Transcript Overview of HVCP project

High-resolution Climate Projections for
Vietnam: Facilitating effective climate adaptation
Dr Jack Katzfey
CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP
December 2012
Project aims
• Improve Vietnam's understanding of climate change
• Integrate past and current research for a more complete
assessment of the potential effects of climate change
• Provide information necessary for appropriate planning and
investment to adapt to climate change
• Develop innovative communication tools to ensure that the data
generated is widely accessible
• Capacity building
• Develop collaboration
Approach/Plan
Providing an evidence base for planning for Climate change
1. Collaborate with IMHEN and HUS to increase technical skills and
strengthen capacity to develop climate change scenarios
2. Incorporate the latest global climate model information
3. Use a number of different regional climate models to help capture
the range of factors that contribute to climate change and its
impacts at high resolution
4. Build on existing research and analysis
5. Promote a comprehensive approach that can be applied
consistently to avoid duplication of future effort
Project components
Component 1: Observations/analyses/drivers
Component 2: Dynamical downscaling
Component 3: Analysis of climate projections
Component 4: Regional sea-level projection
Component 5: Assessing response options from climate change
projections
Component 6: Communication and management
Project outcomes
• Capture and analysis of existing data in order to better understand
the current climate and its trends
• Completion of high-resolution dynamical downscaled projections
for a range of scenarios and methods
• Analysis of the implications of the results for the various regions of
Vietnam
• Building the capacity of Vietnam to analyse, understand and
complete future climate change projection
• Communication of the results to key stakeholders in order that the
results are used in adaptation planning
To provide updated climate change
projections for Vietnam
To provide basic information assessing CC impacts and
to develop action plans for responding to CC
Method
• Dynamical downscaling
Tm
Tx
6
Component 1:
Observations/analyses/drivers
• Collect and analyze station observations for current observed
trends
• Create gridded downscaled analyses
• Determine key climate drivers for Vietnam
–Monsoon
–Tropical Cyclones
–El Nino
Observed trends in temperature and
rainfall
T2m trend
Pre trend
24N
24N
22N
22N
deg.C/10yr
0.55
20N
%/year
1.1
20N
0.45
0.35
18N
0.9
0.7
18N
0.25
0.15
16N
0.5
0.3
16N
0.05
−0.05
14N
0.1
−0.1
14N
−0.15
−0.25
12N
−0.3
−0.5
12N
−0.35
−0.45
10N
−0.7
−0.9
10N
−0.55
8N
102E
104E
106E
108E
110E
112E
−1.1
8N
102E
104E
106E
108E
110E
112E
Trends in East Sea surface temperatures
and tropical storms
10
8
6
TC0_Anom_ANN
y = 0.0609x - 120.38
R² = 0.1659
SCS_SSTA_ANN_x5
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
Inter-annual variability of TC0 anomaly and SSTA - Annual
2005
Component 2:
Dynamical Downscaling
• Select six CMIP5 global climate models to downscale for two
representation concentration pathways (4.5: low and 8.5: high)
• CSIRO will run the stretched-grid, Conformal Cubic Atmospheric
Model at about 10 km resolution over Vietnam
• HUS will run two regional climate models (WRF and RegCM) over
Vietnam at 20 km
• IMHEN will compare new results with previous studies
• Access and use other downscaled data as available
Recent news
The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C, 2012, Glen P. Peters, Robbie
M. Andrew, Tom Boden, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Corinne Le Quéré,
Gregg Marland, Michael R. Raupach and Charlie Wilson, Nature Climate Change
Annual cycle of precipitation
(previous run by IMHEN)
20
R1
Precipitation (mm/day)
Precipitation (mm/day)
20
16
12
8
4
0
16
R4
- Double-peaks
- Peak magnitude ~ 40%
12
8
4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11 12
1
2
3
4
5
6
Month
16
12
8
9
10
11
12
Month
R7
The model also can capture the
seasonal cycle of precipitation
well
Precipitation (mm/day)
Precipitation (mm/day)
20
7
8
4
0
20
The whole of Vietnam
Tend to be wetter
than OBS during
Feb-Aug
STN
APH
CRU
ERA-interim
16
12
8
4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month
8
9
10
11 12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month
8
9
10
11
12
Variability of JJA rainfall (IMHEN)
JJA
APH
3
CRU
ERA-INT
Precip (mm/day)
2
1
0
annual rainfall anomaly
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
-1
-2
-3
Year
2002
2004
2006
2008
The PRECIS model
provides a reasonable
simulation of IAV of
precipitation compared
to observed data
Number of CMIP5 global models agreeing on future rainfall change
(RCP8.5 – high, end of century)
First Intermonsoon
Southwest monsoon
Second Intermonsoon
Northeast monsoon
Annual
Decrease
Increase
Downscaling
• Global climate model (GCM) projections
• 6 GCMs and 2 RCPs (4.5, 8.5)
• Driven by sea surface temperatures (SST) only
GCM SST
CCAM 50 km
CCAM 10 km
Vietnam and orography
Orography at 10 km resolution
SUMMER MONSOON
MEAN RAINFALL
April to September
High rainfall on the
windward side and less
rain on the lee ward
side (rain shadow)
Component 3:
Analysis of climate projections
• IMHEN will lead in analysis of climate projections from downscaled
simulations
• All will help analyze high-resolution projections and summarize in final
report and scientific journal articles
Focus on climate change projections for periods around 2050 and 2090:
– Changes in mean climate, seasonality and extreme events
– Ensembles of model simulations to assess the range of uncertainty
– Results to be included in final technical report and in relevant communications
• CSIRO will develop the Climate Futures Tool for Vietnam
– For 7 regions across Vietnam
– Incorporate CMIP5 global model data and downscaled data
– Communicate range of future projections
Tropical
depression
< 34 knots
CCAM
OBS
Keith
Linda
Climate Futures tool:
Managing Risk
Typical Climate Projections
Radiation:
1.1
(-1.2 to +1.8) %
Rainfall change:
2.3
(-15 to +10) %
-5 %
0
+5%
-20 %
0
+20 %
Radiation
Rainfall
Climate Futures Tool
Component 4:
Regional sea-level projection
• CSIRO will develop regional sea-level projections for Vietnam
• Sea-level rise will not be uniform due to changes in ocean
circulation, gravitational effects, glaciers, etc.
