Transcript Jackson et al. 2010 - UW Program on Climate Change

Climate Change
Impacts on the
Puget Sound
Region
Lara Whitely Binder
Climate Impacts Group
Center for Science in the Earth System
University of Washington
April 2, 2012
The Climate Impacts Group
An integrated research team studying the impacts of climate
variability and climate change in the PNW and western US
Downscaling global climate
model projections
Working
since 1995
to:
Macro and fine-scale
hydrologic modeling
Impacts assessments for
water resources, terrestrial
and aquatic ecosystems
Adaptation
planning and
outreach
• Produce science useful to (and used by!) the decision
making community
• Increase regional resilience to climate variability and
change
Climate Affects Important Local Government Services and Functions
Public Health
Water Quality
M&I Water Supply
Stormwater
Management
Natural Areas Mngmt
Environmental
Protection
Flood Management
Energy Supply
Economic
Development
Samish
Island,
Skagit
County,
Jan24,
2009
Riffe
neardamage
Morton,
Jan
2001
1997 Lake,
landslide
–WA,
Washington
Dept. of Ecology
The Scientific Basis of Climate Change (con’t)
1859 - John Tyndall
discovers that some
gases block infrared
radiation.
He suggests that
changes in the
concentration of the
gases could bring
climate change.
The Scientific Basis of Climate Change (con’t)
1896 - Svante Arrhenius
publishes first calculation of
global warming from human
emissions of CO2.
Arrhenius projects that
doubling the CO2 in the
atmosphere would raise
global temp some 5-6°C (911°F)
The Scientific Basis of Climate Change (con’t)
1938 – Guy Callendar
publishes The Artificial
Production of Carbon
Dioxide and its Influence on
Temperature.
Links upward trends in early
20th century global
temperatures to increasing
concentrations of
atmospheric CO2 and fossil
fuel combustion
+35%
Figure source: IPCC 2007
+142%
Nitrous Oxide
+18%
Methane
Figure source: IPCC WG1 (2007)
Projecting Future Climate:
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios
Emissions scenarios are used to “drive” global climate models.
Different scenarios result in different climate change projections.
Each “family” makes different
assumptions about: population growth,
economic development, forms of energy,
agricultural production, etc.
Figure sources: http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/index.cgi?More_Info-Emissions; IPCC 2001, Summary for Policy Makers
Without drastic changes in current emissions trends, GHG
concentrations will increase dramatically over the 21st
century and with that, global temperature.
IPCC “best
estimate” range
of global-scale
warming by the
2090s:
3.2°F-7.2°F
(likely range: 2-11.5°F)
Figure source: IPCC 2007 WG1, Summary for Policy Makers
Projected Increases in
Annual PNW Temperature
* Relative to 1970-1999 average
2020s
+2.0°F (1.1-3.4°F)
2040s
+3.2°F (1.6-5.2°F)
2080s
+5.3°F (2.8-9.7°F)
(Low emissions)
(Moderate emissions)
Historic
°C
°F
Mote and Salathé, 2009
Projected Increases in
Annual PNW Precipitation
2020s
+1% (-9 to 12%)
2040s
+2% (-11 to +12%)
* Relative to 1970-1999 average
2080s
+4% (-10 to +20%)
Historic
Mote and Salathé, 2009
Projected Changes in Days Above 92°F – Seattle Area
(showing results for moderate [& high] warming scenarios)
Baseline: 1980-2006
Mean # events: 1.7 | Mean (max) duration in days: 2.2(6)
2025
• Mean # heat events: 3.6 [5.8]
• Mean (max) duration in days: 2.3(7) [2.7(18)]
2045
• Mean # heat events: 4.7 [8.8]
• Mean (max) duration in days: 2.6 (14) [3.2(18)]
2085
• Mean # heat events: 7.2 [10.1]
• Mean (max) duration in days: 2.9 (18) [6.1(57)]
What About Changes in
Extreme Precipitation?
Simulations generally indicate
increases in extreme precipitation
over the next 50 years, however:
– The projections vary by model
and region, and
– Actual changes may be
difficult to distinguish from
natural variability.
Salathé et al. 2010, Rosenberg et al. 2010)
Snow
Sometimes you’ve got it....
...and sometimes you don’t.
Photo source: World Meteorological Organization
The Cascade and Olympic Mountains
have the highest fraction of “warm
snow”* in the continental U.S.
Warm snow = snow falling between 27-32°F
(Mote et al. 2008)
(
The “Cliff Clavin” Fact
Low
Medium
Key Impact:
Loss of April 1
Snow Cover
-29%
-44%
-65%
-27%
-37%
-53%
Elsner et al. 2010;. Map: Rob Norheim
Three types of basins
rain-dominant
“transient” – double peaked
snowmelt-dominant
Impacts on Seasonal Streamflow Timing
Mixed Rain/Snow (Transient) Basin
Increasing winter
flows
Earlier, lower
peak runoff
Lower summer
streamflow
Elsner et al. 2010
Naturalized flows (i.e., no dams)
Impacts on Seasonal Streamflow Timing
Green River
Sept 30
Oct 1
Red line = historical weekly averages, 1917-2006.
Black line = composite value for the 2020s
Gray area = the range of the in ensembles
Dark grey line = composite value for the 2040s
Dotted gray line = composite value for the 2080s
Naturalized flows (i.e., no dams)
Vano et al. 2010
Slide courtesy of Paul Fleming, SPU
Urban Flooding & Stormwater
Infrastructure
• General increase in risk of winter
flooding in western WA and
combined sewer overflows in lowand mid-elevation basins
• Changes in urban flooding less clear
• Drainage infrastructure designed
using historical rainfall records may
not meet future required capacity as
precipitation intensity and extremes
become more severe.
Impacts on Salmon - Freshwater
Impacts vary by stock, life stage, and location.
Impacts in freshwater largely driven by:
• Higher winter streamflows (scouring of redds)
• Earlier peak spring streamflows (juvenile
transport)
• Lower summer streamflows (stranding)
• Warmer summer streamflows (thermal stress)
Washington State Sea Level Rise
Medium (w/range) estimates of sea level rise in Washington for 2100:
Puget Sound:
+13” (+6 to +50”)
Central/Southern Coast:
+11” (+2 to +43”)
.
Mote et al. 2008
NW Olympic Peninsula:
+2” (-9 to +35”)
Alki Beach, West Seattle
Photo by Hugh Shipman, WA Dept of Ecology
Alki Beach, West Seattle, January 21, 2010
Photo by Hugh Shipman
Source: Washington Dept of Ecology
Near-term Challenges of SLR
Sea level rise increases
storm surge and the risk
of:
• flooding,
• erosion,
• habitat loss
These impacts will
affect coastal areas
long before
permanent inundation.
Changing Coastal
Flood Risk
For much of Puget Sound…
• A one foot of sea level rise
turns a 100 year flood
event into a 10 year
event.
• A two foot sea level rise
turns a 100 year flood
event into an annual
event.
Numbers and photos courtesy of Hugh Shipman, Washington Dept. of Ecology
Human Health
Vulnerable populations include: Young children & infants; the elderly; those
with compromised immune systems; mentally ill populations; urban poor,
racial/ethnic minorities; socially-isolated
Changes in heat events
and projected excess deaths in Seattle metro area*
1000
750
988
85+
65-84
45-64
401
500
156
250
280
211
101
0
2025 2045 2085 2025 2045 2085 2025 2045 2085
Low
Jackson et al. 2010
Moderate
High
*Population
held constant
at 2025
projection so
numbers
reflect
influence of
climate alone
Air Quality
Reductions in summer air quality likely via the contribution
of warmer air temperatures to:
•
ground-level ozone formation
•
West-side forest fire risks
Jackson et al. 2010
Climate change requires changes in how we plan,
design, and manage the infrastructure, services, and
functions of a community.
What Does it Mean to
Adapt to Climate Change?
Taking steps to avoid or minimize known climate change
impacts while increasing the ability of human and natural
systems to “bounce back” from the impacts that cannot
be avoided (or anticipated)
General Implementation Tools
•
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•
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•
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•
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Zoning rules and regulations
Taxation (including tax incentives)
Building codes/design standards
Utility rates/fee setting
Public safety rules and regulations
Issuance of bonds
Infrastructure development
Permitting and enforcement
Best management practices
Outreach and education
Emergency management powers
Partnership building with other communities
Dealing with Uncertainty
• We rarely have perfect information. Uncertainty is everywhere.
– Should I buy earthquake insurance?
– Should I change jobs?
– How long will this recession last?
• Somehow we manage…
– Identify options,
– Build theories,
– Evaluate risk,
– Learn from experience,
– Rely on experts/peers
Thanks to Tom Pagano, USDA NRCS, for much of this slide
Planning for Uncertainty
• “No regrets” strategies
Provides benefits now with or without
climate change
• “Low regrets” strategies
Provide climate change benefits for little
additional cost or risk
• “Win-win” or “Co-benefit” strategies
Reduce climate change impacts while
providing other environmental, social, or
economic benefits
de Loë et al. 2001;Willows and Connell 2003; Luers and Moser 2006
Important Closing Considerations
The future will not present itself in a simple, predictable
way, as natural variations will still be important for
climate change in any location
The results presented here are projections, not
predictions.
While we expect the direction of the trends to remain
consistent, specific values will vary over time.
FOR MORE INFORMATION
Climate Impacts Group
www.cses.washington.edu/cig
Lara Whitely Binder
[email protected]