Transcript Lecture 26 PPTX

MET 102 Pacific
Climates and Cultures
Lecture 26: Pacific Island
Climate Vulnerability
Discussion Questions – Aalbersberg 1993
• Describe the “Greenhouse Effect” and why it is necessary to keep the earth
habitable.
• The greenhouse effect is a
temperature-regulating
mechanism which involves longwave heat radiation from the
Earth’s surface being absorbed by
“greenhouse gases” in the lower
atmosphere, then being emitted
(re-radiated_ back to the Earth’s
surface.
• The greenhouse effect has existed
on Earth for millions of years;
without it the Earth would
experience extremes of cold.
Discussion Questions – Aalbersberg 1993
• What are the three main climate change impacts discussed? What are the
implications?
• The hydrologic cycle and ENSO
• Intensification of the hydrologic cycle would increase
evapotranspiration, precipitation and (river) runoff
• For ENSO you would expect changes in pressures and
the resulting weather patterns.
• Tropical Cyclones
• The frequency of tropical cyclones in most parts of the
Pacific has increased, likely due to a rise in the
temperatures of the oceans in the Central South Pacific.
• More storms = More Damage
• Sea Level Rise
• Thermal expansion and land-ice melting.
• Rising water on low islands!
Discussion Questions – Aalbersberg 1993
• What are the six ways Global Warming can affect Agriculture?
1. Increased temperatures
• This will cause heat stress on many plants.
• Increased evaporation many lead to increased drought, especially in drier areas during the dry season.
2. Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
2.
3.
This will increase plant growth, although this will be less
pronounced for sugar cane and maize.
Faster growth will also lessen time to maturity. This
could decrease yields and perhaps food value
2. The sugar content of cane cold, for example, be lessened.
Yet for rice, this could permit an additional crop per year.
4.
Weeds will also grow faster, competing with plants for
water and soil nutrients.
3. Precipitation Patterns
• Potentially increased rainfall with greater intensity, likely
during the rainy season.
• The would lead to increased erosion, flooding and
leaching of nutrients from the soil
• Hurricanes are also predicted to be more frequent.
Discussion Questions – Aalbersberg 1993
• What are the six ways Global Warming can affect Agriculture?
4. Shifts in Areas/Location for Agriculture
• Warming upland areas could be planted with
crops that previously could not be grown there.
• Sea-level rise will claim coastal land that is
currently used for agriculture through
inundation or salinization.
5. Agricultural pests
• Changes in temperature and humidity can lead
to shifts in the populations of pests that may
result in lower yields and increased loss during
storage.
6. Human Activity
• Farmers are less likely to be as productive as
temperatures climb and humidity increases.
Discussion Questions – Aalbersberg 1993
• What four ways can these
changes be dealt with?
1. Collect and Evaluate Agricultural Data
• know yields of crops under conditions likely to be predominant in
the future
• Studies of coping strategies that farmers currently employ in time
of drought, etc.
2. Network Internationally
• These issues are global ones.
• Be aware of research and experiments in other areas and learn to
apply them to the south Pacific.
3. Water Management
• More rainfall and increased possibility of drought means the
economics of food control and irrigation infrastructure need to be
re-evaluated.
4. Encourage Good Agricultural Practices
• Practices like minimum tillage, wind protection, irrigation,
contour and strip planting on slopes, and the sensible use of
fertilizers and pesticides will be crucial.
Human Forced, Climate Change is an Empirical
Scientific Fact
Two necessary responses:
1. Mitigation – reducing GHG emissions to a safe level
2. Adaptation – adapting to impacts of unavoidable climate change
International Recognition of Climate Change as
a Security Issue
Make no mistake… climate change not only exacerbates
threats to peace and security, it is a threat to international
peace and security
Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary-General
• Climate change has very real implications for international
peace and security
• Susan Rice (US Ambassador to UN)
• Most national security establishments considered global
warming as among the biggest security challenges of the
century
• Peter Wittig (Permanent Representative of Germany to UN)
Source: Security Council 6587th Meeting, 2011
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2011/sc10332.doc.htm
Future Climate Change Impacts
• Rising sea levels - storms surges, king tides, coastal inundation, ground water intrusion
• Increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events – more droughts & floods
• Increasing land and sea temperatures
• Ocean acidification
• Shifting ocean currents
• Melting of land ice
The Challenge for the South Pacific
• South Pacific region:
• 22 Island Countries
&Territories
• 200 high islands
• 2,500 low islands &
atolls
• Pop. 2010: 9.9 million
(15 million by 2035) 60%
rural/40% urban
Summary of Regional Climate Change
 Temperatures increase
 More very hot days
 Sea level will continue to rise
 Changing rainfall patterns
 Ocean acidification continues
 Less frequent but more intense
tropical cyclones
 Potential changes to ocean
currents
Source: Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific
Assessment and New Research. Volume 1:
Regional Overview. Volume 2: Country Reports.
Available from November 2011.
