 WGIII Technical Summary p14 (2014)
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- What are GHG emissions?
- Where from? – Countries – IPCC WGIII
Europe + North America: ~ flat emissions
Developing economies: fast rising emissions
IPCC AR5 WGIII Technical Summary p13 (2014)
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- What are GHG emissions?
- Where is it leading us? – Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) – IPCC
IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Structure:
WGI – The physical sciences – Climatology
WGII – Impacts and Adaptation – Geography, agriculture, land use, social sciences
WGIII – Mitigation – Economics, energy, engineering, agriculture
8.5 – Business as usual (BAU)
6.0 – Highly unlikely to meet the 2 deg target
4.5 – 50% chance meeting the 2 deg target
2.6 – Highly likely to meet the 2 deg target
RCPs are common assumptions about future emissions in order to evaluate on a common basis
impacts of emissions and climate change.
Named according to their forcing in W/m2.
But what is the 2 deg target, what is the impact?
IPCC AR5 WGIII Technical Summary p13 (2014)
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Climate Science
- From Fuels to GHG emissions – fuel combustion
Chapter 2: Stationary Combustion
TABLE 2.4 (CONTINUED)
DEFAULT EMISSION FACTORS FOR STATIONARY COMBUSTION IN THE COMMERCIAL/INSTITUTIONAL CATEGORY
(kg of greenhouse gas per TJ on a Net Calorific Basis)
CO2
Fuel
Coal Tar
Derived Gases
Gas Works Gas
Default
Emission
Factor
Lower
n 80 700
n 44 400
Default
Emission
Factor
68 200
95 300
n 10
30
30
1.5
0.5
5
37 300
54 100
5
1.5
15
0.1
0.03
0.3
0.3
n
Lower
Upper
n 44 400
37 300
54 100
5
1.5
15
0.1
0.03
n 260 000
219 000
308 000
5
1.5
15
0.1
0.03
0.3
Oxygen Steel Furnace
Gas
n 182 000
145 000
202 000
5
1.5
15
0.1
0.03
0.3
56 100
54 300
58 300
5
1.5
15
0.1
0.03
0.3
91 700
73 300
121 000
300
100
900
4
1.5
15
n 143 000
110 000
183 000
300
100
900
4
1.5
15
n
73 300
72 200
74 400
300
100
900
4
1.5
15
1.4
0.5
5
4
1.5
15
2
1
21
4
1.5
15
3
n
Industrial Wastes
Waste Oils
106 000
100 000
108 000
n 10
Wood / Wood Waste
r 112 000
95 000
132 000
300
Sulphite lyes (Black
Liquor)a
n
95 300
80 700
110 000
Other Primary Solid
Biomass
n 100 000
84 700
117 000
Charcoal
n 112 000
95 000
Biogasoline
n 70 800
59 800
Biodiesels
n 70 800
Other Liquid Biofuels
Landfill Gas
Peat
Solid Biofuels
Upper
Blast Furnace Gas
Municipal Wastes (nonbiomass fraction)
Liquid
Biofuels
Lower
N2 O
Default
Emission
Factor
Coke Oven Gas
Natural Gas
3
30
n
100
900
1
18
300
100
900
132 000
200
70
600
1
0.3
84 300
10
3
30
0.6
0.2
2
59 800
84 300
10
3
30
0.6
0.2
2
n 79 600
67 100
95 300
10
3
30
0.6
0.2
2
n
54 600
46 200
66 000
5
1.5
15
0.1
0.03
0.3
Sludge Gas
n 54 600
46 200
66 000
5
1.5
15
0.1
0.03
0.3
Other Biogas
n
54 600
46 200
66 000
5
1.5
15
0.1
0.03
0.3
Municipal Wastes
(biomass fraction)
n 100 000
84 700
117 000
4
1..5
15
Other
nonf il
Gas
Biomass
CH4
Upper
n
3
300
100
900
n
(a) Includes the biomass-derived CO2 emitted from the black liquor combustion unit and the biomass-derived CO2 emitted from the kraft mill lime kiln.
