Transcript Progress towards the Development of Climate Change and Sea

Progress towards the development of Climate
Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for
South Florida
Jayantha Obeysekera and Jenifer Barnes
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
South Florida Water, Sustainability, and Climate Project
Key Largo, March 3, 2013
Outline
 SFWMD research on climate change – progress
summary
 Results of a 2 month exercise for the workshop on
“Predicting Ecological Change in the Florida
Everglades in a Future Climate Scenario” (FAU-CES,
USGS, Florida Sea Grant, Jan 24-25, 2013)
• Rationale for scenario selection
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Sea Level Rise
• Scenario simulation using SFWMM (a.k.a. 2x2
model)
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Hydrologic Cycle - new paradigm of
“Non-stationarity”
Primary Variables of
interest:
SOLAR RADIATION
 Temperature
 Precipitation
 Evapotranspiration
 Saltwater Intrusion
Implications for:
 Water Management
 Energy
 Agriculture
 Tourism
 Health
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Everglades Restoration – Will traditional
planning approach work?
Natural System
Managed System
CERP
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Nonstaionarity – A new paradigm for
design
p0
zq0
p3
p2
p1
Key West
q1
px
q3
q2
Initial design
flood
qx =(1-px)
...
q0 =1-p0
time (years)
1
2
∞
3
x
𝒙
𝑻=𝑬 𝑿 =𝟏+
(𝟏 − 𝒑𝒕 )
𝒙=𝟏 𝒕=𝟏
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
5
Research publications
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Potential Impacts on Water Resources
Management in South Florida
Water Management
Impacts
Climate Change Drivers
Natural Cycles
Inter-annual
(e.g. El Nino and La
Nina) to
Multi-decadal
(e.g. AMO*)
Solar, Volcanos
Human Induced
Land use changes
Greenhouse gases
Quartet of change:
Stressors
•Rising Seas
•Temperature
•Direct landscape
impacts (e.g. storm
surge)
•Water Supply
(e.g., saltwater
intrusion)
•Rainfall (both
average &
extremes)
• Flood Control
(e.g. urban flooding)
•Tropical Storms &
Hurricanes
•Natural Systems
(e.g. ecosystem
impacts, both
coastal and interior)
*Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation of temperature in the Atlantic Ocean
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
31
Validation Data
Marianna
Jay
Quincy
Monticello
30
Live Oak
Carrabelle
fly
25
26
27
28
29
1 Alachua
2 Apopka
3 Arcadia
4 Avalon
5 Balm
6 Belle Glade
7 Bronson
8 Brooksville
9 Carrabelle
10 Citra
11 Clewiston
12 Dover
13 Fort Lauderdale
14 Frostproof
15 Fort Pierce
16 Hastings
17 Homestead
18 Immokalee
19 Indian River
20 Jay
21 Kenansville
22 Lake Alfred
23 Live Oak
24 Macclenny
25 Marianna
26 Monticello
27 North Port
28 Ocklawaha
29 Okahumpka
30 Ona
31 Palmdale
32 Pierson
33 Putnam Hall
34 Quincy
35 Sebring
36 Umatilla
Macclenny
Alachua
Putnam Hall
Hastings
BronsonCitra
Pierson
Ocklawaha
Umatilla
Okahumpka
Apopka
Brooksville
Avalon
COAPS
Lake Alfred
Dover
Kenansville
Balm
Frostproof
Indian River
Fort Pierce
Sebring
Ona
Arcadia
North Port
Palmdale
Clewiston
Belle Glade
Immokalee
Fort Lauderdale
FAWN
Homestead
PRISM
-86
-84
-82
-80
flx
43
7
64
26
31
6668
39
32
59
65
38
60
62
24
33
27
5158
8
6
41
53
49
34
56
9
54
15
3
1 WEST PALM BEACH INTERNA
2 DAYTONA BEACH INTL AP
3 INGLIS 3 E
4 SAINT LEO
5 VENUS
6 DOWLING PARK 1 W
7 PENSACOLA REGIONAL AP
8 JACKSONVILLE INTL AP
9 MARINELAND
10 MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AP
11 ST PETERSBURG
12 MELBOURNE WFO
13 MOORE HAVEN LOCK 1
14 TAMIAMI TRAIL 40 MI BEN
15 LYNNE
16 ORTONA LOCK 2
17 PARRISH
18 PORT MAYACA S L CANAL
19 ST LUCIE NEW LOCK 1
20 LAKELAND
21 PENNSUCO 5 WNW
22 CLEWISTON
23 CANAL POINT GATE 5
24 FOLKSTON GA
25 KEY WEST INTL AP
26 NICEVILLE
27 TALLAHASSEE WSO AP
28 BELLE GLADE HRCN GT 4