The average positions of the major climate features in November to April. The arrows show near surface
winds, the blue shading represents the bands of rainfall convergence zones, the dashed oval shows the
West Pacific Warm Pool and H represents typical positions of moving high pressure systems.
Increase in Local Extremes not just Means
• Generally, increasing intensity &
frequency of extreme events;
floods, droughts, fires, cyclones
(not earthquakes)
Local Climate Changes
• No one lives in a place
called “Average”
• The question is how will the
climate change where you live
and work?
Exposure is a Critical Factor
http://www.crs.org/media-center/typhoonhaiyan-update
• Super Typhoon Haiyan’s
devastation was directly related
to the number of people and
the infrastructure in it’s path.
• As climate changes new risks
will emerge for each island and
sub-sections of islands.
Adaptive Capacity Varies Within/Between Countries
Source: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-04/pacific-warriors-climate-change-action/4550898
• They have long been described as climate refugees: the hundreds of
thousands of people living on low-lying Pacific islands who may be
forced to migrate if rising sea levels leave their homes uninhabitable.
• But it is a term Pacific leaders say is loaded with political connotations
and does not reflect the true dimensions of the problem.
Migration, Displacement & Refugees
• A number of dimensions of climate change have the
potential – along with non-climatic environmental
changes – to influence the drivers of migration
• Internal and trans-boundary migration
• Poses logistical challenges & geo-political challenges
• Trapped populations
Book Access:
http://igps.victoria.ac.nz/pu
blications/publications/sho
w/300
•
Cities are extremely vulnerable to future environmental change
• Long term interactions critical
Source: Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change (2011) Final Project Report. The Government Office for Science, London
Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries
1.
2.
3.
4.
Changes in the distribution and abundance of tuna
Decline in coastal fisheries and coral reefs
Increases in freshwater fisheries production
Increased operating costs
• A range of adaptations can substantially reduce the risks and costs, but
they need to be tailored to the circumstances
• Planning for change is vital because fish is the single biggest source of
animal protein in the Pacific diet.
• Another 115,000 tonnes of fish needed to help provide good nutrition
for the expanding population of the region by 2030 - an increase of
47%
Source: Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture to Climate Change, published by the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC)
Climate Change Impacts on Vector-Borne Diseases
• VBDs such as malaria, dengue,
tick-borne diseases and plague are
particularly susceptible for a
number of reasons that tend to
favour warmer, wetter
environments including:
• geographical distribution
• behaviour of vectors and
their hosts are intimately
associated with
environmental determinants
• transmission dynamics
Countries or areas at risk of dengue, 2011.
The disease is currently distributed only in areas in which the temperature remains >10°C year-round.)
Source: Final project report: Strengthen control of vector borne diseases to lessen the impact of climate change in the Western Pacific Region with focus on Cambodia, Mongolia and Papua
New Guinea. World Health Organization Western Pacific Region 2012; http://www.wpro.who.int/mvp/climate_change/en/
Climate Change Impacts on Vector-Borne Diseases
• In recent years, cases
of malaria reported at
increasingly higher
altitudes - the effects
of climate change such
as increased ambient
temperature, rainfall
affecting the
availability of breeding
sites and vector
ecology and indirect
effects on human
behaviour, may be
contributory factors
• Historically experienced relatively few malaria outbreaks
and the population has limited immunity to the disease
and less awareness of its prevention than lowland
populations.
Source: Final project report: Strengthen control of vector borne diseases to
lessen the impact of climate change in the Western Pacific Region with focus on
Cambodia, Mongolia and Papua New Guinea. World Health Organization
Western Pacific Region 2012;
http://www.wpro.who.int/mvp/climate_change/en/
Climate Change Adaptation
• Adaptation consists of
actions undertaken to
reduce the adverse
consequences of climate
change, as well as to
harness any beneficial
opportunities.
• Adaptation actions aim
to reduce the impacts
of climate stresses on
human and natural
systems.
Special role for Ecosystem-Based Adaptation
• Sustainably managing, conserving and restoring
ecosystems so that they continue to provide
the services that allow people to adapt to
climate change.
• This approach builds on traditional knowledge
Source: www.bestlibrary.org/newslaw/2008/07/welcome.html
• Generates a range of social, economic and
cultural benefits and helps to conserve
biodiversity
“Approaches that involve the services that biodiversity and
ecosystems provide as part of an overall adaptation
strategy to help people adapt to the adverse effects of
climate change are known as ecosystem-based approaches
to adaptation. The underlying principle is that healthy
ecosystems can play a vital role in maintaining and
increasing resilience to climate change and in reducing
climate-related risk and vulnerability.” (Source: UNFCCC
SSBSTA Report FCCC/SBSTA/2011/INF.8)
• Co-benefits for climate change mitigation
through improved retention and restoration of
ecosystem carbon stocks
• Community leadership critical
Unfair Share of the Impact
“People from Melanesia heavily rely on
their land for their livelihoods. They
depend on their environment for food
and income from cash crops, for clean
water, fertile soil, forests for building
materials, medicine and for hunting.
Compared to other countries, most
Melanesians have very small ‘carbon
footprints’ having contributed very little
to global warming and climate change.
Unfortunately they will be among those
most vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change due to their high
dependency on their immediate
environment and close proximity to the
coast.”
~Live & Learn Environmental Education
Dietary Patterns
Crops-grown on land
accessed through customary
land tenure arrangement or
leased from traditional land
owners
Source: Sharma K.L. (2006) Food Security in the South Pacific Island Countries with Special Reference to the Fiji Islands. Research Paper No. 2006/68, UNU.
Source: The World
Fact Book, CIA
GDP and Agricultural Workforce
Country
GDP
(US$B)
GDP per
capita ($)
% GDP in
Agriculture
% workforce in
Agriculture
Fiji
The Solomon
Islands
3.946
4,800
11
70
1.039
3,400
33
75
Vanuatu
0.761
4,900
21
65
New Caladonia
9..28
37,700
2
20
15.390
2,700
28
85
Kiribati
0.174
5,900
24
3
Samoa
0.712
6,200
9
65
PNG
Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Methodology
Source: Skewes et al. (2011) Melanesian coastal and marine ecosystem assets: assessment framework and Milne Bay case study. CSIRO.
Examples of Ecosystem-Based Adaptation
Measures that Provide co-benefits
Adaptation measure
Mangrove
conservation
Adaptive function
Protection against
storm surges, sealevel rise and
coastal
inundation
Forest conservation and Maintenance of
nutrient and
sustainable forest
water flow
management
Prevention of
land slides
Social and cultural
Economic
Provision of employment
options (fisheries
and prawn cultivation)
Biodiversity
Mitigation
Generation of income to
local communities
through marketing
Contribution to food security of mangrove products
(fish, dyes, medicines)
Conservation of
species that live or
breed in
mangroves
Conservation of carbon
stocks, both above and
below-ground
Opportunities for
Conservation of
habitat for forest
plant and animal
species
Conservation of carbon
stocks
 Recreation
 Culture
 Protection of
Indigenous peoples
and local
Communities
Potential generation of
income through:
 Ecotourism,
Recreation
Reduction of emissions
from deforestation
degradation
 Non-wood forest
products
Source: Convention on Biological Diversity. Connecting Biodiversity and Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: Report of the Second Ad Hoc Technical
Expert Group on Biodiversity and Climate Change. Technical Series No. 41. Montreal: Convention on Biological Diversity
Costs of Adaptation: Example in Lami Town, Fiji
• Small Islands, like Fiji, don’t have huge
economies.
• Note: The dollar amounts are x 1000!!!
• $1,781 = $1,781,000!!!!
• $12, 377 = $15,188,000!!!
Source: Rao N.S., Carruthers T.J.B., Anderson P., Sivo L., Saxby T.,
Durbin, T., Jungblut V., Hills T., Chape S. 2013. An economic
analysis of ecosystem-based adaptation and engineering options
for climate change adaptation in Lami Town, Republic of the Fiji
Islands. A technical report by the Secretariat of the Pacific
Regional Environment Programme. – Apia, Samoa : SPREP 2013
• To implement all of these changes
would be a huge strain on such a small
island’s economy
• $18,614,000 (~18.5 million FJD$)
No Shortage of Climate Change Adaptation
Activity in the Region
• Pacific Islands Framework for Action on Climate Change (PIFACC)
• Hundreds of “on-ground”, community-based climate change projects
under way in the South Pacific.
• What will happen to the data and information they produce? Will it be
“discoverable” and “re-usable” by practitioners and decision makers?
• Will national and regional priorities be addressed? Will knowledge gaps
be filled? How will wasteful duplication be avoided?
• Will these on-ground projects run by partners be guided by and
consistent with national and regional policies?
• Will they be integrated into strategic planning and governmental
processes?
$600 billion to 1.5 trillion (2012)
Estimated annual cost to help
developing countries transition to
low-carbon and climate-resilient
economies
Australia invested $150 million from
2008–09 to meet high priority climate
adaptation needs in vulnerable
countries. This assistance will be
scaled up by $178.2 million over two
years to 2012–13—a total of $328.2
million
No Shortage of Climate Change
Funds for the Region
Green Climate Fund
$100 billion per year by 2020 for mitigation and
adaptation in developing countries
Regional Priorities
1. Accessing Climate change adaptation finance
 Mitigation a funding opportunity e.g. diesel generators, REDD
2. Harmonisation & prioritization of regional climate change
mitigation & adaptation projects & programs
 National priorities (e.g. PNG VBD)
 Shared problems (coastal zone management, tourism, water security)
 Trans-border issues (migration/displacement, fisheries)
3. Capacity building of early career practitioners & researchers in
country line-departments and regional bodies
4. Mainstreaming climate change responses into sustainable
development, green economy & national/community planning

Scenarios  Strategies  Options  Actions