Transcript ppt - Annabel Porte

Documenting Climate
Change Impacts Through
Scientific Research
ANNABEL J. PORTÉ
[email protected]
[email protected]
The most visible signs
Before/after
program:
Glacier
melting
U.S. Geological Survey
Pedersen Glacier,
Alaska, ~1930s and
2005
Before/after
program:
Glacier
melting
Grinnell Glacier
Overlook, Montana,
1920 and 2008
Glacier National Park in
Montana is expected to
be glacier free by the
year 2030 if present
warming trends
continue.
Sea level rising, Papua New
Guinea, Dec. 2006
Rising sea levels in the South Pacific have led to
the evacuation of a whole island community (2009,
1500 persons)
Sea level
rising,
Soulac sur
Mer, France
1960- 200m – 219 yards
2014 -15 m – 16 yards
In 2014, for security reasons,
the inhabitants of this building
were forbidden to live there
anymore by the French
government
Dec 2015 : Sea level rising,
Tangier Island, VA
The three-mile-long island has lost over 65 percent of its
landmass since 1850. And if this continues at the same
rate, the island will be uninhabitable in 50 years.
727 people will have to leave by 2040
Report of the US Army Corps of Engineers and US Geological Survey
What is climate
change?
The greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
(CO2, CH4, N2O)
accumulate in the
atmosphere. They
absorb thermal
radiation (heat) from
the Earth’s surface,
and redirect it back
down to the Earth,
heating up our planet.
This is called the
GREENHOUSE EFFECT.
Where do WE come into this?
Fossil fuels, deforestation and agriculture
MOO!
Burning Fossil Fuels
Deforestation
By burning fossil fuels for energy
such as coal, oil and gas, we are
releasing extra CO2 into the
atmosphere.
Trees use CO2 in the
atmosphere for
photosynthesis and to
provide us with oxygen, but
some trees are cut down for
agricultural / mine purposes.
Agriculture
We breed many cows for milk
and meat, but when cows
release methane CH4 (another
greenhouse gas) into the
atmosphere. Fertlisation with
nitrogen results in N2O
emissions
Scientific Evidence for Human Induced
Climate Change
The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has always fluctuated. However
the amount of CO2 has quickly risen during the last 150 years.
Since 1950,
atmospheric
CO2 has
gone up by
100 ppm
www.climate.nasa.gov/evidence
The rise is CO2 induces the rise in
temperature
The rate of change is TEN times faster than the Earth’s usual rate
of recovery to warmer temperatures after an ice age.
… and modify the global climate with
an increase in extreme climatic events
Summer
temperature from
the XXIth century
present numerous
extreme hot years
Floodings are increasing
in the North East (190958 vs 59-2008)
Extreme droughts are
increasing in the West
Barriopedro et al. 2011 Science, Peterson et al. 2013 Bull Am Ecol Soc
What will happen
in forests?
Bird species
are not
migrating
as far south
in winter
Audubon winter
surveys from 1966 to
2013
Average speed 6 miles
/ 14 km per decade
Max speed 13 miles /
21 km per decade
As birds, trees
are tracking
temperature
changes
The original range of
the Holy tree in
Norway was limited
by cold temperatures
(dark line).
50 years later the
isotherm was moved
by climate change
(red line) and new
populations of Holy
were observed (red
dots).
Walther et al. (2005) Proc. R. Soc. B
16
Migration
towards
cooler
habitats
Changes in species
communities (Penuelas
and Boada 2003)
Altitudinal upward
shift of beech forest in
Spanish Pyrenees
mountains
(Penuelas et al. 2003,
07 Ecography)
Top
Midlle
Bottom
All tree
species are
not capable
of the same
migration
According to the
species and to the
moutain, tree
distributions are
changing differently
(Urli et al 2014 JVS)
Spain
Q. petraea
Q. faginea
Changes over 10 years
Historical data indicate that
mediterranean species have
been settling North
Quercus ilex
Quercus robur
Pointe de Grave
Hourtin Lake
Lacanau Lake
Arcachon Bay
Bordeaux
Sanguinet Lake
Biscarosse Lake
Delzon et al. 2013 Plos one
19
Tree migration speeds won’t be
enough to track climate change
Q. ilex
km.dec-1 Hourtin
km.dec-1
Longeville
Olonne
Pays de
Monts
Mean
0.25
0.16
0.18
0.14
Max
0.56
0.37
0.29
0.22
Fagus
sylvatica
Max 1/3
mile in
10 years
Q. petraea
Q. faginea
Q. suber
Q. ilex
Pyr.
-0.034
0.036
0.93
-0.03
0.02
Syst. Ib.
-0.001
0.18
0.025
-0.03
0.02
On a map climate is « moving » with a speed of 1070 km (6-43 miles) over 10 years
20
Forest FACE Synthesis Project
Objective:
Quantify CO2 effect on growth
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
21
CO2 effect
positive only
on the short
term
Increase in photosynthesis on the short term
Ainsworth et Long
2004, Ainsworth et
Rogers 2007
Leuzintger et al 2011
PNAS
22
Growing
season is
increasing but
plants also
need cold
Leaf fall
Bud burst
Growth season
Leaf Unfolding
Vitasse et al.
2009
Oecologia
+9.7 j°C-1
310
200
120
290
170
100
270
140
160 4
In agriculture,
scientists are
searching for
species or
varieties that
compensate
the changes
+6.9
12
310
120
290
100
270
R² = 0.57
P < 0.0001
160 4
6
Fraxinus
excelsior
8
10
12
250
14
4
330
140
310
120
290
100
270
R² = 0.95
P < 0.0001
80
160 4
+13.0 j°C-1
Fagus
8 sylvatica
10
140
80
j°C-1
6
250
14
6
330
6
Quercus
petraea
8
10
12
140
250
14
4
330
Fagus sylvatica
10
12
14
8
16
18
290
100
270
R² = 0.88
P < 0.0001
80
4
6
8
10
12
250
14
6
110
260
R² = 0.75
P < 0.0001
4
230
6
8 sylvatica
10
Fagus
12
14
8
10
Fraxinus
excelsior
12
14
8
10
Quercus
petraea
12
14
12
14
R² = 0.89
P < 0.0001
200
170
140
R² = 0.75
P < 0.0001
6
Fraxinus
excelsior
8
10
12
14
110
260
4
230
6
R² = 0.73
P < 0.0001
200
170
140
R² = 0.02
P > 0.5
6
8
10
Quercus
petraea
12
110
14 260 4
230
310
120
Acer pseudoplatanus
230
140
R² = 0.85
P < 0.0001
Canopy duration
260
Acer pseudoplatanus
330
80
+8.0 j°C-1
Leaf senescence
Acer pseudoplatanus
160
6
R² = 0.89
P < 0.0001
200
170
140
R² = 0.81
P < 0.0001
8
110
10
12
14
16
Temperature (°C)
18
4
6
8
10
Mortality:
Massive
forest tree
diebacks
White dots indicate
documented localities
with forest mortality
related to climatic
stress from drought
and high temperatures
(Allen et al. 2010 FEM)
Images of climateinduced forest die-off
from around the
world. Clockwise from
top left: Spain,
Colorado, New Mexico
and Argentina
Understanding species resistance
Extreme drought until death
Populus
tremula
(Pt)
Quercus
robur
(Qr)
Hydraulic resistance
Quercus
petraea
(Qp)
Fagus
sylvatica
(Fs)
Quercus
ilex
(Qi)
Water potential
Photosynthesis
25
Q. ilex is twice
as much
resistant than
Q. robur which
is living under
death threat in
SW France
Bordeaux
Ψ (MPa)
P88
Ψléthal
Q. robur
Q. ilex
-3.41
-7.08
-3.55 ±0.26 -6.04 ±0.35
Urli et al. 2013 Tree Phys.
Urli et al. 2014
26
Hydraulic safety margin can help
understand forest vulnerability
Choat et al. 2012 Nature
27
So what can we
do in forests?
o Combined effects of changes in
temperature / water / CO2 / N
Many impacts
and responses
are still
unknown
o Species differences
o Intra-specific differences
o Future projections using
models
Assisted migration, one way to help
Williams and Dumroese 2013 J Forestry
http://www.efiatlantic.efi.int/portal/
What we know
o Current climate change is higher and faster in
magnitude than any precedent
o Impacts are already visible on water, glacier,
animals, plants, humans
What we know
o Trees are not running fast enough
o All trees won’t be able to resist the changes
where they are
o Trees present some adaptive capacities that
could help maintain them or migrate them
Thank you