n
indicates a new emission factor which was not present in the 1996 Guidelines
r
indicates an emission factor that has been revised since the 1996 Guidelines
IPCC Guidelines for national GHG inventories (2006)
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Climate Science
- From Fuels to GHG emissions – fuel combustion
- Fuels have a fairly well-defined carbon content
(e.g. petrol, kerosene, natural gas, anthracite, lignite etc)
- IPCC convention: Emissions are calculated from fuel use at the point of use
(e.g. coal use in plant, fuels sold at pump)
- Emissions reported, otherwise estimated
- Must avoid double-counting
- IPCC 2006 provides complete methodology
IPCC Guidelines for national GHG inventories (2006)
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Climate Science
- From GHG emissions to concentrations – carbon cycle
IPCC AR5 WGI Ch6 p471 (2013)
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Climate Science
- From GHG emissions to concentrations – carbon cycle
- CO2 Emissions (Gt/y) -> CO2 concentration (ppm)
Requires modelling the carbon cycle
Where does the CO2 go? Ocean? Biomass? etc
- Uncertainty is important!
IPCC AR4 WGIII TS p42 (2007)
Mercure et al Energy Policy 73 686-700 (2014)
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Climate Science
- From concentrations to radiative forcing and warming – greenhouse effect
- Earth’s energy balance: radiation influx, radiation outflux, absorption
- 3 types of models:
(1) simple energy balance, (2) intermediate complexity
(3) General circulation model (e.g. on supercomputers at Hadley centre)
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Climate Science
- From concentrations to global warming – greenhouse effect
IPCC AR4 WGIII ch3 p 199, TS p42 (2007)
Mercure et al Energy Policy 73 686-700 (2014)
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Climate Science
- From concentrations to global warming – greenhouse effect
- Perhaps the most important/insightful AR5
chart
- Very simple relationship between
cumulative emissions – warming
- Remember: cumulative emissions cannot
go backwards
- Enables to define carbon budgets
IPCC AR5 WGI TS p 104 (2014)
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Climate Science
- From radiative forcing to global warming – greenhouse effect
Back to RCPs: different levels of warming at stabilisation times, which are in the very long term
IPCC AR5 WGI TS p94 (2014)
IPCC AR5 WGI TS p89 (2014)
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Climate Science
- Impacts of climate change
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Climate Science
- Impacts of climate change
Contributions to sea level rise:
- Melting glaciers
- Thermal expansion
IPCC AR5 WGI TS p49 (2014)
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Climate Science
- Impacts of climate change
Areas at risk of flooding due to sea level rise
IPCC AR4 WGII Summary for Policymakers (2007)
Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Climate Science
- Impacts of climate change
What does warming mean for the planet? Here’s a nice summary from AR4
IPCC AR4 WGII TS p37 (2007)
Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Energy
- Primary energy use globally
- Energy sources – Oil, gas, coal, nuclear, renewables
- Nuclear
- Renewables
- Who uses what? Sectors
- Who uses what? Countries
- Projections of future energy use – where does it lead us?
