Transcript Cambio Climatico y Desarrollo (CC&D)

Transportation and Emissions
in Chile
March, 2003
Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP)
Cambio Climatico y Desarrollo (CC&D)
Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA)
International Institute for Sustainable Development
(IISD)
Introduction





Climate Science Trends
Latest IPCC Findings
Transportation & Climate Change
Chile’s Contribution to CO2 Emissions
Conclusions & Next Steps
Latest IPCC Findings

Global average surface temperature has increased
over the 20th century by ~ 1°F.

1990s warmest decade on record, 1998 warmest yr.

Global avg. sea level rose 4-8” in 20th century.


Present CO2 concentration highest in 20 million
years. Rate of increase is unprecedented during at
least the past 20,000 years.
“There is new and stronger evidence that most of
the warming observed over the last 50 years is
attributable to human activities.”
Latest IPCC Findings
 Average surface temperature is predicted to
increase by 2.5 °F - 10.4 °F
 The projected warming rate is the highest in
at least 10,000 years
 The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) has estimated that sea level
rise would be 20 cm by 2030 and 1-m by
2100
Transportation & Climate Change
 Key factors
 Travel activity (VMT, ton-miles)
 Mode split
 Vehicle energy intensity (mpg, loading)
 Fuel carbon content (lifecycle)
 In Chile, the transportation sector
represents largest source of man-made
GHG emissions - approximately 28%
Background
 Pew Center for Global Climate Change:
Transport GHG emissions in Chile could
increase by 117% in the ‘business-as-usual’
(BAU) scenario (2000-2020) versus 42% in the
low emissions scenario (LES)
- BAU = no strong actions to curb GHG emissions
- LES = policies to improve public transportation and
introduce cleaner, more efficient vehicles
Passenger Travel by Mode
 In Greater Santiago, between 1977 and
1991, car trips increased by ~6% while bus
trips declined by ~18%
 1 in 10 people in Santiago, now own cars
 Passenger transportation accounts for about
2/3 of transportation sector GHG emissions
Chile’s CO2 Emissions by Mode (2000)
Airplanes
9%
Buses
10%
Ships
13%
Cars &
Light
Trucks
36%
Trucks
22%
Taxis
10%
Emissions from Passenger Cars
GHGs from Passenger Cars in Chile: 2000 - 2020
(Data from Pew Center Report)
150%
Grow th Relative to 2000
140%
Vehicle Kilometers
Total GHGs
130%
GHG Emissions Rate
120%
110%
100%
90%
80%
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Conclusions
This project, with its emphasis on mitigating
CO2 from the transportation sector, can:
 Quantify the potential CO2 benefit of travel
demand, vehicle efficiency and other
transportation policies
 Set a precedent for the role transportation
projects must play in addressing the
challenge of climate change