29 LISBON
30 NORTH NEW RVR CANAL 2
31 GRACEVILLE 1 SW
32 BRISTOL
33 FARGO GA
34 APALACHICOLA AIRPORT
35 VENICE
36 BOCA RATON
37 FORT MYERS PAGE FIELD A
38 COOLIDGE GA
39 WOODRUFF DAM
40 MIAMI WSO CITY
41 RAIFORD STATE PRISON
42 VERO BEACH 4 SE
43 BLACKMAN
44 BROOKSVILLE 7 SSW
45 ORLANDO INTL AP
46 ORLANDO WSO AIRPORT
47 LIGNUMVITAE KEY
48 LOXAHATCHEE
49 GRADY
50 OKEECHOBEE
51 LAMONT 6 WNW
52 ORANGE CITY
53 BRANFORD
54 GAINESVILLE 3 WSW
55 BROOKSVILLE CHIN HILL
56 CROSS CITY 2 WNW
57 KISSIMMEE 2
58 MONTICELLO 5 SE
59 PANAMA CITY 5 N
60 BAINBRIDGE GA
61 TAMIAMI CANAL
62 BAINBRIDGE GA INTL PAPER
63 VERO BEACH MUNI ARPT
64 PENSACOLA WB CITY
65 PANAMA CITY 2
66 VERNON
67 NORTH NEW RIVER CANAL 1
68 WAUSAU
29
55
44
4
2
52
46
45
57
50
20
11
USGS
12
63
42
17
5
35
37
19
18
16 1322 23
28
481
67
36
30
14
USGS map
21
6110
40
47
25
UCF - extremes
SFWMD
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Natural Variability (Teleconnections)
Rainfallvs.
patterns
Rainfall
El Nino & La Nina
Tropical storm patterns
Kwon, Lall, and Obeysekera
(2008)
Lake Okeechobee
Inflow
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
South Florida Water
Management Model








10
Integrated surface water
groundwater model
Regional-scale 2 mi x 2mi
grid, daily time step
Major components of
hydrologic cycle
Overland and groundwater
flow, seepage
Operations of C&SF system
Water shortage policies
Agricultural demands
simulated
Provides input and
boundary conditions for
other models
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Regional Modeling Approach
SFWMM Model
Scenario
• Climatic Input
Model
Output
• Daily time
– Rainfall
– ET
series of
water levels,
flows
• Demands not
met
•Boundary
Conditions
• Land Use/Land Cover
• Water Demands
• Operating Criteria
Performance
Measures
(Ag, Env, Urban)
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Using Climate Change Information
General
Circulation Models
(GCMs)
Observed Climate
Data
Is there evidence
that climate is
changing in
Florida?
Simulation of Late
20th Century
21st Century
Climate
Projections
Downscale (Statistical & Dynamical) global
information to regional information
How well are south
Florida’s climate and
teleconnections
represented by climate
models?
How do climate
projections affect
water resources
management?
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Book of Climate Output
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Historical Trends in Florida
Temperature and Precipitation
Variable
Daily
temperature
Averages
Average
temperature
Number of
hot days
Total
precipitation
Precipitation
Number of
wet days
Extremes
(by season)
• Number of days of extreme
values (above 2-year return
period)
• Maximum and minimum
seasonal values
• Number of extreme events of
duration 2, 3, 5, and 7 days
• Number of days of extreme
values (above 2-yr return
period)
• Highest seasonal value
• Number of heavy precipitation
events of duration 2, 3, 5, and
7 days
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Florida - Main Observations
  number of wet days during the dry season –
POR
  May precipitation throughout the state –
POR and especially post-1950. May be linked
to changes in start of the wet season.
 Urban heat island effect – urban (and drained)
areas
  Tave and  number of dog days for wet
(warm) season especially post-1950
 Decrease in DTR ( Tmin >  Tmax)
  Annual maximum of Tave and Tmin for all
seasons in POR and especially post-1950
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
GCM Resolution in Florida
Uncertainties in GCM predictions due to:
 Poor resolution – South Florida not even modeled in some GCMs; greater errors at
smaller scales
 From IPCC AR4-WG1, Ch. 8 - Simulation of tropical precipitation, ENSO, clouds and
their response to climate change, etc.
