Transcript Global 2000 Report - Friends and Partners

You cannot solve the problem with the same
thinking that created the problem Albert Einstein
Integrated Approach to Climate
Change in Bangladesh
Jed Shilling, Chairman Board of Trustees
www.millennium-institute.org
DFID --
October 7, 2009
Why We Need Systemic Tools
• Bangladesh faces serious challenges
• New challenges need to be addressed by
innovative new methods
• Conference in Bellagio last year
demonstrated Bangladesh had done
serious work on climate change and
sought new tools to apply better policies
• We will introduce an innovative and
effective tool to help address these issues
Bellagio Conference Results
• Meeting of experts in Bangladesh sponsored by
Rockefeller Foundation and BCAS
• Summarized the work on climate change done
by Bangladeshi experts and the challenges
• Recognized the need to understand the crosssector effects of climate change impacts and of
the country’s policies
• Concluded that a systemic model was needed to
analyze alternate policies and assumptions
about climate change, and recommended T21
Bangladesh’s Challenges
• Achieving sustainable development
• Assuring benefits distributed to
significantly reduce poverty
• Dealing with Climate Change impacts to
reduce the risks and costs
– Take account of cross sector impacts
– Address increasingly complex issues
– Promote more cooperation
Why a Systemic Approach?
• Conventional analyses rarely look beyond the
sector specific and beneficial results
• Activities in any sector can have effects, direct
and indirect on other sectors
• We now face broader systemic problems
– Economic activities affect society and the environment -- Pollution
and climate change
– Social activities affect the economy and environment -- Migration
and land degradation
– Environmental factors affect the economy and society -- Floods
and droughts and heat waves
• It may be years before the impacts are evident, but we can
determine that they are coming and be precautionary
Systemic Example
We Need to be Careful
To Avoid Unexpected Results!
The Millennium Institute
• MI was established in 1983 to promote innovative,
holistic, long-term strategic planning
• MI’s Goals are to help reduce poverty, increase
sustainable growth, and improve living standards
• MI achieves this through Threshold 21, which
• Is an innovative tool for better strategic decision making
• Helps convert strategic visions into achievable, sustainable
development plans and investment programs
• Builds capacity of the users to apply the model to achieve their
goals sooner and avoid negative side effects
• Incorporates stakeholders’ concerns into the process
System Dynamics Modeling
• The Global 2000 Report raised serious issues about the
lack of tools for integrated analyses
• Sector and macro models did not address cross sector
issues, and still typically don’t
• “Discovery” of System Dynamics
• This led to the invention of the THRESHOLD 21 Model
and application in many countries
• Continued innovation added sustainability issues, MDGs,
PRSPs, Climate change, energy, food, risk factors, etc.
• Support for private sector planning -- GM
• Application to Green Economics issues -- WWF, UNEP,
MI Around the World
T 21 Countries
MI Partner
MI Head Office
M 3 Countries
MEG Countries
Range of Economic Models
• Political Economy and conceptual models
that try to explain basic relations
• Linear models and Econometrics
• Accounting frameworks: RMSM, MTEF
• Matrix models: I-O, SAM, and CGE
• Sector models: MARKAL, WEM
• Broader Systemic models: T21
The Threshold 21 Approach
• System dynamics methodology
 Reflects observed real world relations
 Based on existing sector analyses
 Analyzes cross-sector links and feedback loops
• T21 is composed of three main pillars
 Economic -- SAM, key market balances, and production
 Social -- dynamics in population, health, HIV/AIDS, education
 Environmental -- area specific issues and information
• Adapted to priority goals and vision for each individual country, based on
its own data, structure, and patterns of activity
• Calibrated against history to provide reality checks and learn more
• Generates multiple medium-to-long-term scenarios
The Basic T21 Structure
production
population
labor
investment
health
society
infrastruc
ture
education
technology
economy
energy
government
poverty
households
row
land
climate
change
water
environment
emissions
minerals
sustainabi
lity
The Key Connections in T21
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Threshold 21 Advantages
• Powerful and fully integrated tool helps understand the
full range of effects of policies to achieve your goals
• Based on real-world causal relations across economic,
social, and environmental sectors, not just on theory
• Scenarios illustrate options to see how different policies
help achieve medium to longer-term objectives
• Sector detail integrated into holistic framework
• Promotes productive dialogue among different
stakeholders to build broader support
• Fast, User-friendly, Transparent
Threshold 21 Experiences
• Malawi -- Coordinating policy makers to reach
consensus on national strategy
• Guiana -- Spreading the benefits of Structural
adjustment to help the poor
• Mozambique -- Incorporating stakeholder views to
prevent negative side-effects
• Mali -- Demonstrating what is needed to achieve targets
• China -- Food security, energy, GHG emissions
• USA -- Energy, Industrial security
• UNEP -- Integrating Green sectors into a
comprehensive Green Economy
How T21 Is Applied
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To help achieve MDGs
Deal with climate change issues
Address energy and food security
For risk analysis
Achieving the MDGs
• Tracks these non-economic elements of wellbeing overall, by region, and income level
• Incorporates their interactions and relations
across sectors
• Identifies synergies in achieving goals and
coordinating policies to get best results
• Analyzes costs and benefits of supporting these
goals in relation to other options and overall
development
• Demonstrates how targets are being achieved
Dealing with Climate Issues
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Water availability, source, and pollution
Sea Level rise
Land use, degradation, forest change
Natural disasters: impacts, proactive and
reactive policies, etc.
