Transcript No Slide Title - Earth and Environmental Systems Institute

The Penn State Earth System
Science Center
Michael E. Mann
Dept. of Meteorology, Dept. of Geosciences, and Earth and
Environmental Systems Institute
Director, Penn State Earth System Science Center
Founded within the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences in 1986, the
Earth System Science Center (ESSC) maintains a mission to describe,
model, and understand the Earth's climate system.
The climate system can be viewed as a complex interacting set of
components including the oceans, atmosphere, cryosphere, and
biosphere.
Within the ESSC, we are engaged in studies that aim to understand
these individual components, and the interactions between them.
We emphasize the combination of modeling, empirical analysis, and
exploration of fundamental processes to investigate the behavior of the
climate system.
This includes coupled ocean-atmosphere climate modeling,
reconstruction of past climate using paleoclimate data, the comparison
of models and observations, and the study of fundamental processes in
the earth system.
ESSC Past
rapid climate changes since the LGM…
Abrupt Climate
Change
(Alley,
Seidov,
Haupt)
Data from Meese et al. (1994) and Stuiver et al. (1995).
20 year running mean, dO18-temp conversion based on Cuffey et al, 1995
…the initiation of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
•
Coupled GCM + 3D ice-sheet model
•
Observed drastic ice growth at EoceneOligocene boundary ~34 Ma
•
107-year
Model vs.
observed
Ice growth
across E-O
boundary:
simulations, with gradual CO2
decline and orbital forcing triggering nonlinear ice-sheet growth
Model ice sheet snapshots through transition:
a
4,700,000 years
b
5,200,000 years
meters
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
c
5,800,000 years
d
6,000,000 years
meters
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
DeConto, R. M. and Pollard, D.,
2003, Rapid Cenozoic glaciation of
Antarctica induced by declining
atmospheric CO2, Nature, v. 421, p.
245-249.
…the possible forcings of mid-Miocene climate
changes ~15 Ma ago
1) Closure of Tethys
and Indonesian
gateways generates
MMCO through
enhancement of
warm water transport
to high latitudes
2) Late full opening of
Drake Passage
thermally isolates
Antarctica leading to
EAIS growth
3) Or, do changes in
pCO2 play a role?
(M. Arthur)
…the “PETM”
Oceanic response to sudden CO2 addition:
EMIC Model t = 0
Simulation (L. Kump,
unpublished)
100
80
60
40
t = 10 ky
20
0
Forcing: 1.57 × 1017 mol CO2 with
d13C of –60‰ over 10 ky
wt% CaCO3
CaCO3 dissolution at the PETM (55 Ma)
…and comparisons across Geological Periods and Epochs
Comparison: Greenhouse Episodes and Observed vs.
Predicted Profiles
Genesis-GCM annual precipitation (top) and d18O
in precip (for a Cretaceous simulation at high sealevel stand bottom), around 90 Ma (D. Pollard)
Precipitation isotope chemistry as
determined from Paleosol evidence for
various Geological periods along with
theoretical modern curve (T. White).
We further seek to connect climate change on long
timescales and global spatial scales with a fundamental
understanding of physical processes…
…including the North Atlantic Oscillation
Benedict, J., S. Lee, and S. B.
Feldstein, Synoptic view of North
Atlantic Oscillation. J. Atmos.
Sci. 61, 121-144, 2004.
…including the North Atlantic Oscillation
European Winter Cooling
During the Little Ice Age
Empirical
LIA winter cooling in Europe
associated with an NAO (or
‘AO’) trend due to solar
irradiance changes, interacting
w/ stratospheric atmospheric
dynamics and chemistry
NASA/GISS Model
Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A.,
Mann, M.E., Rind, D., Waple, A.,
Solar forcing of regional climate
change during the Maunder
Minimum, Science, 294, 21492152, 2001.
…and the interrelated thermohaline ocean circulation
Delworth, T.L., and Dixon, K.W., Implications of the Recent Trend in the
Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation for the North Atlantic Thermohaline
Circulation, Journal of Climate: Vol. 13, No. 21, pp. 37213727, 2001.
Heat Flux and Surface Wind Anomalies Associated with
Positive Phase of NAO
…and the interrelated thermohaline ocean circulation
• Haupt, B. J. and D. Seidov, Warm deep-water ocean
conveyor during the Cretaceous time, Geology, 29,
295-298, 2001.
• Seidov, D. and B. J. Haupt, Freshwater
teleconnections and ocean thermohaline circulation,
Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 62-1 - 62-4, 2003.
