Transcript Hans von Storch

Presentation of the newly published book
Clima şi Societatea
of Nico Stehr and Hans von Storch
Translation: Prof. Horaţiu Dragomirescu
Meteorological support: Dr. Aristiţa Busuioc
Graphics: Beate Gardeike
Todays Arrangement: Administratia Nationala de Meteorologie
and Societatea Meteorologică Română
Publisher: Ars Docendi, Bucharest
Financing of printing: Societatea Meteorologică Română
Bucharest, 8. December 2015
Nico Stehr
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Sociologist
Karl Mannheim Professor for Cultural
Studies,
Zeppelin University, Germany
2011- Fellow, European Academy of
Sciences and Arts
2002-2003 Paul-Lazarsfeld-Professor,
Universität Wien, Austria
1996; 1998 - Guest Scientist, Institute
for Hydrophysics, GKSS Research
Center, Geesthacht, Germany
1993, 1994 - Guest Scientist, MaxPlanck-Institut für Meteorologie,
Hamburg, Germany
1985- Fellow of the Royal Society
(Canada)
Hans von Storch
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Climate researcher (in the field since 1971)
Coastal science; statistical analysis
Cooperation with social and cultural
scientists since 1992
Active in IPCC as Lead Author
in AR3 (2001) and AR5 (2013).
Retired Director of the Institute of
Coastal Research of the Helmholtz
Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany
Professor at Universität Hamburg,
Meteorologcal Institute and Faculty of
Social and Economic Sciences
Guest-Professor at the Oean
University of China, Qingdao
Honorary doctorate of U Göteborg
“Climate and Society” …
• … was first published as “Klima,
Wetter, Mensch” in 1999 in Germany.
• translated to Chinese(Taiwan)
• Second edition in 2009 in German,
• then in English (2010), Slovenian
(2010), Russian (2011), Czechian
(2014), and now in Romanian (2015)
History of ideas
The history of ideas about climate began with
two elements, namely:
- climate as a determinator for human life
- description of all regional climates = global
climate
Climatic
determinism
Climatic energy
Level of civilization
Contemporary climatic Determinism:
Societal analysis is a mere extension
of geophysical analysis
Modern views, encompassing …
• a geophysical system’s view, and
• a recognition that climate may condition
societal dynamics, but
• societal factors in conditioning and shaping
developments are dominant
The climate system is mostly a
downscaling system,
with large-scale drivers (solar radiation,
air-sea distributions, mountain ranges,
composition of the atmosphere,
with various components (atmosphere,
ocean, cryosphere etc.).
Therefore c an we simulate
global (continental)) climate
in a skillful mannerThe problem of simulating
regional and local climate
can be solved by
downscaling.
Climate is a stochastic system.
Therefore specific trajectories of
development can not be predicted;
however, changes of the statsitics can
be given as a coonaequence of
changing drivers (such as greenhouse
gas concentrations)
Is science determining policy?
No
Politically “spun” myths are
• Any contemporary extreme event is explained as being
caused, or at least being strongly intensified by
anthropogenic climate change.
(But – cold waves, past experiences of storms etc. –
“detection and attribution” needed.)
• Societal conflict is an expression of climate change stress,
e.g., the civil war in Syria. (But, what about the English-French
Sykes-Picot “reorganization” of the Turkish empire; the USBritish attack on Irak?)
Not shown
Zeppelin Manifesto of 2009
Stehr & von Storch
1. Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is not an intermittent
phenomenon.
- It can not be controlled by short term (decadal) climate
policies.
- Reduction of emissions leads to reduction of growth of ACC,
but not to stabilization or reversal in the coming few
decades.
- Reaching a new equilibrium needs several decades if not
centuries (sea level).
Zeppelin Manifesto of 2009
Stehr & von Storch
2. Climate policy needs to pursue two goals, adaptation and
mitigation.
- such efforts are in most cases independent.
- both lines require technological innovations, which needs a
favourable social perception of technology and innovations.
Zeppelin Manifesto of 2009
Stehr & von Storch
3. Adaptation is useful and needed in any case. Also if …
- unexpected technological fixes “solve” the ACC problem.
- the concept of ACC is overblown.
- the reduction policy is very successful (reducing emissions by
many tens of percent within a few decades).
Zeppelin Manifesto of 2009
Stehr & von Storch
4. The presently ongoing change can not be avoided. It can
only insignificantly be curbed in the foreseeable future. Only
on longer terms emissions policies have the potential of
“solving the problem”.
A climate policy without a significant adaptation policy – to
deal with the unavoidable part of ACC – is irresponsible.
Example: “heat deaths” (e.g., 2003)
- was first of all a failure of adaptation (to a predictable risk)
- the concept was used as an excuse for risk management
failures by faulting “higher forces”
- cf., Nargis
Zeppelin Manifesto of 2009
Stehr & von Storch
5. Need for adaptation - 1
- presently installed measures to reduce the emission increase
will have a significant effect only in several decades.
- in the meantime ACC will further emerge.
- the time scale of political decisions and legitimization (short)
and of ACC (long) are fundamentally different.
- the political and social success of mitigation will be
“harvested” not by present political and social actors.
Zeppelin Manifesto of 2009
Stehr & von Storch
5. Need for adaptation – 2
-The present threat of climatic extremes – e.g., heat waves
(Europe 2003), storm surges (Katrina, Nargis) – is significant. +
was always significant (Hamburg 1962, Bhola 1970).
- Blaming ACC for such threats – such as TC Mitch in Central
America during the Rio de Janeiro summit in 1992 – means:
downplaying the significant fact of unpreparedness and
insufficiently managed vulnerability.
-The Third World demands support for reducing vulnerability,
which is to large extent: development.
Zeppelin Manifesto of 2009
Stehr & von Storch
6. Kyoto Protocol
- a top-down approach, limited to a subset of emittors.
- almost entirely directed towards emission control.
- direct effect very small, even if implemented successfully.
- promised goals will not be reached; GHG concentrations
show clear upward trend; no indication of a noteworthy
reduction of increase – mostly BAU.
- why should a successor of Kyoto be more successful?
- by some in the Third World seen as hegemonial tool of the
West.
Zeppelin Manifesto of 2009
Stehr & von Storch
7. Instituting adaptation is politically relatively easily feasible:
-Successes become visible on a time horizon comparable to the
multi-year political time scale.
- Adaptation measures may be combined with other specific
political goals. (Mitigation also.)
- Adaptation measures may be designed to be consistent with
local or regional political conditions.
Zeppelin Manifesto of 2009
Stehr & von Storch
8. Climate change impact depends strongly on the regional
(geographical, cultural) specifics.
- Adaptation measures may be conditioned on local needs,
options and culture.
- Technological “solutions” of local and regional problems are
less complex than restructuring energy industry and reeducate people in energy usage.
Zeppelin Manifesto of 2009
Stehr & von Storch
10. In the public, only efforts to limit emissions are considered
laudable.
- Most of these efforts on the personal level are of symbolic
nature, with no measurable effect on GHG emissions.
- Such symbolic acts tell the actors that they have contributed
their share to the solution of the problem, while they
practically have done nothing.
- Most of the efforts in the western countries are inefficient,
and often a tool of industry policy.