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Climate Projection Uncertainties
Ice Sheet Dynamics
Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
Dynamical

BCM2
CGHR
CGMR
CNCM3
CSMK3
ECHOG
FGOALS
GFCM20
GFCM21
GIAOM
INCM3
IPCM4
MIHR
MIMR
MPEH5
NCCCSM
NCPCM
Scenarios
Statistical
Constructed Analogues (CA)
Bias Correction and Spatial
Downscaling (BCSD)
Weather Generators
GCM
(IPCC,
2007)


General Circulation Model
Internal Variability
Downscaling
B1
A1T
B2
1.1-2.9
(○C)
0.18-0.38
(m)
1.4-3.8
(○C)
0.20-0.45
(m)
1.4-3.8
(○C)
0.20-0.43
(m)
A1B
A2
1.7-4.4
2.0-5.4
(○C)
(○C)
0.21-0.48 0.23-0.51
(m)
(m)
A1FI
2.4-6.4
(○C)
0.26- 0.59
(m)
Climate Change
Implications in Water
Resources Investigations:
 Scenario based approaches
 Use all models
 Model Culling?
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
GCM Projections – Bayesian Approach
(Tebaldi et al., 2008)
 A Bayesian approach
at http://rcpm.ucar.edu
MODEL
 Reward models with respect to
BIAS (w.r.t. current climate)
and CONVERGENCE
(consensus on future
projections)
Likelihood:
 23 Models, SRES scenarios
Observed: X0 ~ N[μ, −λ0-1]
A2(high), A1B (midrange),
GCM (current): Xi ~ N[μ, −λi-1]
B1(low)
GCM(future): Yi ~ N[ν, −(θλi)-1]
Priors:
 Posterior distribution of
μ, ν ~ U(-∞,+ ∞ )
precipitation & temperature for
λi ~ Γ (a,b), θi ~ Γ (c,d)
each season & future decades
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Projected Temperature Change from
AOGCMs (for 2050) – Posterior Distribution
•The vertical bars correspond to the percentiles,
5% and 95% of the posterior
distributions of temperature change for b1,a1b,
and a2 scenarios (red, black and blue)
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Statistical Downscaling – Example (Bias
Correction-Spatial Disaggregation)
Gridded Observations 1/8 º
Observations 2º
BC
deg C
GCM 3.5º
CDF-Obs
Bias-Corrected
CDF-Model
Model
time
percentile
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Future Projections – Temperature &
Precipitation
ensemble mean
all models
Tº
P
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Change: Magnitude & Seasonality
Everglades
1.0
2.0
3.0
b1
A1b
A2
0.0
Change in Mean Annual Temp.
2041:2070 versus 1971:2000
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
%Change in Mean Annual Precip.
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Spatial Trends
Temperature
Precipitation
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Dynamical Downscaling
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
Acknowledgement:
NARCCAP is funded by the
National Science
Foundation (NSF), the
U.S. Department of
Energy (DoE), the
National Oceanic and
Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA),
and the U.S.
Environmental Protection
Agency Office of Research
and Development (EPA)."
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
NARCCAP Scenario & Model Suite
A2 Emissions Scenario
GFDL
Time slice
50 km
GFDL
Iowa State/
PNNL
HADCM3
CCSM
link to European
Prudence
1971-2000 current
MM5
CGCM3
Provide boundary conditions
CAM3
Time slice
50km
2040-2070 future
RegCM3
CRCM
HADRM3
RSM
WRF
UC Santa Cruz
ICTP
Quebec,
Ouranos
Hadley Centre
Scripps
NCAR/
PNNL
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Change
Temperature
NARCCAP
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Change
Precipitation
NARCCAP
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Changes in duration of “dog days” &
“freezing temperatures”
BCCA
Dog days – Mean Number of days average above 80º F
CGCM3-CRCM
Historical
Absolute Value
Change from
1970-1999
to 2040-2069
HADCM3-HRM3
Change from
1970-1999
to 2040-2069
Freezing – Mean Number of days minimum below 32º F
Absolute Value
Change from
1970-1999
to 2040-2069
Change from
1970-1999
to 2040-2069
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Can RCM be used to compute future ET?