• Seidov, D. and B.J. Haupt, How to run a minimalist’s
global ocean conveyor, Geophysical Research Letters,
32(7), L07610-1 - L07610-4, 2005
…and the interrelated thermohaline ocean circulation
Detection of Possible
Collapse of Thermohaline
Circulation
Observation
Observed fingerprints of
decadal scale oxygen trends in
the Southern Ocean constrain
model predictions driven by
circulation changes.
Model
- Observed trends
estimated from roughly
80, 00 oxygen
observations. Database:
(Conkright et al, 2002)
- Model “hindcast” from
Matear et al (2000).
Keller and Min (in prep)
…and tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics
Schematic model of the summer tropics.
Chan, S.C. and J.L. Evans, Comparison of the Structure of the ITCZ in the West Pacific during
the Boreal Summers of 1989–93 Using AMIP Simulations and ECMWF Reanalysis, Journal of
Climate, 15, 3549–3568, 2002.
…and tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics
Response of El Nino to past radiative forcing
Combined response to Solar
+Volcanic Forcing
Ensemble mean
Nino3 (100
realizations of CZ
model)
40 year
smooth
Palymra coral
isotopes (standardized
to have same mean and
standard deviation as
Nino3 composite series)
Mann, M.E., Cane, M.A., Zebiak, S.E., Clement, A., Volcanic and Solar
Forcing of the Tropical Pacific Over the Past 1000 Years, Journal of
Climate, 18, 447-456, 2005.
ESSC Present
ESSC Present
RECENT ACCOMPLISHMENTS
•High Performance Computing Cluster for Climate Model Simulation
purchased in January 2007 through a grant from the NSF IF program (lead P.I. M. Mann),
and subsidized with additional funds provided by S. Brantley through the Penn State Earth
and Environmental Systems Institute (ESSI).
comprised of 64 cores (32 processors, in the form of 16 nodes, with each node consisting of
two dual‐core 3.0 GHz Xeon 5300 series processors, 8 gigabytes of memory, and a 300 Gig
SAS drive)
maintained by the High Performance Computing Group/GEaRS unit of Information
Technology Services at Penn State.
Initial benchmarking indicates that the cluster is adequate for both memory‐intensive fully
coupled three dimensional ocean‐atmosphere model simulations, and highly parallel (e.g.
large‐ensemble) model runs.
•Bi-weekly “Climate Dynamics” brown bag seminar series, brings together
faculty, researchers and students interested in earth and climate system
research.
•Leverages visits to Penn State by leading climate and paleoclimate
researchers
•Provides modest salary support for key Penn State research personnel
•Support for synergistic efforts such as 2007-2008 “Quantitative
Environmental Decision Analysis Seminar Series” hosted by ESSC scientists
K. Keller and A. Small.
•Favorable public exposure:
Mention in a special “Green” issue of the widely read magazine Vanity Fair, in May 2007.
ESSC website ranks prominently in the major web search engines (first hit for “Earth
System Science Center”, 2nd hit for “Earth System Science”, and the 7th hit for “Earth
System” in google searches).
ESSC Present
RECENT ACCOMPLISHMENTS
•Ongoing development of version 3 of the GENESIS Global Climate Model, mainly
interactive coupling to the MOM2 OGCM, and incorporating CCM3 solar and thermal
infrared radiation modules into the GENESIS code. Subsequent multi-decadal simulations
(multi-millennial with asynchronous coupling) to calibrate and test the new results for
present-day climate and deep-sea conditions. One benefit of the radiative change is more
accurate greenhouse effects of atmospheric CO2 on thermal infrared fluxes at high CO2
levels. This has supported NSF grants ATM 0513421 and ATM 0310032, where the
GENESIS GCM is used in paleoclimate (Cenozoic and Cretaceous) simulations [D. Pollard]
•Three multi-decadal simulations with GENESIS v2.3 GCM of the Holocene at 10 ka BP, 6
ka BP and modern, in collaboration with J. Williams (PSU), S. Brantley (PSU) and Y.
