Transcript Presentation_Netra Timsina

Climate Change in South
Asia: Trends and impacts
-Netra Timsina
Presented to seminar on Envisioning South Asia held on 18-19 January 2010 at Dhaka
Major River Basins on HKH
Climate change and and Hinskush : Complexity between
nature and politics
-Netra Timsina
Presented to Climate Conference 1-2 January 2010, Kathmandu organized by ANFPa , SAAPE
Rank
Country
China
Total
emission
(thousand metric
tons of emissions
6,103,493
Per
capita
emissions/Tons/Ca
pita
4.62
1
2
United States
5,752,289
18.99
3
Russia
1,564,669
10.92
4
India
1,510,351
1.31
5
Japan
1,293,409
10.11
6
Germany
805,090
9.74
7
United Kingdom
568,520
9.40
8
Canada
544,680
16.72
9
South Korea
475,248
9.89
10
Italy
474,148
8.06
Temperature trends in the Himalayas
Greater warming at higher
elevation –up to 0.32 deg C per
decade (Tibet)
Nepal annual range –0.04 to
0.06 deg C per decade greater
at higher elevation
Annual Mean-Maximum Temperature Trend for 1977–2000 in Nepal.
(After Shrestha et al., 1997)
1.2 degree celsius by 2030,
1.7 degree celcius by 2050
and
3.0 degree celcius by 2100
compare to pre 2000
baseline
Retreat of Glaciers in Himalayas
Rapid retreat of greater Himalayan glaciers in comparison to the global average (Source: Dyurgerov and Meier 2005).
Contribution of glacier in water resources
River basin
Mean Discharge
(m3/s)
Contribution of
Glacial melt in
river flow (%)
Water availability
per person
(m3/person/year)
Indus
5,553
44.8
978
Ganges
18,691
9.1
1,447
Brahmaputra
19,824
12.3
5,274
Irrawaddy
13,565
Unknown
13,089
Salween
1,494
8.8
7,876
Mekong
11,048
6.6
6,091
Yangtze
34,000
18.5
2,909
Yellow
1,365
1.3
292
Tarim
146
40.2
571
(Source: Xu et al., 2007)
The Melting Glaciers, Impacts on
availability of water
 As glaciers melt, river runoff will initially increase in
winter or spring but eventually will decrease as a result
of loss of ice resources
 This will be likely unfavourable for downstream
agriculture
 This could seriously affect half billion people in the
Hindu-Kush-Himalaya region and a quarter billion people
in China who depend on glacial melt for their water
supplies.
Melting Glaciers, Impacts on
availability of Water
• The current trends of glacial melts suggest that the
Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra and other rivers across
the northern Indian plain could likely become
seasonal rivers in the near future
• Between 20 and 40% reduction of runoff per capita in
NW provinces China is likely by the end of 21st
century
GLOF
• The most recent event was occurred in 1985,
when Dig Tsho, a lake in the headwaters of the
Koshi River, breached after an avalanche and
slid into the river, overtopping the dam. The
event destroyed hydro-electricity projects,
bridges, houses and farm land not only in
Nepal, but also to Bihar state of India (NCVST
ISET, 2009).
• The monitoring result of Shorong Himal since
1978 shows that the retreat until 1989 was 30
m, which is equivalent to 12 m thinning of the
glacier surface.
Glacier surface has further retreated by 14 m
after 1998.
Impact on agriculture
• Small peasants are most affected
• Decline in rainfall from November to April
adversely affect the winter and spring crops.
• Decline in food production has threatened to
the food security of people.
Climate change-natural phenomena vs
political complexity
Rise in temperature has
been the political
economic issues.
Political complexity…
The current debate about
keeping the temperature below 2
degree celcius has been tough
contestations between the poor
and rich and developing
countries’ political spheres
Political complexity
Stabilizing at 2 degree celcius require
major shift in lifestyle, a veritable
energy revolution and a
transformation on how we manage
land and forests.
Act now…
Act now,
act together and
act differently
-that are the steps that can put a climate smart
world within our reach.
Climate change: an issue of justice
Climate Justice