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Model skill: Precipitation Extremes
(Rainfall Depth – Duration)
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Sea Level Rise
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Rising Seas – Historical Data
Pensacola
Wilmington
Charleston
Fort Pulaski
Mayport
St. Petersburg
Key West
 Relative Sea Level
(height above a local
datum) depends on:
• Global Mean Sea Level
• Regional Variability
• Vertical Land Movement
(uplift/subsidence)
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Unified SE FL Sea Level Rise Projection
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Projected range of sea level rise
(National Climate Assessment, 2013)
Draft report: http://ncadac.globalchange.gov
HYDROLOGIC
& ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Summary of Projections for 2060
Global Models
Statistically
Downscaled Data
Dynamically
Downscaled Data
Average
Temperature
1 to 1.5ºC
1 to 2ºC
1.8 to 2.1ºC
Precipitation
-10% to +10%
-5% to +5%
-3 to 2 inches
Variable
Sea Level Rise
1.5 feet
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Caveates: Spatio-Temporat Rainfall
Dataset
 Daily Rainfall (19652005)
 Spatially interpolated to
create a spatial dataset
for each day
 Future Rainfall
Scenarios?
• Simplified “Delta Method”
36
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Caveats: Reference Evapotranspiration (RET),
Demands, Boundary Inflows

 Demands (Agricultural areas):
• Ran AFSIRS using rainfall and ET scenarios
 Boundary Inflows
• Rainfall-Runoff relationships
37
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Modeling Scenarios
 2010 Baseline (demands and landuse corresponding to 2010 simulated
with the 1965-2005 rainfall & ET (BASE)
 2010 Baseline with 10% decrease in rainfall (decRF)
 2010 Baseline with 10% increase in rainfall (incRF)
 2010 Baseline with 1.5° Celsius increase and 1.5 foot sea level rise
with increased coastal canal levels (incET)
 2010 Baseline with 10% decrease in rainfall, 1.5° Celsius increase and
1.5 foot sea level rise with increased coastal canal levels
(decRFincET)
 2010 Baseline with 10% decrease in rainfall, 1.5° Celsius increase and
1.5 foot sea level rise with no increased coastal canal levels
(decRFincETnoC)
 2010 Baseline with 10% increase in rainfall, 1.5° Celsius increase and
1.5 foot sea level rise with increased coastal canal levels (incRFincET)
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Hydrologic Performance Measures
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
DecRFincET versus
IncRFincET
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Summary
 Resolution of GCMs is not adequate to capture
hydro-meteorology of Florida peninsula
 Skills of models for regional climate information
may not be adequate, yet. More work is need to
verify and improve the methods/models.
 Need to work together on a “unified set of climate
scenarios” for Florida.
 Regional modeling Scenario runs made using a
very simplified “delta method” may be useful for
engaging professionals in various disciplines
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
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HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Questions?
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
47
Potential ET change
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Percent Change in Demand and Runoff
(K ac-ft)
Type
decRF decRF
BASE decRF incRF incET incET incETnoC
incRF
incET
Palm Beach County
Irrigation
209
3
-6
-2
1
1
-8
Broward County Irrigation
161
3
-6
2
5
5
-5
Miami-Dade County
Irrigation
231
4
-5
5
9
9
-1
EAA
309
20
-10
25
61
60
6
C-43 Demand
107
15
-14
14
31
31
-1
C-43 Runoff
713
-27
28
-11
-36
-36
17
24
21
-16
21
47
47
2
166
-26
28
-12
-36
-36
15
C-44 Demand
C-44 Runoff
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Changes to boundary flows (Kissimmee
Basin Example)
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Geographical Subregions and Transects
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Percent Change in Lake Okeechobee
Inflows
Lake Okeechobee Inflows
60.0
Change (%)
40.0
20.0
0.0
-20.0
-40.0
-60.0
Rainfall
+RF+ET
-RF+ET
-RF+ETnoC
10.0
-10.0
-10.0
Kissimmee
_Inflows
3.9
-48.5
-48.5
Eaa_Back_
Pumping
40.4
-50.6
-50.2
UpIstokp_
Inflows
1.3
-19.2
-19.2
Other_Infl
ows
8.3
-37.6
-37.6
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Percent Change in Lake Okeechobee
Outflows
Change (%)
Lake Okeechobee Outflows
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
-20.0
-40.0
-60.0
-80.0
-100.0
-120.0
Calo Regu Wate
Calo
os_E lator r_Su
os_A
ET
stuar y_to pp_t
g_D
y_Mi _Wc o_EA
mds
n
as
A
6.7
6.2
0.8
1.9 -1.9 -6.2 0.2
5.4
-4.0 -93.1 -11.5 -90.4 -16.5 -78.5 -37.5 -26.1
-3.9 -92.6 -10.8 -90.1 -16.0 -77.1 -37.8 -24.8
StLuc
ie_R
egula
tory
+RF+ET
-RF+ET
-RF+ETnoC
StLuc
ie_A
g_D
mds
Calo
os_R
egula
tory
Wate
r_Su
pp_t
o_LE
C
-25.3
53.4
14.3
L8_B
Reg_
asin_
L8_Ti
Ag_D
de
mds
-3.1 -10.7
-84.0 -66.6
-83.6 -65.1
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
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HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Transect Flows (% change)
Scenario
Base (total, K ac-ft)
decRF (%delta)
incRF (%delta)
incET (%delta)
decRFincET (%delta)
decRFincETnoC
(%delta)
incRFincET (%delta)
1
74
-18
15
-9
-31
2
299
-37
40
-19
-56
4
92
-26
10
-12
-49
5
245
-27
25
-17
-44
6
68
-38
43
-22
-57
7
477
-36
36
-22
-56
8
507
-28
14
-15
-56
10
77
-35
5
-13
-51
12
824
-40
30
-22
-67
15
168
-54
15
-27
-83
16
-153
-27
19
-13
-56
-31
4
-56
19
-49
4
-44
11
-57
19
-56
17
-54
6
-51
10
-65
13
-81
12
-56
8
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Transect Flows (cont.)
