Transcript pnamp_cc_overview_4_05_11 - Pacific Northwest Aquatic

USGS & WFRC Science Directions
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Ecosystems
Climate change
Water availability
Energy
Invasive species
Wildlife health and disease
Threatened and
endangered species
The Pacific Northwest Climate Change Collaboration (C3)
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On the Landscape: CSCs & LCCs
Climate Science Centers (CSCs)
Delivering Fundamental Climate-Impact Science to
Resource Managers on a Regional Basis
Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs)
On-the-Ground Applied Science and Adaptive
Management
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National Climate Change and Wildlife Center
at USGS HQ & Eight regional Climate Science
Centers (CSCs)
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Twenty-One Nationwide, functioning within a
specific landscape as part of a national and
international network
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Provide scientific information, tools and
techniques for land, water, wildlife and cultural
resource managers to adapt to climate and
ecologically-driven responses at regional-tolocal scales.
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Focus on-the-ground strategic conservation &
adaptive management efforts at the landscape
level.
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Management-science partnerships that inform
integrated resource-management
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Link science and conservation delivery
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LCCs are cooperatives, formed and directed by
land, water, wildlife and cultural resource
managers and other stakeholders.
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Steering committees will include representatives
from governmental entities (federal, state, tribal
and local), as well as non-governmental
organizations.
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Deliver basic climate-change-impact science to
Landscape Conservation Cooperatives
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Prioritize fundamental science, data and
decision-support activities to meet the needs of
the LCCs.
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Work with the LCCs to develop adaptive
management and other decision-support tools
for managers.
Responding to Climate Variability and Change:
Trans-boundary Assessment & Services in the CRB
Objective
Develop and test a practical, integrated approach
to organizing and collecting climate change
information and science to support climate
related decision making at both regional and
local scales
Decision Analysis: What is it?
• A set of tools for structuring and analyzing complex
decision problems
• An approach and process for making logical,
reproducible, and defensible decisions in the face of:
– Technical complexity
– Uncertainty
– Multiple, competing objectives
• A multi-disciplinary field of study drawing from
statistics, economics, operations research, management
science, psychology…
Numerous structured decision making
“tools” exist
Examples in use within the
USGS include:
– Joint Fact Finding (JFF)
– Stakeholder Analysis (SA)
– Decision Support Systems
(DSS)
– Adaptive Management
DA has similarities with all
these approaches, but some
key differences
– More quantitative than JFF
– More decision-focused than
SA
– More process- focused than
DSS
– More comprehensive than
AM
Decision Analysis at the USGS
DA provides (at least) 3 key benefits
– Multi-discipline integration: Acts as an integrating tool, to help
bring together the varied research and researchers within the climate
change community (and the broader technical community)
– Information value: Helps to locate and/or highlight areas where
significant gaps in data or knowledge limit understanding of the full
nature of the issue being considered
– Link to end-users: Provides a tangible and explicit link between
science and the needs of customers and end-users of the science and
data.
aka Research to Operations (R2O) =
Integrated Approach to Global Climate Change
Economic
Demands
Natural
Resources
Recreation
Agriculture
Physical
Population
Growth
WFRC, Columbia River Research Laboratory
NOAA – NCDC, Western Region Climate Services
Social
Tribal
Culture
Biological
Decision Support: Linking Models to Predict Climate Change Effects
Habitat
Physical
Population
Bioenergetics
Social & Economic Analyses
Partners:
•Federal, State, and Local Agencies
•Universities
•Tribes
•Great Northern LCC, CSCs
Stakeholders:
•Agriculture, Landowners, Local Recreation
•Tribes: Yakama, Colville, Umatilla
•Local Officials
Community
Linking Models to Predict Climate Change Effects
in the Yakima River Basin
Habitat
Physical
Population
Aquatic
Community
Bioenergetics
Socioeconomic analyses
•Idaho Falls, ID (USGS, Science Apps., Climate Change) - $
•Tacoma, WA (USGS Water Resources) - Physical models
•Yakima, WA (BOR) - Water management (RiverWare)
•CRRL - Habitat criteria, GIS, Decision Support Tools
•CRRL – Bioenergetics
•CRRL – Fish population analyses
•Ft Collins, CO (USGS) — Sociologist & Economist
Linking Physical, Biological, Social & Economic
Bioenerget
ics Model
(Growth)
Change Scenarios
Base
1988
-2006
Early
20202030
Mid
204
020
50
Watershe
d
Model
Salmon
Survival
Model
(Population)
Interactions
(Community)
RiverWare
Temperatu
re
Model
Habitat maps
Hydrodyna
mic
Model
GIS
Modeling
Habitat
DSS
Socioeconomic
Analyses
Columbia Basin R2O Workgroup
[20+ Fed (US & Canada), State, Tribal & NGOs]
Pilot project: Methow River Basin
• Jan. 2010 – Methow CC Team
• ~20 researchers/managers
• March 16-18, 2010
• DA Stakeholders Workshop
• Developed Conceptual Model for the Methow
• Oct 2010
• data compiled, modeling approach defined
• February 2011
•DA Stakeholders
Why is R2O Working?
•Strong Multi-Disciplinary Approach
•Integrates Research at International, Regional, & Local
levels
•Collaborative Research with Multiple Local Agencies
•High Stakeholder Involvement
•Stakeholders’ Workshops
•Online Decision Support Tools
•Decision Analysis
• Conceptual Models
Why USGS?
• Federal mission, experience/expertise,
credibility, and multidisciplinary
capability
• Significant NW presence—5 science
centers, 3 Coop units, 2 Geology
laboratories
• Expertise in biologic,
cartographic/geographic, geologic,
and hydrologic sciences
• Decades of scientific studies in the
Basin, e.g., stream-gauging stations,
salmonid research
Next Steps
•Continue on-the-ground science in the Methow
•Cross-Case comparison of studies in Columbia River Basin
•Select additional sites for monitoring
•Develop long-term anchor location
•Long-Term monitoring, paired with answering specific
questions