Transcript Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

PRECIS
Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies
The Hadley Centre regional climate modelling system
A presentation to the UNFCCC workshop on
non-Annex 1 national communication preparation guidelines
by
Richard Jones, Met Office Hadley Centre, UK
8 April 2003
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Outline
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Background: Motivation and PRECIS overview
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PRECIS components and their application
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Future climate scenarios available from PRECIS
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Applying PRECIS in impacts assessment
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Limitations of PRECIS and future developments
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Motivation
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UNFCCC requirement to assess national vulnerability and plans for
adaptation
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UNFCCC requirement to submit National Communications
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Both need estimate of impacts
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Impacts need detailed scenarios of future climate
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Scenarios are best produced locally, using expert knowledge and
increasing ownership
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Predicting impacts
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Who is PRECIS for?
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Government scientists from less developed countries involved in vulnerability and
adaptation studies
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A regional model’s domain usually encompasses several countries, so it is hoped
that neighbouring countries will collaborate to produce ensembles
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It is hoped to draw on local resources, such as expertise in local climate
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Who funds PRECIS?
DEFRA
DFID
Hadley
Centre's
RCM
PC RCM
and user
interface
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UNDP
Training
material
Hardware requirements
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PC running under the Linux operating system
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Memory : 512MB minimum; 768MB recommended
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Minimum 60GB disk space + offline storage for archiving data
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Simulation speed proportional to chip speed
How fast does it go?
30 year integration, 100x100 grid points
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T3E (supercomputer)
- 1.5 months
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PC (Intel P4 2.8 GHz)
- 4.5 months
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(36 Processors)
PRECIS: PC system components
PRECIS: PC system
USER Interface
Regional Model
Domain
Scenario
Period
Diagnostics
Run PRECIS
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Graphic package
PRECIS components: full list
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User-interface to set up RCM experiments
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The latest Hadley Centre RCM
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Data-processing and graphics software
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Boundary conditions from latest Hadley Centre GCM
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Training course and materials
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PRECIS website and helpdesk
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
What is a Regional Climate Model?
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Comprehensive physical high resolution climate model that covers
a limited area of the globe, usually including the atmosphere and
land surface components of the climate system, and containing
representations of the important processes within the climate
system (e.g., cloud, radiation, rainfall, soil hydrology).
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Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
Limited area models driven
at the boundaries by
GCM observed boundary
data.
Resolution of 50km
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Boundary conditions
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Requests through
– PRECIS website
– helpdesk
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Training course and supporting material
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Training in the use of PRECIS will focus on:
– Background science including uncertainties
– Interpretation of PRECIS results by regional experts
– Construction of regional climate change scenarios
– Building capacity in countries/regions using PRECIS
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PRECIS will be supplied with:
– a workbook covering the background science, system description and the uses and
limitations of PRECIS
– a technical manual explaining technical details about the system and how install
and to use it
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Support and follow-up
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Helpdesk
– email, phone
– web-based discussion
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Website
– news
– updates
– datasets
– resources
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Collaboration/workshops
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Applications of RCMs
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Regional detail when simulating current climate
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Realistic detail in climate change predictions
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Resolution of islands, smaller countries e.g. Italy
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Realistic simulation of extreme events
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Provides comprehensive data for impact models
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WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER BRITIAN
Observed, and simulated with RCM and GCM
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SIMULATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
in the PRECIS regional climate model
Global climate model
Regional climate model
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WINTER DAILY RAINFALL OVER THE SW CAPE,
SOUTH AFRICA
SW Cape winter rainfall: Observed - red, GCM - green, RCM - blue
<0.1 0.1-5 5-20 20-30 30-40 >40
mm/day
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CHANGES IN MONSOON PRECIPITATION
between the present day and the middle of the 21st century
Global climate model Regional climate model
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SUMMER TEMPERATURES in the 2080s
compared to the present day, due to A2 emissions
Global climate model
Regional climate model
Climate on islands changes very differently to the surrounding Mediterranean Sea, and can
only be predicted using an RCM
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Future climate scenarios available from PRECIS
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PRECIS can provide:
– climate scenarios for any region
– an estimate of uncertainty due different emissions
– an estimate of uncertainty due to climate variability
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Data available from PRECIS
– comprehensive for atmosphere and land-surface
– grid-scale box average quantities
– maximum time resolution one hour
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CO2 EMISSIONS PROFILES
under IPCC SRES scenarios
Source:
IPCC
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GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISE
due to four SRES emissions scenarios
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Applying PRECIS in impacts assessments
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Obtain current state from impacts model via:
a) observed data e.g. as used in model validation
b) RCM control data
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Obtain future state from impacts model using:
– RCM climate changes (in means, variability, etc) applied to observed
data (compare with a)
– RCM future climate data directly (compare with b)
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BAY OF BENGAL CYCLONE
simulated by the PRECIS regional climate model
Resulting storm surge simulated using
the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory model
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CHANGE IN ANNUAL SURFACE RUNOFF
between today and the 2080s, for A2 emissions
Southampton University hydrological model
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Current limitations of PRECIS
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10 year simulations take a month or more
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It is a model hence imperfect, i.e. uncertainty due to use of only one
RCM is not captured
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Uncertainty due to imperfect driving data (i.e. from only one GCM)
is not captured
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Resolution of 50km or 25km insufficient for some impacts
applications
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Coastal or marine impacts have to be inferred (e.g. storm surges)
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PRECIS: treatment of uncertainties
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PRECIS accounts for uncertainties due to:
– Future emissions - uses 4 SRES scenarios
– Natural variability - uses initial condition ensembles
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PRECIS does not account for uncertainties due to:
– The conversion of emissions to concentrations - carbon cycle or chemistry (except
sulphur cycle) not represented
– Uncertainty in the response of the climate system - only boundary conditions from 1
GCM are used
– Uncertainty in the detailed climate change - only one RCM is used
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CHANGE IN S ASIA SUMMER RAINFALL with PREDICTED BY NINE
GCMs (A2 emissions)
A2 emissions scenario
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% CHANGE IN
WINTER
PRECIPITATION
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REPRESENTATION OF THE PHILIPPINES
WITH DIFFERENT MODEL RESOLUTIONS
25km RCM resolution
50km RCM resolution GCM 300km resolution
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FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
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Continuously upgraded to new processors
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Ability to run PRECIS RCM from different GCMs
– at least two to be added this year
– relevant cooperation from GCM centres being sought
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Intercomparisons of all RCMs being organised
– No plans for PRECIS to incorporate other RCMs
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Resolution of model being improved to 10km
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RCM with ocean component being built
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Final remarks
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You can contact us via:
– Email: [email protected]
– Tel: +44 1344 856885
– Fax: +44 1344 854898
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Web-site for information on PRECIS
– www.hadleycentre.com/models/PRECIS.html
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research