Godderis (LMTG, Toulouse). GCM fields of soil temperatures and moisture fluxes over a
Mississippi Valley transect are provided to a soil geochemistry model, which is then run
through the Holocene and results compared with observed weathered soil chemistry profiles
in Peoria loess. This work is ongoing as part of J. Williams' master's thesis, and has
resulted in two meeting posters to date (Williams et al., 2006, 2007), and ongoing
collaboration with Y. Godderis [D. Pollard]
•Extensive suites of simulations with 1-D and 2-D versions using the Penn State dynamical
ice-sheet/shelf model, participating in the international Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison
Project (ISMIP, http://homepages.vub.ac.be/~phuybrec/ismip.html). The model has
participated both in the ISMIP/HEINO (Heinrich Events) and in the ISMIP/HOM (Higher
Order Models) intercomparisons. This has resulted in a collaborative poster at EGU (Calov
et al., 2007) and has contributed to NSF grants ATM 051342 and OPP/ANDRILL subaward
25-0500-0001-007. [D. Pollard]
ESSC Present
RECENT ACCOMPLISHMENTS
•Many experiments with dynamical ice-sheet/shelf model, investigating new methods of
representing grounding-line migration. Grounding-line behavior has recently been
recognized as a serious problem in large-scale ice-sheet modeling (C. Schoof, J. Fluid
Mech., 2007, and J. Geophys. Res., in press). Model grids usually do not adequately
resolve the narrow boundary layer at the grounding line where there is a sharp transition
from sheet-like to shelf-like flow. However, accurate grounding-line migration is likely to be
essential for the next generation of ice models in order to predict future acceleration and
destabilization of Greenland and Antarctic marginal outlet streams. As a result of this work,
we have successfully incorporated theoretical advances by C. Schoof into our 3-D ice
model, so grounding-line movement is treated accurately with horizontal resolutions coarse
enough to still allow continental-scale simulations. This work has resulted in one solicited
talk to date (Pollard and DeConto, 2007), and has contributed to NSF grants ATM 051342
and OPP/ANDRILL subaward 25-0500-0001-007. [D. Pollard]
•Monte Carlo simulations are being run for a project (see Dorin et al, 2007) examining
evidence for potential anthropogenic modulation of ENSO properties in the paleo-record?
[Penn State Geosciences graduate student J. Dorin advised K. Keller w/ additional input
from M. Mann]
•Ensemble runs of an intermediate complexity model (‘EMIC’) simulations are being used to
examine (see Militch et al , 2007ab) the utility of atmospheric, oceanic, and ice-core carbon
dioxide observations to constrain estimates of historic land-use emissions and projections of
future carbon sinks? [K. Keller]
ESSC Present
Examples of results obtained using
the ESSC cluster
Estimate of the climate sensitivity
The red region
denotes climate
sensitivities for
which the
probability of an
MOC collapse by
2150 is >10%.
Urban and Keller (2008)
Urban and Keller (2008)
Triggering a
threshold
response
can occur
much earlier
than
experiencing
one.
Probabilistic estimate of global terrestrial carbon parameters
using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity
Ricciuto et al (in prep, 2008)
Cobb et al. (2003) Coral Record
δ18O values from fossilized coral from Palmyra Island
a
a
Cobb et al. (2003)
Slide courtesy of Josh Dorin
What are the trends in the proxy record period?
•
Post-1850 record contains three
observations that are at or below
the lower limit of pre-1850
periods
•
A decrease in the mean period
from pre-1850 to post-1850 is
statistically significant (p < 0.1)
for a two-sided t-test and a
bootstrap resampling technique
Dorin et al (2008)
Grounding line migration in numerical ice-sheet models
Upper panel: Snapshot from a dynamic sealevel lowering and raising experiment with
new ice sheet-shelf model, showing the ice
profile and contoured velocities.
Lower panels: Time series of grounding line
position, sea level, ice flux across the
grounding line, and ice thickness at the
grounding line, through the 300 kyr duration
of the experiment. After sea level is restored
to its original value, the grounding line
recovers to exactly its original position (as
required by previously published theoretical
analysis by Schoof).
D. Pollard; Presented as a solicited talk at the European Geosciences Union, where results were discussed in the
context of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (Pollard and DeConto, 2007), and has contributed to NSF grants ATM 051342
and OPP/ANDRILL subaward 25-0500-0001-007.
Climate-soil chemistry modeling of Holocene loess
profiles
Annual mean
surface air
temperatures for
10 kyr BP from
the GENESIS
v2.3 GCM. The
purple rectangle
shows the
location of the
Mississippi Valley
transect where
the soil
geochemical
model is applied.
[D. Pollard In collaboration with J. Williams (PSU), S. Brantley (PSU) and Y.
Godderis (LMTG, Toulouse)]
RECENT ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Calov, R., R. Greve, P. Huybrechts, E. Bueler, D. Pollard, F. Pattyn and L. Tarasov, 2007. First results of the
ISMIP-HEINO model intercomparison project, European Geosciences Union, Vienna, Austria, abstract CR1401TH5P-0021.
Dorin, J.N., B.C. Tuttle, and K. Keller, 2007: Testing for anthropogenic ENSO modulation using millennial-scale
paleo-observations. Talk at the European Geophysical Union spring meeting, April 15, Vienna (Austria) (2007).
Miltich, L.I., D. M. Ricciuto, and K. Keller, 2007a: Which estimate of historic land use CO2 emissions makes
most sense given atmospheric and oceanic CO2 observations?, Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences,
in review, available at: http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kkeller/publications.html
Miltich, L.I., D. Ricciuto, and K. Keller, 2007b: A probabilistic assessment of historic carbon dioxide emissions
due to land use changes. Poster at the European Geophysical Union spring meeting, April 18, Vienna (Austria).
Pollard, D. and R.M. DeConto, 2007. Grounding line behavior in a heuristically coupled ice sheet-shelf model.
European Geosciences Union, Vienna, Austria, solicited talk CR150-1FR2O-001.
Williams, J.Z., D. Pollard and S.L. Brantley, 2006. Weathering reactions in soils on Peoria loess document mineral
weathering kinetics as a function of climate, Eos Trans. AGU, 87(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract H53B-0609.
Williams, J., D. Pollard, Y. Godderis, J. Bandstra, J. Schott and S. Brantley, 2007. Interpreting soil profiles
developed on loess using a GCM and a watershed weathering model. Abstract submitted to 2007 Goldschmidt
Conference, Cologne, Germany.
ESSC Future
General Circulation
Models (GCMs) take
into account the full
three-dimensional
structure of the
atmosphere and ocean
Projected Future Climate Change
Projected Future Climate Change
Wagner, Crane, Mann, Freeman
DOE (Pending)
TC COUNT
20
observed TCs (1870-2006)
statistical model (observations)
statistical model (GFDL CM2-0 RUN 1)
statistical model (GFDL CM2-0 RUN 3)
statistical model (NCAR CCSM3-0 RUN 1)
statistical model (GISS MODEL E-R RUN 1)
# of Storms
15
10
5
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
YEAR
Thomas Sabbatelli
(to begin Meteo IUG
masters program Fall
2008, jointly advised by
M. Mann and J. Evans)
1960
1980
2000
Fangxing Fan
(3rd year Meteo Ph.D.
student, advised by M.
Mann)
Projected Future Climate Change
CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
Sources of Uncertainty
Cloud
Radiative
Feedbacks
CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
The ‘commitment’ to
future warming
Sources of Uncertainty
Ice Sheet Collapse
Ocean Conveyor
Changes in the extent of the region of Greenland over which
summer melting has been observed(Russel Huff and and
Konrad Steffen, CIRES/Univ. Colorado)
‘Tipping Points’
Surface Temperature Changes
Mann, Zhang, et al, PNAS (accepted)
Surface Temperature Changes
Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., Climate Over Past
Millennia, Reviews of Geophysics, 42, RG2002,
doi:10.1029/2003RG000143, 2004.
USE EMICS!
Keller, Mann, Pollard, et al
(NOAA, pending)
Ryan Sriver
NOAA Climate and Global Change
Postdoctoral Fellowship Program
Sources of Uncertainty
El Nino
Sources of Uncertainty
El Nino
Influences Atlantic tropical Hurricanes,
Global Patterns of precipitation and
temperature, etc.
Predicted Change in Average State and Variability
of El NIno
El Nino/Southern Oscillation
Volcanic Forcing of El Nino?
Adams, J.B., Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Proxy evidence for an El Ninolike Response to Volcanic Forcing, Nature, 426, 274-278, 2003.
How did Natural Forcings Influence influence ENSO and
the Tropical Pacific During the Past Millennium?
Combined response to Solar
+Volcanic Forcing
Ensemble mean
Nino3 (100
realizations of CZ
model)
40 year
smooth
Palymra coral
isotopes (standardized
to have same mean and
standard deviation as
Nino3 composite series)
Mann, M.E., Cane, M.A., Zebiak, S.E., Clement, A., Volcanic and Solar
Forcing of The Tropical Pacific Over the Past 1000 Years, Journal of
Climate, 18, 447-456, 2005.
Keller, Mann, et al
(NSF, pending)
Thank you!