Transcript An observatory approach to enable ecological forecasting: The role

AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE
ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING:
THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL
OBSERVATORY NETWORK
Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON)
Director Strategic Projects | CEO Office
lots and lots of data…
10/2009
3/2010
7/2011
9/2008
2/2011
7/2014
2
Data as a National Resource
NSF Director Suresh’s emphasis on:
• “Era of Observations”
• “Era of Data and Information”
March 2012: White House $200M “Big
Data” initiative:
• NSF
• NIH
• DOE
• DOD
• DARPA
• USGS
3
Global themes – Global Solutions
Increasing importance on designing new x-discipline data
structures to support policy/decision-making
Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs)
Agriculture Biodiversity Climate
Disasters
Ecosystems
Energy
Health
Water
Weather
Grand Challenge for Environmental Sciences
Questions of societal importance within and among these SBAs
Understanding Earth System requires information integration
Broad Adoption and Evolution of Cultures
4
OUTLINE
NEON Grand Challenges
Overview Design and Design Process of NEON
Ecological Forecasting
Interoperability and International Efforts
NEON Institutional Structure
5
Grand Challenge areas
1. Biodiversity
2. Biogeochemical cycles
3. Climate change
4. Ecohydrology
5. Infectious disease
6. Invasive species
7. Land use
NRC. 2003. NEON: Addressing the Nation’s
Environmental Challenges. Washington DC:
National Academies Press.
NRC (National Research Council). 2001. Grand
Challenges in Environmental Sciences.
Washington DC: National Academies Press.
6
Grand Challenge areas
How will ecosystems [of the United States] and their
components respond to changes in natural- and humaninduced forcings such as climate, land use, and invasive
species across a range of spatial and temporal scales?
And, what is the pace and pattern of the responses?
How do the internal responses and feedbacks of
biogeochemistry, biodiversity, hydroecology and biotic
structure and function interact with changes in climate,
land use, and invasive species? And, how do these
feedbacks vary with ecological context and spatial and
temporal scales?
7
Grand Challenge areas
The goal of NEON is to enable understanding and forecasting of
the impacts of climate change, land use change and invasive
species on continental-scale ecology by providing infrastructure to
support research, education and environmental management in
these areas.
Forcing
Interactions
Feedbacks
Abiotic drivers of
ecological and
biological
change.
Processes mediating the
response of ecological
systems, feedbacks
influencing the drivers
Responses
Ecological and
organismal responses.
Biotic processes
8
Balancing Scientific Creativity with Baseline
measurements
Scientist’s Approach to Project Science
Questions
Move on to the
next thing
Grant
•
Hypotheses testing: ‘what can we do?’
•
Rationale for long term observations
•
Capabilities-based (network development)
•
Additional organizational complexity is
often layered
Pro
Co
n
✔
Publications
Exp Design
Analyses
✔
Scientific creativity
✕
Comfort-level for scientists and
bottom-up approaches
✕
Complexity becomes openended problem
✕
Governance is often difficult,
and not extensible
✕
Difficult planning for Program
Officers/Sponsors
✕
Problematic for long term
sustainability
Construction
Data Collection
9
NEON’s Scientific / System Engineering Approach
R
E
Q
U
I
R
E
M
E
N
T
S
Grand Challenge Science Questions
Environmental Science Questions
(Hypothesis Based Questions)
Identify Needed Information
(What are the Data Products?)
Science Requirements
(Science Sub-System Requirements)
Technical and Design Requirements
(e.g., for Engineering, CyberInfrastructure)
I
N
F
O
R
M
A
T
I
O
N
Raw Data Collection
10
Balancing Scientific Creativity with Baseline
measurements
Systems Engineering Approach
Questions
(scientists)
Publications
(scientists)
Grant (scientists)
Analyses
(scientists)
Exp Design
(scientists)
Data Collection
(Engineering
Construction
(Engineering,
Permitting)
•
Formalized hierarchical requirements
•
Asks ‘what must be done?’
•
Measurements are considered baseline
•
Steps are parsed out (see diagram)
Pro
Co
n
✔
New roles for scientists, both
internally and externally
✔
Clearly defines scope,
budget, schedule, risks
✔
Complexity is inherently
planned for
✔
Develops planning horizons for
Program Officers/Sponsors
✔
Fosters long term sustainability
✔
Requirement approach does
not necessarily impose a single
unique solution
✕
11
Scientist Roles
•
•
•
•
•
•
Capabilities based
(networks)
“What can we do?”
PI driven – grant structure
Strong scientific creativity
Deliverable ‘themes’
Discovery/experiments
Open ended
•
•
•
•
•
Examples
LTER + iLTER
AmeriFlux – Fluxnet
BASIN
CZO
Carbo-Europe
•
•
•
•
•
•
Requirements based
(infrastructure)
What must be done?”
Community engagement
Mature baseline science
Well defined deliverables
Science sustainment
Manage costs/risk/scope
•
•
•
•
•
Examples
NSF Observatories
DOE ARM
NOAA US CRN
LHC at CERN
[NASA] Satellites
12
NEON site design
13
NEON Domain themes
Agriculture
Climate
Forest systems
Invasion biology
Urban ecology
Aquatic
14
NEON Science Sub systems (alphabet soup)
FSU
Fundamental Sentinel Unit
FIU
Fundamental Instrument Unit
AOP
Airborne Observation
Package
Aircraft Remote Sensing
AQU
Aquatic/STREON
Human Obs/automated
instrumentation
DPS
Data Products
LUAP
Land Use Analysis Package
Human Obs. Bioarchive
Automated
Instrumentation
Community-vetted
ensembled DPs and
Models
Satellite Remote Sensing +
15
Fundamental Sentinel Unit
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Biodiversity
Population Dynamics
Productivity
Phenology
Infectious Disease
Biogeochemistry
Microbial Diversity and Function
Ecohydrology
• **Sentinel Species**
16
Fundamental Sentinel Unit
Microbes
Mosquitoes
Aquatic Invertebrates
Beetles
Small Mammals
Generation Time
Fish
Birds
Plants
17
Generalized Terrestrial Sampling Scheme
18
Fundamental Instrument Unit
19
Instrumented measurements
•
•
•
•
•
•
Temperature
Moisture
Heath flux
Raditation
CO2
Root growth and phenology
Fundamental Instrument Unit
• Physical and chemical climate
forcing
• Ecosystem responses
• Stand/plot level sampling
• Automated instrumentation
• Micrometeorological scalars and
fluxes
• Soil array
• Over 2000 measurements per
core site at frequencies of
• Daily, and ~0.1 to 20 Hz
• Total 50 Tb y-1
21
Airborne Observing Platform (AOP)
 Three airborne remote sensing
payloads:
– Waveform-LiDAR altimeter
– Imaging spectrometer
– High-resolution digital
camera
– GPS-Inertial measurement
unit
 Leased Twin Otter aircraft
 Instrumentation maintenance
and calibration facility
 Science and flight operations
22
Airborne Observing Platform
Waveform Light Detection and Ranging
What are we after?
• Detailed chemical, structural and
taxonomic information on ecosystems at
fine spatial resolution
+
High-fidelity Imaging Spectroscopy
• Sampling at the scale of individual
organisms (~<0.5m) over 400 sq. km
around NEON sites
• Bridge the scales from organisms (i.e.,
trees or shrubs) as captured by plot
sampling, to stand scale observations as
measured from flux towers, to the scale of
satellite based remote sensing
23
Combined AIS / STREON Reach
STREON Reach
Aquatic Reach
In-Stream
Sensor Mount
S1
Stream flow
direction
Groundwater Well
STREO
N
Baskets
S2
STR S1
STR S2
Junction
Box
Met Station
2nd - Nutrient
Addition System
if reach is longer
than 200m
Nutrient
Addition
System
PORTAL
STREO
N
Baskets
PORTAL
24
Scaling Strategy
25
I would be remiss…..






Data Portal (http://data.neoninc.org) - all data open and free
Large suites of Data Products (www.neoninc.org/science/data)
Education and Outreach Program
State-of-the-Art Calibration and Validation Lab
National and International Development
20 Field Labs across the US
 Assignable Assets
 Calibration and Validation Service
 New data products
 Additional Instrumentation
 Mobile Instrument Platforms
 Third Airborne Platform
 etc
26
Ecological Observatory
The overarching goal of NEON is to enable
understanding and forecasting of climate change, land
use change, and invasive species on continental-scale
ecology by providing infrastructure to support research
in these areas.
• Information infrastructure: Consistent, continental, long-term,
multi-scaled data-sets and data products that serve as a context for
research and education.
• Physical Infrastructure: A research platform for investigatorinitiated sensors, observations, and experiments providing physical
infrastructure, cyberinfrastructure, human resources, and expertise,
and program management and coordination.
27
Ecological Observatory
The overarching goal of NEON is to enable
understanding and forecasting of climate change, land
use change, and invasive species on continental-scale
ecology by providing infrastructure to support research
in these areas.
• Cause and Effect Paradigm
• Scale in Time and Space
– (from 20 Hz to 30 y, and from microbe to continent)
• Provide the data to enable an Ecological Forecasting
28
Ecological Forecasting
 Aligned with establishing a baseline understanding now!!
 Casts the cause and effect paradigm of NEON into
understanding present and future states of ecosystems:
What is the most likely future state of an ecological
system?
Provides an applied context of ‘what-if’ given a
decision made today?
 Provides a conceptual framework that can be applied to all
elements in managing ecosystems: theory, exp design,
experiments, implementation, infrastructure, data products
29
Ecological Forecasting
30
How are ecological forecasting, experiments, and
observations related?
The need for observations of the starting point (now)
The need for quantitative information about specific
processes -- particularly non-linear and stochastic
processes (temperature sensitivity, susceptibility to
drought, tipping points…)
• Estimates of system state
• Information on process parameters
• Experiments/process studies to elucidate unknown
processes and non-linear responses
• Observations collected systematically over time and
space to challenge iterative forecasts
A paradigm for ecological research?
31
NEON, Inc. Update
Science Developments
• Data flows:
− Command, Control, Configuration
− Algorithm Theoretical Basis Documents
− Automated QA/QC
− Data product catalogs
• Sponsored Workshops
− Phenocam Network: Envisioning the future of near-surface remote sensing
− Isotope Ecology: Accelerating the integration of NEON data in isotope ecology
research
• Notable Meetings:
− American Geophysical Union
− Ecological Society of America
− Entomological Society of America
− Biodiversity Information Working Group
− Soil Science Society
32
Interoperability Framework
1. Aligning Science Questions and
Hypotheses, Requirements,
Mission Statements
• Mapping Questions to ‘what must be done’
• Defines Joint Science Scope / Knowledge Gaps
• define interfaces among respective
Infrastructures
2. Traceability of Measurements
• Use of Recognized Standards
• Traceability to Recognized Standards,
or First Principles
• Known and managed signal:noise
• Managing QA/QC
• Uncertainty budgets
3. Algorithms/Procedures
• What is the algorithm or procedural
process to create a data product?
• Provides “consistent and
compatible” data
• Managed through intercomparisons
• What are their relative uncertainties?
4. Informatics
•
•
•
•
Standards – Data / Metadata formats
Persistent Identifiers / Open-source
Discovery tools / Portals
Ontologies, semantics and controlled
vocabularies
Informatics
-- Building Block Approach
• Data / Metadata formats
• Discipline specific Data Formats
• ISO 19115 (29115) compliant
• EML
• Persistent Identifiers
•
•
•
•
Time series / sos
Attribution / Publications
Community Acceptance
Data Providence
• Data Policies
• Community acceptance
• Open-source
• Data Management
• Plans and accountability
• Archival Policy
• Data Sovereignty
• Intellectual Property Rights
• Ontologies, Semantics and
Controlled Vocabularies
• Discipline Specific
• e.g., BCO, OWL, PCO etc
• Individual / Institutional
• Discovery tools / Portals
• Ease of use
• Interoperable / Harmonized
Emergent bottom-up Networks
• EREN — Ecological Research as
Laurie Anderson
erenweb.org/
• FunDivEurope—Functional
Michael SchererLorenzen
www.fundiveurope.eu
• GLEON — Global Lake Ecological
Kathleen Weathers
www.gleon.org/
• iLTER — Long Term Ecological
Scott Collins
www.lternet.edu/
Education Network
Significance of Forest Biodiversity in
Europe (also Biodepth-Jena)
Observatory Network
Network
• Biosphere Atmosphere Stable Isotope Todd Dawson
basin.yolasite.com/
• NPN — USA-National Phenology
Elizabeth Wolkovich
www.usanpn.org
• USDA National Soil Carbon Network
Chris Swantson
www.fluxdata.org/nsc
n/SitePages/Home
• NTSG — Numerical Terradynamic
Bill Smith
www.ntsg.umt.edu/
• NutNet — Nutrient Network
• TraitNet — Trait Network (also
Eric Lind
Dan Bunker
www.nutnet.org/
traitnet.ecoinformatic
s.org
• ZEN — Zostera Ecological Network
Pamela Reynolds
zenscience.org/
Network
Network
Simulation Group
BioMERGE)
NEON Focused Interactions
European Union (18 member countries in ICOS)
Italy – Ecosystem Thematic Center
Finland – Governance and PM
Germany – Calibration and Validation
Norway – intercomparison
European Union (COOPEUS) - Lifewatch
Australia – TERN
France – EU ESFRI INRA ANAEE
Mexico and Canada – CarboNA + MexFlux
Korea – KEON + KoFlux + AsiaFlux
China – CERN
Abbreviated Institutional Structure – community
engagement for research infrastructure
STEAC
NEON Inc 501©3
Scientific
Community
Board of Directors
Other Resources
CEO
R+RA CA
National Science
Foundation
MREFC CA
MREFC CA
Observatory
Director
Assignable Assets
• Airborne Platform
• + Instrumentation
• MDP
• Biol. Samples/Plots
• Cal/Val
The NEON Observatory
Operations
Constrained activity
Project Manager
Project Scientist
COMMISSIONING
TRANSITION
Examples
• NEON Satellite Sites
• Interoperability
• New Experiments
• New Infrastructure
• International
• Training Activities
NEON Inc
Development Activities
Open-ended activity
COLLABORATIVE
Strategic Projects
Director
PROCESS
R+RA CA
Science Systems
designed with limited
community interface
• Workshops
• Working groups
The NEON Project
Construction
Constrained activity
The National Ecological Observatory Network is a project sponsored by the National
Science Foundation and managed under cooperative agreement by NEON Inc.