• Social protection
• Coordination of programs in different sectors
• Testing effects of different assumptions about
rates of climate change
Bangladesh Climate Issues
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Water Challenges
Agriculture Challenges
Health Challenges
Social challenges
Economic Challenges
Regional Challenges
Food Security
• Examines domestic production options for both
in relation to adaptation and mitigation
• Considers land degradation, water availability,
and pollution issues
• Analyzes price sensitivity and relation to trade
• Examines means of increasing domestic
production sustainably and effects on jobs, etc.
• Tests how increased domestic production can
improve development over time and at what cost
• Analyzes risks and means of dealing with them
Energy Security
• Examines benefits and costs of increasing
energy efficiency
• Illustrates sensitivity to external shocks
• Examines application of more renewables
• Analyzes options to reduce energy
demand without diminishing development
• Tests risks of energy shortages
Risk Analysis
• Future is unknown and not predictable
• Bangladesh faces risks from shifts in structure, trends, and
exogenous factors, which can be tested in scenarios
• T21 can analyze risks by Monte Carlo estimates, by assuming
exogenous shifts, by endogenous structural change,
confidence parameters, or by including long-term limitations,
e.g. on resources
• Impacts are based on previous experiences or specific studies
• These risk scenarios help identify where adaptation, mitigation,
or precautionary measures are needed and what their costs
and benefits will be
Systematic Analysis of Issues
• Test different assumptions about rate of climate
changes
• Examine the effects of policies in one sector on
the others,
– Water on agriculture, land, and health
– Infrastructure on food and energy security and
urbanization
– Migration on productivity and civil security
• Economic, social, and environmental costs and
benefits of different programs
Data for T21
• Uses data from existing sources, other models,
special studies, etc. for economy, society, and
environment
• Uses inputs from local experts on data and
relationships
• Structuring and calibration of model helps
identify data inconsistencies and gaps
• T21 organizes relatively complex data into more
transparent and easily understandable structure
• We have been able to gather necessary data for
wide range of countries
T21 Application Process
• Information collection -- data and real
world relations
• Local capacity building -- modelers and
users
• Stakeholder involvement in design and
application
• Testing and calibration with local experts
• Dialogue promotion with different parties
• Transfer of ownership and use of model
T21 Values
• Learn a lot in building model
• Helps bring together stakeholders and provides
a common transparent, non-partisan language
• Calibration builds confidence in reliability of
model representing the real world
• Long term view of results across sectors
• Readily modified to address new issues, add
new information, and examine new goals
• Transparent and easy to use as Weishuang will
demonstrate
Thank You for Your Attention
Questions and comments are welcome
www.millennium-institute.org
[email protected]
Our Experience
Sustainable strategic development, customized
models, and reports fo over 45 countries
• Islands: Jamaica, St Lucia, Cape Verde, Mauritius,
• Poverty, MDGs, and job creation: Ghana, Mali, Malawi,
Mozambique, Jamaica, Bhutan
• Energy: USA, North America, China, Denmark, Mozambique,
Jamaica, Ecuador
• Education and Health: Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Mozambique,
Swaziland, Thailand, Malaria, HIV/AIDS
• Environment: Papua, Mozambique, Bhutan, China
• Natural disasters and External shocks: Jamaica, Mali,
Mozambique, USA, Denmark
• Current activities: Swaziland, Mauritius, Senegal, Ohio,
Maui, Lollands, China, USA, ECOWAS, UNEP Green
Economy,
T21’s Analytic Strengths
• Highly flexible and readily adapted to each user’s issues
• Integrates the best available sector models and other sources
of information and helps improve data consistency
• Combines economic, social, and environmental factors into a
single holistic model where most variables are endogenous
• Based on real experience, not text book based solutions
• Generates scenarios to compare different ways to achieve
goals, monitor progress, and evaluate results across all sectors
• Supports full cost-benefit analyses
• Identifies tipping points and other risks related to climate
change, external factors, and possible shocks
T21’s Operational Strengths
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Helps understand the real development processes and what is needed to
achieve the user’s goals over long time horizon
Easily updated to include more recent data, new sectors or issues, and other
strategic factors
Shows cross-sectoral feedback; unintended consequences on the society,
economy, and environment; long-term structural changes over time; and noneconomic benefits and risks
Helps design better policy combinations and investment programs to achieve
strategic goals, sustainable development,
Graphic and tabular outputs make it easy to show, compare, and analyze
results
Tracks and shows the causal relations producing results, which helps identify
where mitigation is needed
T21’s Functional Strengths
• Provides a transparent tool to unite various parties around
consistent policies and build support for necessary actions.
• Helps link short- medium- and long-term planning to assure more
sustainable policy choices
• Supports cooperation among stakeholders at the planning,
technical, and implementation levels
• Identifies needed behavioral changes that influence society,
economic, and environmental spheres.
• Generates a very positive return on the investment in this innovative,
dynamic process
• Provides scenarios of likely results, not perfect projections
What Partners and Clients Are Saying
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“MI’s integrated dynamic models have been vital for GM’s sales forecasts”
Paul Ballew, GM
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“MI’s long-term, integrated perspective is essential”
Pablo Guerrero, World Bank
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“MI’s T21 analytical tool is essential for effective national development strategies”
Ed Cain, Carter Center
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Fascinating!
David Cohen, Counterparts International
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If only we had known such a tool existed….
Chorus of planning experts from 11 countries in Southern Africa
We need to use this tool at the Headquarters, in our embassies and help our country partner
acquire it…
Dutch Ambassador Ton Boon von Ochsen
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I want that T 21 planning team in my office…
Président Amadou T Touré, Mali
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It has been my dream since ten years to get the the POIJ departments to work
together…now its happening with T21; With T21 I can see team building and networking
across the ministries and government agencies and effective communication
Wesley Hugh, Director Planning office Jamaica