Transcript set of slides

Health Impacts of Climate Change
“ Climate Change is the biggest global health
threat of the 21st Century”
Lancet, 2009
Doctors for the Environment, Australia (DEA) is a voluntary, doctor’s
organisation, formed in 2001, with members in all States and Territories. The
aim of the organisation is to inform and educate the public, the medical
profession and policy makers about the relationships between health and the
environment. Our priority issue at the present time is the health effects of
climate change. DEA is a member of the International Society of Doctors for
the Environment.
Scientific committee:
Prof. Stephen Boyden AM
Prof. Peter Doherty AC
Prof. Bob Douglas AO
Prof. Frank Fenner AC
Prof. Michael Kidd AM
Prof. Steve Leeder AO
Prof. Ian Lowe AO
Prof. Tony Mc Michael
Prof. Peter Newman
Sir Gustav Nossal AC
Prof. Hugh Possingham
Prof. Lawrie Powell AC
Prof. Fiona Stanley AC
Norman Swan
Prof. David Yencken AO
Overview:
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Science of climate change
Health effects of climate change
Case for urgent action
Solutions
Climate Science 101
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The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
causes the trapping of heat from the sun hence a rise in the
temperature of the earth’s climate
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Greenhouse gases include CO2, water vapour, methane and
nitrous oxide
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The increase in temperature is proportional to the
concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
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CO2 concentration has increased from:
 Pre-industrial- 280ppm
 1958- 316ppm
 2008- 387ppm
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Average global temperature rise so far 0.76 deg C
The Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse gases
in atmosphere
Solar energy passes
through
Radiant
heat is trapped
Source: Williams DL. Global Warming: The Greatest Threat. Alaska
Conservation Solutions, 2006.
The Earth is Warming
Brohan 2006
 CO2 =  temperature
 The increase in
temperature is
proportional to the
increasing concentration
of CO2 in the
atmosphere
CO2 increase over time
IPCC 1990
Per capita emissions due to
electricity, 2005
Source: IEA; Department of Climate Change
Current impacts at 0.76 deg rise
 Arctic:
 The floating sea-ice is headed towards rapid
summer disintegration as early as 2013, a
century ahead of the IPCC projections
 “albedo flip” as described by James Hansen
(NASA) leads to a positive feedback loop as the
arctic sea warms
 Greenland ice sheet melt and thawing of
permafrost predicted for this century
Revkin, 2007
Hansen et al, 2007
Hansen, 2006
Westbrook et al, 2009
Ice-free summer as early as 2013?
Beck,A. 2007
Current impacts at 0.76 deg rise
Current impacts at 0.76 deg rise
 Victoria:
Hottest day ever recorded 7th Feb. 2009
Driest start to year for 150years 2009
Record 12 year low rainfall
Fire danger rating for Victoria on 7th Feb. 2009
ranged between 120-190 (previous record was
Black Saturday in 1939 of 100) where
100=catastrophic rating
 374 deaths from heat stress in first week of Feb.
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David Karoly. 16/2/09
January 2009 heatwave in Victoria report-Chief Health Officer, Victoria.
Water storages at lowest point ever
How Doctors assess risk and make
decisions: Scenario One
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Hx:25 yo male presents
with 24hr history of central
abdominal pain localizing to
RIF. Associated with
anorexia, nausea, fever
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Ex: T 37.5 deg C pr 120
rebound tenderness over
Mc Burney’s point
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Ix: high wcc & crp
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Dx: appendicitis
Scenario Two
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Hx: increasing frequency of
severe weather events,
changing patterns of plant
and animal behaviour
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Ex: loss of polar sea ice,
global glacial retreat, increase
in earth’s temperature, rising
sea levels and acidification of
ocean
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Ix: atmospheric CO2
increasing at rate proportional
to increase in earth’s
temperature
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Dx: climate change
Anthropogenic climate change
is now incontrovertible
Lancet
Comparison of risks
Provisional Dx
Diagnostic
Certainty
Risk of inaction
Risk of action
Scenario One
Scenario Two
Appendicitis
Climate Change
10-90%
>90%
Ruptured appendix
Death
Extinction of
human species
Operative risk for
incorrect Dx
???? ECONOMIC
Health effects of climate change
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Changing patterns of disease
Water and food insecurity
Vulnerable shelter and human settlements
Extreme climate events
Population migration
 These effects are both direct and indirect
Changing patterns of disease
 Vector borne disease
increases with temperature
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temperature is  vector
reproduction; parasite
development and bite
frequency
increase in malaria, tickborne encephalitis and
dengue fever
 Heatwaves increase death
due to heat stress
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ie. Europe summer 200370,000 deaths Lancet, 2009
Mosquito abundance increases
by a factor of 10 for every 0.1
deg C increase in temperature
Water and food insecurity
 Famine:
 Climate change is likely to compound existing food
insecurity
Food emergencies have increased from 15/year in
80’s to >30/year : UN World Food Program
 Corn and soybean yields in USA reduced by 17% for
every 1 deg C temp rise
 Drought:
 1/6 world population live in glacial fed water
catchments which are vulnerable to climate change
 increased water temp and reduced water flow lead to
reduced water quality
Lancet, 2009
Vulnerable Shelter and Human
Settlements
 Due to abandonment of flooded or arid land
 United Nations 2006 revision of population
predicts movement from climate affected lands
in developing countries to developed countries
to be 2.3 million every year after 2010
 Number of climate change related migrants
expected to be 100’s of millions by 2050
Extreme climate events
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Floods
 Related infectious diseases ie. cholera, dengue, malaria,
leptospirosis increased after hurricane in Nicuragua in 1998
 Reduction in water quality and sanitation
 Loss of property, farmlands, direct loss of life
 Psychological trauma
Cyclones and hurricanes
 Direct loss of life, property, farmlands
 Reduction in water quality and sanitation
 Psychological trauma
Bushfires
 Direct loss of life, property, farmlands
 Psychological trauma
Heatwaves
Psychological effects
 Direct
 Grief as reaction to
loss; PTSD
 Indirect
 Depression, anxiety
in the face of dire
predictions
Moral issues
 Climate change raises the moral issues of :
 Intergenerational justice
 Health equity
ie. those responsible for historical CO2 (rich) are
less likely to suffer than the poor
“ On a balance of probabilities, the failure of our
generation on climate change mitigation would
lead to consequences that would haunt
humanity until the end of time.” Garnaut, 2008
Health impacts of climate change
Density equalling cartogram. WHO regions scaled according to estimated mortality (per million people) in the
year 2000, attributable to the climate change that occurred from 1970s to 2000. Patz et al, in press
Emissions of greenhouse gases
Density equalling cartogram. Countries scaled according to cumulative emissions in billion tonnes carbon
equivalent in 2002. Patz et al
Solutions
 Mitigation:
 move to post carbon economy
 Draw down CO2 to achieve a “safe climate” with
a CO2 of 350ppm
 Adaptation
 Improve education amongst doctors of current
climate science, health impacts and solutions
 Move to develop skill share and educational
relationships with the developing world
Primary Health Care Strategies
Blashki McMichael Karoly 2007
Danger
Opportunity
Solutions
 Our capacity to respond to the negative effects
of climate change relies on the generation of
reliable, relevant and current information
“There’s a call for a public health movement
that frames the threat of climate change for
humankind as a health issue.” Lancet 2009
Video...
 There is also a fantastic video relating to the
effects of climate change available for viewing
or dowload Click here after reading directions below.
There are two versions available, one for
Windows (the .wmv file) and one for Mac
(the .mp4 file). To download simply right-click
the appropriate version and select "Download
linked file as..." (or an equivalent command).