Transcript Copenhagen - 17 December - Institute for Environmental Security

Delivering Climate Security
COP 15 Side Event 12.00-1.30, 17th December 2009
CLIMATE CHANGE & THE MILITARY:
Actions Beyond Copenhagen
Tom Spencer
Vice Chairman, Institute for Environmental Security
Project Co-ordinator, Climate Change & The Military
The Military have expressed their legitimate
concern to see a robust climate regime
• What can they do to reduce their own bootprint?
• How fast can they reduce their dependence on
fossil fuels?
• How rapidly can military research budgets be
deployed?
Consolidating Military Interest –
Actions Beyond Copenhagen
• Is the time right to move beyond groupings of
retired officers, such as the Military Advisory
Council and the Military Advisory Board of CNA?
• How do we involve more countries? Specifically
China and Russia?
• How do we integrate the security implications of
climate change in to national military strategies?
Climate Change & Security is established as a
legitimate item on the international agenda,
• What should be the future relationship of the
issue to the UNFCCC?
• Should we seek actions in parallel outside the
UNFCCC?
• What is the ideal institutional home for the
debate?
Consolidating the case for Climate Change &
Security – Academic & Communication Aspects
• Address the doubts expressed about
Environmental Security as a discipline in the UN
Secretary General’s Report
• Stress urgency of the issue and the emerging
threat to infrastructure
• The need for a compelling narrative – the Third
Pole glaciers?
“Third Pole” Glacial Melt is an Asian, not a
South Asian, issue
• 22% of humanity rely on summer melt water
from the Hindu Kush / Himalayan / Tibet glaciers
• The great rivers of Asia: Yangtze-BrahmaputraGanges-Huang Ho-Indus-Mekong-Salween
• Glacial Melt Outburst Floods (GLOFs)
• Loss of summer melt water
• Loss of hydro-electric power schemes
• Changes to the Monsoon? Earthquakes? Extra
sea level rise
• Damage to Tibetan permafrost
The Military Implications are very worrying –
By 2050? By 2035? By 2020?
• Unrest in rural China – political stability of China
• Afghanistan & Pakistan – impact on existing wars
• India & Bangladesh – displacement & migration
• The diversion of the Brahmaputra – a casus belli?
Black Carbon is the Key
“It causes warming in two ways. First, Black Carbon in the
atmosphere absorbs solar radiation, which heats the
surrounding air; second, surface deposition of airborne Black
Carbon can darken snow and ice and accelerate melting. In
the Himalayan region, Ramanathan and Carmichael estimate
that solar heating from Black Carbon at high elevations may
be as important as CO2 for melting snow and ice. Their
model simulations indicate that approximately 0.6°C of the
1°C warming in the Tibetan Himalayas since the 1950s may
be due to atmospheric Black Carbon.”
Ramanathan V, Carmichael G, “Global and regional climate changes due to
black carbon”, NATURE GEOSCIENCE Volume 1, pp. 221–227, 2008.