- Back to GHG emissions – future projections
Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Energy
- Primary energy use globally
- Total primary energy production: 560 EJ/y
- Fossil fuels: 461 EJ/y
- Oil: 176 EJ/y
- Coal: 166 EJ/y
- Gas: 119 EJ/y
- Nuclear: 27 EJ/y
- Renewables: 74 EJ/y
- Hydro: 13 EJ/y
- Biomass: 54 EJ/y
- Wind: 1.9 EJ/y
- Solar: 1.3 EJ/y
- Geothermal: 2.7 EJ/y
- Total primary energy use: 560 EJ/y
- Energy industry + transf.: 176 EJ/y
- Industry: 106 EJ/y
- Transport: 105 EJ/y
- Buildings: 130 EJ/y
- Non-energy 34 EJ/y
IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014
Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Energy
- Energy sources – Oil, gas, coal, nuclear, renewables
2012, Units: TJ
PRODUCT
Coal
Total primary energy supply 162075924
Transformation processes
-116196536
Total Electricity
-93962370
Total Heat
-5257954
Other transformation
-16976212
Energy industry own use
-3222976
All Own use
-3750742
Losses
-85836
Total final consumption
34194117
Industry
26617308
Transport
137049
Buildings
5805095
Non-energy use
1634665
Electricity output (GWh)
9057485
Oil
176204697
-21004083
-11814786
-423310
-8765986
-3349185
-3589757
-353108
149814249
12506255
97456297
18011249
21840447
1111131
Gas
119043068
-39772053
-46198009
-4115780
10541736
-17278660
-18234529
-844624
64123599
25160678
3783760
24799796
10379365
5218777
Biomass
54864224
-8238002
-4779553
-316150
-3142298
-491345
-940299
-8503
46113346
7448535
2510998
36153642
170
386695
Nuclear
26884432
-26884432
-26884432
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2461411
Hydro Geothermal
13222346
2785906
-13222346
-2458440
-13222346
-2446399
0
-12041
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-8325
0
316862
0
20270
0
0
0
296592
0
0
3672213
70246
- Coal:
- Primarily in electricity generation 58%
- Oil
- Primarily in transport 55% (of production) 65% (of final use)
- Gas
- Electricity (39%), industry (21%), buildings (21%)
- Biomass
- 84% for heating and cooking in developing countries
- Nuclear + renewables:
- Near to 100% into electricity
IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014
Solar
1270550
-421054
-420633
-421
0
-4
-8
0
849490
13343
0
836146
0
101954
Sea
1800
-1800
-1800
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
500
Wind
1874292
-1874292
-1874292
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
520543
Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Energy
- Nuclear
- Notes
- Forms ‘Exclusive nuclear club’
- Europe largest (mainly france, 80% of French Electricity)
- Followed by USA
- Japan + Korea large
- Fukushima accident: Japan nuclear uncertain, Germany phase out
IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014
Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Energy
- Renewables
- Notes
- Renewables are evenly distributed around the world (natural processes)
- Renewables are local resources, mostly not exportable (e.g. wind, solar)
- Dominated by hydro and biomass
- Hydro is the ‘most convenient’ renewable resource for electricity
- Biomass for heating and cooking, mostly in developing countries
- Renewables comparatively small, very small when excluding hydro
IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014
Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Energy
- Who uses what? Sectors
Coal
Oil
Total final consumption
34194117.4 149814249
Industry
26617308 12506255.4
Iron and steel
8724129.02
384662.09
Chemical and petrochemical
2921700.84 1528331.92
Non-ferrous metals
649777.5 220049.69
Non-metallic minerals
7821218.86 1612728.52
Transport equipment
183573.18
94465.68
Machinery
571421.28
305567.4
Mining and quarrying
309763.17 996966.56
Food and tobacco
910365.37 471049.21
Paper, pulp and print
735021.22 217576.65
Wood and wood products
93700.75
56241.37
Construction
275414.23 1083399.11
Textile and leather
381717.45
171339.3
Non-specified (industry)
3039505.42
5363875.3
Transport
137049.17 97456297.1
World aviation bunkers
0 6750578.06
Domestic aviation
0 4119992.37
Road
0 74983107.5
Rail
128852.67 1305957.25
Pipeline transport
0
15140.13
World marine bunkers
0 7907517.48
Domestic navigation
6204.79 2150041.84
Non-specified (transport)
1991.66 223962.32
Other
5805095.01 18011248.6
Residential
3211711.08 8756271.04
Commercial and public services 1216228.42 3679549.51
Agriculture/forestry
491750.72 4377963.47
Fishing
185.06 307532.38
Non-specified (other)
885219.68 889932.15
Non-energy use
1634665.27 21840447.3
Non-energy use industry/transformation/energy
1620869.88 20483768.8
Memo: Non-energy use chemical/petrochemical
98493.26 13917875.5
Non-energy use in transport
0 651902.97
Non-energy use in other
13795.38 704775.47
Electricity output (GWh)
9057485
1111131
2012 Total energy use, Units: TJ
Gas
64123598.7
25160677.9
5616722.15
4452195.88
599459.71
2171978.41
441896.9
952747.5
822665.72
1641061.27
912130.09
83181.29
249955.06
219384.47
6997299.36
3783759.79
0
0
1394139.71
0
2355688.16
0
2851.29
31080.75
24799795.9
16873809.8
7380303.01
348612.77
2396.9
194673.93
10379365.1
10379365.1
10306561.2
0
0
5218777
IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014
Biomass
46113345.6
7448535.39
165975.76
18301.02
2562.45
182496.37
849.37
5441.53
5533.94
1313270.21
2118306.98
245454.75
11666.39
6702.27
3371975
2510998.09
0
0
2482911.62
9164.49
0
2005.73
14048.6
2867.58
36153642.3
34688314.8
925988.25
367981.28
406.25
170952.19
169.65
169.65
0
0
0
386695
Nuclear
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2461411
Hydro Geothermal
0 316862.13
0
20270.06
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5.99
0
3.01
0
44
0
0
0
2.01
0
6646.71
0
1
0
28.01
0
4.02
0
13535.34
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 296592.12
0 161313.05
0
84410.7
0
47316.83
0
2281.55
0
1269.77
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3672213
70246
Solar
849489.75
13343.37
0
5.99
10.01
2.01
8
9
39.98
49.99
1
0
1
3.01
13213.37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
836146.33
247643.44
17331.72
230.99
4.98
570935.28
0
0
0
0
0
101954
Sea
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
500
Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
520543
Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Energy
- Who uses what? Countries
- Main features:
- EU, USA, other developed nations: large but flat energy consumption
- BRIC countries: large and very fast rising energy consumption
- Middle East and rest of the world: large and rising
- World: more than doubled since 1970
IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014
Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Energy
- Who uses what? Countries
COUNTRY
World
Africa
Middle East Asia - China China
Brazil
India
Russian
UK
USA
EU
Total primary energy supply 559818162
30681232
28493666
68816978
121790579
11795185
32997241
31677045
8048310
89623405
68813953
Transformation processes
-134955045
-6982776
-6840572
-17151387
-34741199
-1043621
-9337165
-7808591
-2006945
-22377084
-16554023
Total Electricity
-114445171
-3688925
-6306711
-15929101
-26581980
-672058
-8967988
-5883043
-1837463
-21534968
-15155294
Total Heat
-2139943
-2113
0
0
-1385632
-1396
0
-464900
-37593
0
-191854
Other transformation
-18369931
-3291739
-533861
-1222286
-6773587
-370167
-369178
-1460648
-131890
-842116
-1206875
Energy industry own use
-33052703
-981128
-2243771
-2961561
-6776573
-937914
-1314776
-2615069
-516680
-5698565
-3539352
All Own use
-40568272
-1132237
-2431004
-3405402
-8633874
-1419862
-1570537
-3509029
-596982
-7104374
-4435614
Losses
-8773393
-366132
-424644
-1179361
-1247459
-369123
-693409
-1199015
-146233
-1027769
-1130777
Total final consumption
375926902
22565206
18966532
47598645
71629443
9392987
21417101
19315458
5341093
59985671
47697894
Industry
106376918
3447384
5271081
14364975
33987695
3468847
7034248
6031475
1003597
10397856
11034056
Transport
104962026
3857342
5292527
8964057
10057745
3312669
3078446
3919825
1627410
25007785
12849410
Buildings
130733309
14413473
4742347
19619958
21870176
1926866
9812556
6572596
2422346
20209784
19683105
Non-energy use
33854647
847007
3660578
4649655
5713826
684606
1491851
2791562
287740
4370246
4131324
Electricity output (GWh)
22668076
719840
905005
2340159
5023607
552469
1127574
1069313
360871
4270771
3264137
- Main features:
- Industry important in BRIC countries
- Transport important in USA
- Buildings/homes important in Africa, EU
- Energy industry important in the Middle-East
- China largest energy user
- USA similar to EU
IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014
Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Energy
- Who uses what? Countries
COUNTRY
World
Africa
Total final consumption
375926902 22565206
Industry
106376918 3447384.5
Iron and steel
19492716.2 197392.25
Chemical and petrochemical
14919802 151913.6
Non-ferrous metals
4729592.33 134513.18
Non-metallic minerals
13921383.3 323438.42
Transport equipment
1707368.67
816.13
Machinery
5284969.55 10257.91
Mining and quarrying
3467347.78 222964.39
Food and tobacco
6386637.12
55346.9
Paper, pulp and print
6052843.7 13144.75
Wood and wood products
910168.62
2821.99
Construction
2271681.9 51349.18
Textile and leather
2118695.81 10784.36
Non-specified (industry)
25113709.4 2272641.3
Transport
104962026 3857341.8
World aviation bunkers
6750578.06 x
Domestic aviation
4119992.36 105280.44
Road
78868775.3 3657213.6
Rail
2241611.55 28539.66
Pipeline transport
2490719.07 37598.01
World marine bunkers
7909523.2 x
Domestic navigation
2173146.52 26338.11
Non-specified (transport)
407680.1
2371.82
Other
130733309 14413473
Residential
86920440.7 12671014
Commercial and public services
30255866.3 817164.01
Agriculture/forestry
7772957.02 465458.7
Fishing
332532.74
4325.47
Non-specified (other)
5451512.87 455510.69
Non-energy use
33854647.2 847006.68
Non-energy use industry/transformation/energy
32484173.4 835198.65
Memo: Non-energy use chemical/petrochemical
24322929.9 520521.86
Non-energy use in transport
651902.97
1394.96
Non-energy use in other
718570.85 10413.03
Electricity output (GWh)
22668076
719840
Middle EastAsia - China
China
18966532 47598645 71629443
5271081.1 14364975 33987695
37989.31 1856113.9 9432619.3
622176.19 983457.8 5176660.7
38422.51 33277.11 2083682.5
98169.66 1912265.3 6923936
0 25877.61 648693.37
0 300326.66 2081093.7
15046.27 128330.61 827475.43
0 485512.59 1204532.7
0 167447.63 853639.33
0 17172.62 220158.02
0 61747.81 631857.7
0
218039 1251017.6
4459277.2 8175406.5 2652328.9
5292526.9 8964056.7 10057745
x
x
x
46420.14 242670.4 513312.36
5225891.6 8282636 8149121.8
0 224848.03 511248.22
17873.45
0
7181.28
x
x
x
0 206118.22 805948.74
2341.72
7783.89 70933.02
4742346.8 19619958 21870176
3176361.8 15388735 15579034
962671.43 2002939.5 2602313.3
362997.23 1367725.9 1439090.1
0 70145.31
0
240316.5 790412.57 2249738.6
3660577.6 4649655 5713826.3
3659989.6 4640274.8 4947996.5
3299709.3 3734318.8 2627748.9
587.99
9165.24 325870.74
0
214.99 439958.99
905005 2340159 5023607
IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014
Brazil
9392987.4
3468847.2
557619.54
290687.22
293573.77
413164.39
0
0
133954.78
1007910.6
416384.84
0
371.79
46019.67
309160.47
3312669
x
159848.84
3028041.7
49815.01
20692
x
54271.44
0
1926865.7
993886.16
478788
433368.51
0
20823.01
684605.65
679737.24
359956.74
0
4868.41
552469
India
21417101
7034247.8
1560717.3
257939.54
14119.98
975428.9
0
17834.97
53100.1
284.49
46085.41
0
23078.9
67194.41
4018463.7
3078445.7
x
70512.62
2811395.2
165701.32
0
x
28944.1
1892.48
9812556.4
7620812.2
780030.02
962123.54
0
449590.68
1491850.6
1491850.6
1046138.6
0
0
1127574
Russian
19315458
6031475.3
1990562.1
1155954.4
333938.5
647336.89
165164.53
351561.7
234262.43
368281.81
292879.93
93097.85
204833.24
52875.39
140726.51
3919824.9
x
276575.99
1997405.4
242382.14
1232012.7
x
35299.58
136149.08
6572596.2
4601419.1
1500750.3
433226.62
35432.72
1767.25
2791561.8
2791561.8
2493798.3
0
0
1069313
UK
5341093
1003596.8
54538.09
155207.94
27747.68
111834.66
49973.98
78925.28
0
128719.82
84532.2
0
12320.2
32108.32
267688.71
1627410
x
29687.01
1542903.8
41901.75
0
x
12823.79
93.62
2422345.9
1660101.5
673977
35943.09
0
52324.37
287740.22
274293.81
169486.44
8567.99
4878.38
360871
USA
59985671
10397856
699052.87
2011736.8
403579.38
730984.42
334545.88
929962.85
343508.31
1109352
1707506.2
158443.63
521793.93
114216.11
1333174.2
25007785
x
2013891.2
21307407
530935.81
707849.67
x
447700.93
0
20209784
10645870
8251255.9
791007.31
0
521651.08
4370245.9
4256384
2976639.9
113861.99
0
4270771
EU
47697894
11034056
1385186
2363139.2
401556.24
1465035
349739.65
807298.02
128101.47
1176502.8
1428275.5
294404.85
266828.57
196326.25
771660.99
12849410
x
230479.03
11990485
292194.59
59956.61
x
184428.92
91865.8
19683105
12105357
6216557.8
996992.34
45338.4
318859.15
4131324
4017202.3
3095700
80455.01
33666.69
3264137
Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Energy
- Projections of future energy use – where does it lead us?
2008 TPED = 514 EJ
(IEA WEO 2010)
Fossil fuels: 425 EJ (82%)
(IEA WEO 2010)
2100 TPED = 600 – 1200 EJ
 1.1 – 2.3 higher than today
Edenhofer et al. The economics of low stabilisation, Energy Journal, 2010, special issue
Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Energy
- Projections of future energy use – where does it lead us ? – Electricity
Mercure et al. Energy Policy 2014
Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change
- Energy
- Back to GHG emissions – future projections – IPCC
100
60
40
GtCO2/y
80
20
0
CO2: O – C – O
Mass C: 12 atomic units
Mass O: 16 atomic units
Mass CO2: (12+16+16) = 44 Atomic units
=> Conversion factor
C -> CO2 = 3.666
Lecture 1: Further reading
- Following this lecture, please read:
- IPCC AR5 WGIII Technical Summary (TS) 2014 – go the IPCC website
and download the report!
- IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2014 – free IEA publication
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/
key-world-energy-statistics-2014.html
(Type Key World Energy Statistics 2014 in google!)
- Have a scan through IPCC AR5 WGI Technical Summary 2013
(Not in the exam! But know your IPCC!)
- Questions in the exam: could be on anything in this presentation, including in the readings!
Practical work (essay) to be submitted on March 8th (at the last lecture, 30% final grade)
- We will be using an electricity sector policy simulation software
- We will form teams of 4
- For each team: find a computer with Matlab/Install Matlab on your computer
- Please read the model and scenario descriptions:
Mercure (2012) Energy Policy 48 799-811 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.201206.025
Mercure et al. (2014) Energy Policy 73 696-700 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.06.029
- The essay will be about creating scenarios of electricity policy
- The model is available at http://www.4cmr.group.cam.ac.uk/research/FTT/fttviewer
Lecture 1: References
Edenhofer et al. The economics of low stabilisation, Energy Journal, 2010, special issue
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/sustainablesolutions/flagshipspld/MitigationScenarios/adam
IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion 2014, IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014
Access IEA databases through
http://ukdataservice.ac.uk/get-data/key-data/international-macro-databanks.aspx
IPCC AR5 WGI (2013), IPCC AR5 WGIII (2014)
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Work Group 1: The physical sciences basis (2013), http://www.ipcc.ch
Work Group 3: Mitigation of Climate Change (2014)
IPCC AR4 WGII (2007), IPCC AR4 WGIII (2007)
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/
IPCC Guidelines for national GHG inventories (2006)
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/
Mercure, J.-F., Salas, P., Foley, A., Chewpreecha, U., Pollitt, H., Holden, P. B., & Edwards, N. R.
(2014). The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the
decarbonisation of the global electricity sector. Energy Policy, 73, 686–700.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.06.029