Sea-level rise will not be uniform
Updated regional projections
Greenland Fingerprint
Glacier and ice cap Fingerprint
Antarctic Fingerprint
Gomez et al. 2011
24
Component 5:
Building capacity & designing assessment needs
• 5.1 Training of IMHEN staff and other relevant agencies
–
–
–
–
Seminar 1: Why integrated assessment and what methods are available?
Seminar 2: Training in Agent-based modelling
Seminar 3: Hands-on tasks for model design & model analysis
Seminar 4: In-depth training of model design and model use
• 5.2 Participatory design
– What are the assessment needs of Vietnam’s coastal communities?
– Decision on methodology: Agent-based simulation & flood plan model
– Development of systems diagram
• 5.3 Data preparation
– Collate necessary data: GIS, soil, hydrology, households, economics…
Downscaled projection a key input for
assessing adaptation options
Downscaled
climate
projection
Methods & skills
Identify & assess
adaptation options
Sea-level rise
projection
Other hydrological
data
GIS
data
Social household
data
Economic
data
Building capacity & designing assessment
needs
…the impact of…
•Changes in sea-level, rainfall,
temperature, extreme events
•Weather monitoring /early warning
•Dykes/sluice gates, water treatment and
urban drainage,
•Resettlements,
•Crop &land use changes, deforestation
•Road upgrades
•Building code changes
•International water sharing & dam
operation agreements
•Awareness raising & new crop research
…on…
•Vulnerability, Sensitivity, Adaptive capacity, Risk
•Agricultural Production
•Hydrology
•Household Economics, wellbeing and poverty
•Population growth
•Food security. Nutrition
•Biodiversity, Environment, endangered species
•Gender equality
•Migration
•Public health, diseases,
•Livelihoods (incl. job changes)
•Freshwater access and salinity intrusion
Component 6:
Communication and management
• Activity 6.1: Dissemination of downscaled data (IMHEN, CSIRO)
– Data, images, documentation, reports and brochures downloadable from the
website
– Web-based delivery system of data
• Activity 6.2: Workshops
– July 2012 in Hanoi, Dec 2012 Melbourne and May/June 2013 – Launch in
Vietnam
• Activity 6.3: PhD Training
– IMHEN and HUS have each sent two students to Melbourne for two months
for training
Component 6:
Communication and management
• Activity 6.4: Training on downscaling and analyses
– As part of workshops
• Activity 6.5: Final report
– With nation-wide and regional summaries
• Activity 6.6: Scientific publications in international journals
– Publication and communication plan will be developed to coordinate outputs by
the research team
Component 6:
Communication and management
• Active engagement with Vietnam government representatives
• Explain project to stakeholders to maximise application of the
projections in local adaptation planning and action
• Develop and maintain effective links with contributing
researchers, including international and regional agencies
• Ensure sound collaboration between researchers participating
in the project
• Monitoring and evaluation plan
Component 6:
Communication and management
Headline Statement:
The Regional Projections will help Vietnam better understand the
likely change of climate throughout the country.
Improving the knowledge of climate change will help identify the
people and sectors at risk and, in doing so, will support Vietnam in
the challenging task of prioritizing its climate change response.
Funded by the Australian Government’s aid program, AusAID, the
project is delivered by Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation in collaboration with Vietnam Institute of
Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment and Hanoi University of
Science.
CSIRO
Jack Katzfey
Project Leader
Phone: +61 3 9239 4562
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.csiro.au/cmar
Thank you
Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176
Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au
CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP