Transcript CTP Mentoring Project - American Meteorological Society

AMS Corporate Forum
Session 6: Weather, Climate and Water Resources
22-23 March 2007, Washington DC
Anticipating Extreme
Hydrologic Events
…how real-time data empowers
communities and individuals to
survive and recover from disasters
Kevin G. Stewart, P.E.
President, National Hydrologic Warning Council
Manager, Information Services and Flood Warning Program
Urban Drainage and Flood Control District
Denver, Colorado
Extreme Hydrologic Events
Dam Failure
Katrina
Big Thompson
Central Valley Levees
Tsunami
Opportunities to
address needs
Katrina caused
many communities
to ask what their
“worst case” natural
disaster might look
like and how they
could best prepare
for such an event.
Hurricane Katrina Storm Surge
Boulder
Colorado
Private
Meteorologist
Local
Investment
Flood Prediction Center
Real-Time Hydrologic Data
ALERT
Rain Gage
ALERT
rain/stream gage
Satellite-linked
USGS stream
gage
Automated
weather
station
Not too interesting for
most people…
…until people like you make
products like these…
…and these.
Empowered to develop plans
to warn proactively…
 The drainage basin
 descriptions, facilities, hydrology, flood history,
problem areas,
flood routing/timing
 Decision aids
 ALERT system, flash flood guidance,
inundation areas
 Communications
 Meteorological support
 National Weather Service
 Private Meteorologist
 Flood threat recognition and warning
process
 Procedures and general responsibilities
 Public dissemination
 Media contacts
 Annual revisions and practices
…and practice those plans.
Empowered to Integrate
Real-time
synchronization of
surface rainfall
measurements,
radar imagery and
storm track
forecasting model
Opportunities to Educate
Opportunities to Share
nhwc.udfcd.org
National Hydrologic Warning Council
June 11-14, 2007
Opportunities to help a
neighbor
Empowered to improve
communications
Empower people to protect
themselves
When if comes to determining
wise use of limited resources…
…do not underestimate the
value of the mundane.
AMS Statement on
Climate Change
Final remarks
Despite the uncertainties noted above, there is adequate evidence from observations and
interpretations of climate simulations to conclude that the atmosphere, ocean, and land
surface are warming; that humans have significantly contributed to this change; and that
further climate change will continue to have important impacts on human societies, on
economies, on ecosystems, and on wildlife through the 21st century and beyond. Focusing
on the next 30 years, convergence among emission scenarios and model results suggest
strongly that increasing air temperatures will reduce snowpack, shift snowmelt timing,
reduce crop production and rangeland fertility, and cause continued melting of the ice caps
Important goals for future work include the need
to understand the relation of climate at the state and regional
level to the patterns of global climate and to reverse the decline
in observational networks that are so critical to accurate climate
monitoring and prediction.
and sea level rise.
Policy choices in the near future will determine the extent of the impacts of climate change.
Policy decisions are seldom made in a context of absolute certainty. Some continued climate
change is inevitable, and the policy debate should also consider the best ways to adapt to
climate change. Prudence dictates extreme care in managing our relationship with the only
planet known to be capable of sustaining human life.