Transcript The Sustainability Network of Washington County January 27, 2010

The Sustainability Network of
Washington County
January 27, 2010
Jason Eisdorfer
Bonneville Power Administration
1
BPA Background

The Bonneville Power Administration is a federal agency based in the
Pacific Northwest.

BPA markets wholesale electric power from 31 federal hydro projects in
the Columbia River Basin, 1 nonfederal nuclear plant. About 1/3 of
electric power used in the Northwest comes from BPA.

BPA also operates and maintains the majority of the high-voltage
transmission in the US Pacific Northwest.

BPA’s service territory includes Idaho, Oregon, Washington, western
Montana and small parts of eastern Montana, California, Nevada, Utah
and Wyoming.
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Climate Change is a prime mover


Climate change by any other name: energy
security; clean energy; job growth, etc.
Two major implications of climate change:


The policy responses to climate change at the
international, national, regional & state levels.
The physical implications in the NW: stress on
salmon, sea-level rise, declining snowpack and
changes in hydrology, stress on forests
(Global Climate Change Impacts in the US –USGCRP)
3
Federal Drivers



Legislative
 ACES, Kerry-Boxer, Kerry-Graham-Lieberman,
Cantwell? Some form of cap and trade/dividend
 Or more incrementally: federal RPS and subsidies
Executive
 EPA: Endangerment, Clean Air Act
Judicial

2nd and 5th Circuit rulings on nuisance suits
4
State Drivers



States fill the void if Congress fails to act
Existing state policies kick in: Renewable
Portfolio Standards (*California), Emissions
Performance Standards, energy efficiency,
feed-in tariffs, California’s AB 32
States join the Western Climate Initiative
5
Cap and Trade in 12 Easy Steps

1. Set the cap. 2. Determine the rate of emissions decline. 3. Determine
the covered sectors, the point of regulation, and compliance obligations.
4. Determine the covered GHGs and how emissions will be measured and
monitored. 5. Create allowances equal to the amount of allowable
emissions each year. 6. Determine how to distribute those allowances:
either by auction and/or free allocation. 7. Set the market rules: who
regulates; who get to participate; linkages with other C&T programs. 8.
Consider cost containment mechanisms: offsets; banking and borrowing;
price cap or market reserve, etc. 9. Determine what to do with auction
revenues: to consumers; to energy efficiency programs; to R&D
programs; to reduce the federal deficit. 10. If using offsets, create program
that defines allowable offsets and how they are used for compliance. 11.
Enforce. 12. Hope it works.
6
CO2 Allowance Cost Estimates from
ACES
Recent Estimates of the Cost of CO2/ton*
*note : All estimates except 6th plan are based on implementation of the ACES Bill
All estimates are in constant $2006
200
80
180
72
EIA - High
160
64
$/Metric ton
56
Ntl. Assn. Mfctrs 48
Low
120
EPRI/Prism
100
40
CERA
80
32
EIA - Base
60
24
$/MWh Market Price Adder
(with gas on the margin)
Ntl. Assn. Mfctrs
- High
140
6th Power Plan
40
16
EPA 6/09
20
8
0
0
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14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Year (2000's)
7
McKinsey Cost Curve
8
Physical Effects
In the future, warmer temperatures would result in more
winter precipitation falling as rain rather than snow
in the Pacific Northwest
 less winter snow accumulation,
 higher winter streamflows,
 earlier spring snowmelt,
 lower summer streamflows (and less generation),
 and higher summer temperatures (and increased A/C
penetration) could increase summer peaking load.
9
Decreasing April 1 Snowpack 1950-2002
April 1 snowpack (a key indicator of natural water storage
available for the warm season) has declined throughout the
Northwest. In the Cascade Mountains, April 1 snowpack declined
by an average of 25 percent, with some areas experiencing up to
60 percent declines.
10
The Climate Change Challenge

Climate change is changing the business of electricity

State and federal policies will likely continue to promote
increased energy efficiency
transmission infrastructure
cleaner transportation
new technologies

new renewable energy development
smart grid
large energy storage
Important Effects on BPA




Hydrology (hydro generation) and Pacific Northwest loads
Costs and market prices
Integration of renewable resources and other technologies (ex. EV)
GHG reporting compliance
11
BPA getting ready

Short term


Medium term


Executive Order 13514; GHG Reporting; existing state
laws. Sustainability Team.
Climate change legislation/regulation; wind integration;
energy efficiency; transmission expansion; market carries
cost of carbon(?); resource tracking (Boardman) and
planning
Long term

Physical effects on hydrology; smart grid; EVs; storage;
technology innovation.
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