Scenario
Base (total)
decRF (%delta)
incRF (%delta)
incET (%delta)
decRFincET
(%delta)
decRFincETnoC
(%delta)
incRFincET (%delta)
17
692
-55
73
-33
18
19
20
131 -117
7
-7 -24 329
-7
19 -514
-8 -15 186
21
675
-51
62
-28
22
133
-63
96
-39
2323a 23b 23c
154
19
67
68
-44 -42 -46 -43
51
58
55
46
-21 -116 -16
0
27
730
-53
65
-32
-74
-63
-43
243
-69
-82
-64 -142
-61
-46
-67
-73
31
-23
-7
-40 286
8 -129
-68
30
-80
40
-67 -142
25 -89
-61
37
-51
44
-72
27
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
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HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Rainfall Deviations
from Mean of 133 cm
Orland
o
40
30
20
Ft. Pierce
cm
10
0
-10
-20
-30
65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95
Nov
Oct
Jul
Apr
Wet
Dec
5
Mar
10
Feb
Miami
May
Dry
15
Jan
100
120
140
160
cm
Mean Annual
Rain (cm)
20
Sep
Naples
Aug
25
Monthly
Distribution
Jun
West
Palm
Beach
0
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Return Period – nonstationary case
 Return Period is defined as the “expected
time for the first exceedance” (expected
waiting time)
∞
𝒙−𝟏
∞
𝑻=𝑬𝑿 =
𝒙𝒇(𝒙) =
𝒙=𝟏
𝒙𝒑𝒙
𝒙=𝟏
(𝟏 − 𝒑𝒕 )
𝒕=𝟏
 Coley (2013) provides a nice simplification:
∞
𝒙
𝑻=𝑬 𝑿 =𝟏+
(𝟏 − 𝒑𝒕 )
𝒙=𝟏 𝒕=𝟏
72
Return Period Change Under NonStationarity
Key West
Adak
Performance Measure Sets
 Available in
ftp://ftp.sfwmd.gov/pub/jabarne/climate/
 BASE, incRF, incET, incRFincET
 BASE, incRFincET, decRFincET,
decRFincETnoC
 BASE, decRFincET,
decRFincET,decRFincETnoC
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Simulation of Daily Rainfall with Inter-annual &
Multi-Decadal Climate Cycles (Hyun-Han Kwon, Upmanu Lall,
and Jayantha Obeysekera (2008)
x 104
Historical Series
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Tree-Ring Based Reconstruction of Streamflow
Observation of Streamflow
Reconstructed
Series
Streamflow(MCM)
x 104
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1500
1500
0.5
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
Time(year)
Tree-Ring Based Reconstruction of Streamflow
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
Time(year)
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Wavelet Reconstructed Components
Wavelet
Decomposition
0
-0.5
ARMA Simulation
on Wavelet
Component
1500
1550
1600
1650
4
Uncertainty Bound
Simulated Value
1700
Time(year)
1750
Observation
2
0
-2
-4
1500
1600
1700
Time(year)
Simulation of Daily
Rainfall Using
NHMM
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
1800
1900
Daily Scale
2000
Current Water Management
In Urbanized Areas
Primary Canal
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Swale
Increased Canal Levels
Impacts Flood Protection
Swale
Primary Canal
* Increasing Canal Levels to counter saltwater intrusion may impact
flood protection due to increased groundwater levels
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING