Transcript The Changing Consciousness Project

Science for the MDGs:
The need for new policy development tools
and methods
Hans R. Herren
www.millennium-institute.org
[email protected]
AAAS Symposium, February 2008
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
Who are we?
• The Millennium Institute is a not for profit organization
based in Arlington VA, USA.
• Established in 1983 to promote system thinking and longterm integrated approaches to decision making in national
governments, civil society, universities, foundations and
the public.
• MI has assisted many countries analyze strategic options
to achieve sustainable development goals; trained staff of
governments, agencies, and NGOs in the application of
systemic analysis; and helped General Motors design its
program in many emerging markets
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
Call for new development
planning support tools/methods: Why?
• Formulation and general agreement on MDGs in 2000
• Comprehensive Development Framework and PRSP
• Response to global warming, energy and environmental
degradation issues, good governance, Commission for Africa
report, Paris Declaration on harmonization…
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So far mixed results in meeting medium term MDGs targets
Difficulties in developing realistic PRSPs
Lacking dialogue among the development stakeholder
Missing input regarding value for sustainable development of
S & T investments
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
Call for new development
planning support tools/methods: Why?
The Paris Declaration, calling:
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for “Changed Behavior” of donors and governments i.e.,
• Change in behavior & operations
• Change in policies & procedures
• Change in processes & systems
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to build a new form of Development Partnership - by changing deeply
rooted patterns of Institutional behavior
To change donor behavior from Disbursement Imperative to “Aid
Effectiveness Imperative”
For Government to have Leadership on external assistance
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
Call for new development
planning support tools/methods: Why?
• Formulation and general agreement on MDGs in 2000
• Comprehensive Development Framework and PRSP
• Response to global warming, energy and environmental
degradation issues, good governance, Commission for Africa
report, Paris Declaration on harmonization…
• So far mixed results in meeting medium term MDGs targets
• Difficulties in developing realistic PRSPs
• Difficulties in integrating the economy, society and the
environment into a self reinforcing, single framework
• Lacking dialogue among the development stakeholder
• Missing input regarding value for sustainable development of S
& T investments
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
Call for new development
planning support tools/methods: Why?
Also a need to address and cater for:
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Long term holistic vision (Economy+Society+Environment
Country ownership (public/private and civil society)
Country led partnership
Country led sustainable development agenda
• Focus on results (impact & consequences of policy
choices)
• Monitoring and evaluation of progress and impact
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
Call for new development
planning support tools/methods: For what?
• Getting the System right (capacity & accountability /governance
issues)
• Peace and Security (prevention / management of conflicts and
post conflicts negotiations
• Leaving no One Out ( T21 for dialogue; rebuilding countries)
• Going for Growth (& development / poverty reduction)
• Leveraging Key scientific and technological advances
• Applying Aid to create system-wide synergies (finding the entry
points)
• Identify and Avoid key unintended consequences of development
projects
• More Trade & Fairer Trade (analyses of opportunities and
costs…..)
….and How?…. And with What means?
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
Call for new development
planning support tools/methods: How?
•
Development and dissemination of advanced analytical tools
and methods in support of prospective planning dialogues and
M&E at community, national, global, agency levels;
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Crafting and implementing capacity development for a broad
cross-section of partners in sustainable development (system
thinking & handling) using all modern communication means;
•
Building a network of supporters and partners across the globe
to inspire, promote, endow and implement rational, integrated
and holistic planning;
•
Applying the lessons learned towards better efficiency of our
activities to serve
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
Understanding Systems…
..removing a problem,
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
Understanding Systems…
..may create feedbacks &
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
Understanding Systems…
unintended consequence
average time to
graduate
school feeding
disbursment
children in
school
enrollements
school feeeding
per student
graduations
literate
population
deaths
dropouts
attractiveness to
go to school
school age
children
literacy rate
fertility
students per
class
households
income
students per
teacher
workers
productivity
teching staff
infrastructure
real gdp
government
education budget
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
Understanding Systems…
unintended consequence
average time to
graduate
school feeding
disbursment
children in
school
enrollements
school feeeding
per student
graduations
literate
population
deaths
dropouts
attractiveness to
go to school
school age
children
literacy rate
fertility
students per
class
households
income
students per
teacher
workers
productivity
teching staff
infrastructure
real gdp
government
education budget
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
Why use models ?
• Help understand how things work in the real world
• Help understand why certain results occur
• Help see what is likely to happen in the future
under different development policies
• Help inform strategic and other decisions
• Help our limited mental ability to deal with more
than 3 or 4 variables simultaneously
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
The Three Areas of Integration
Threshold 21
Economy
Society
Environment
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
T21 Architecture
Population
Births
Deaths
Population
Health
Labor
Society
Government
Households
Economy
Infrastr
ucture
Education
Technology
Poverty
Primary
Education
Secondary
Education
Revenue
Investment
Expenditure
Production
Financing
Debt
ROW
Agriculture
Industry
Land
Services
Energy
Water
Water
Demand
Water
Supply
Environment
Minerals
Emissions
Sustain
ability
Energy
Demand
Energy
Supply
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
The Key Connections in T21
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
T 21
Broader Systemic Model:
•
Addresses the WHOLE system, including, economic, social and
environmental factors
C ons um pti on
Loans /de bt
He al th, Edu., Fam .
Pl ann i n g
In com e
Li ve
e xpe n cta ncy
In ve s tm e n t
Popul ati on
C api tal
Labor force
Produ cti on
Edu cati o n
l e ve l
Labor producti vi ty
Re s ource Pol l uti o n con tro l
cons e rvati on
•
Takes account of interactions across the WHOLE system
•
Generates long-term scenarios to show effects over time
•
Helps users analyze and understand how national systems function
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
Threshold 21
approach
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System dynamics methodology
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Composed of three main areas
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Built to reflect observed real world relations in country of application
Analyzes cross-sector links and feedback loops
Based on wide range of existing sector models and analyses
Economic -- based on SAM, key market balances, and production over time
Social -- based on current dynamics in population, health, HIV/AIDS, education
Environmental -- based on country specific issues and information
Adapted to country specific data, issues, objectives, actual relations
Calibrated against history and reality checks
Easy to use interface to simulate hundreds of options, based on 12,000
equations and variables on a laptop in less than 15 seconds
Easy to compare results of different options on the roadmaps generated
Builds local capacity to integrate T21 into national planning
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
For Example:
The MDG Challenges
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Success within the target sectors
Interaction among the target sectors
Impacts beyond the target sectors
Impacts over time
Sustaining and building on success so the
programs continue beyond 2015
• Increasing capacity for self-sustaining programs
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
T21 Shows results of feedback
Results compared
under five population
4M
3M
2M
1990
1995
2000
2005 2010
Time (Year)
under five population : Base
under five population : Health
2015
2020
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
2025
Person
Person
T21 Shows cross-sector feedback
Broader systemic results
under five population
4M
3M
2M
1990
1995
2000
2005 2010 2015
Time (Year)
under five population : Base
under five population : Health and Education
2020
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
2025
Person
Person
T21 Fully integrated results
Broader systemic results
gdp in usd2000
20 B
10 B
0
1990
1995
2000
gdp in usd2000 : Base
gdp in usd2000 : All
2005 2010
Time (Year)
2015
2020
2025
USD2000/Year
USD2000/Year
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
T21’s Strategic Capacity
• Generates continuous long-term scenarios that provide a better
framework for strategic planning
• Demonstrates full range of effects and impacts of different policies
and assumptions on overall sustainability
• Compares the results of different policy options graphically or in
tables for economic, social, and environmental results
• Helps identify ways to mitigate possible negative side-effects
• Can help identify risks stemming from potential crises
• Monitors the MDGs and other indicators
• It can show the costs and benefits of different approaches over time
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
MI’s Suggestions for
T21 Country X implementation
Partners: Government, Universities, Civil Society
Organizations, Private Sector
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Capacity Development for SD and Modeling:
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Development Executive course: SD, case studies, T21. Five days,
15 to 30 participants from Gov, Private and Public sectors.
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Core modeling team course. Three modules 6 weeks (SD theory,
T21 model, sub-sector building).
Building of full T21 Country X with sub-sectors of
special interest (customization)
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
MI around the World
T 21 Countries
MI Partner
MI Head Office
M 3 Countries
MEG Countries
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
What our partners and
clients are saying…
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“MI’s integrated dynamic models have been vital for GM’s sales forecasts”
Paul Ballew, GM
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“MI’s long-term, integrated perspective is essential”
Pablo Guerrero, World Bank
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“MI’s T21 analytical tool is essential for effective national development strategies”
Ed Cain, Carter Center
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Fascinating!
David Cohen, Counterparts International
If only we had known such a tool existed….
Chorus of planning experts from 11 countries in Southern Africa
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We need to use this tool at the Headquarters, in our embassies and help our country
partner acquire it…
Dutch Ambassador Ton Boon von Ochsen
I want that T 21 planning team in my office…
Président Amadou T Touré, Mali
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It has been my dream since ten years to get the the POIJ departments to work
together…now its happening with T21; With T21 I can see team building and
networking across the ministries and government agencies and effective
communication
Wesley Hugh, Director Planning office Jamaica
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein
Thank You for Your Attention
Questions and comments
are welcome
www.millennium-institute.org
[email protected]
You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein