Transcript Россия и страны Центральной Азии

Россия и страны Центральной Азии:
анализ приоритетных мер по
адаптации к воздействиям
изменения климата
Кокорин Алексей Олегович
WWF Russia
[email protected]
+7 495 727 09 39
По материалам IPCC 4AR,
Государственных докладов
для РКИК ООН и последних
научных работ
WWF России
2008-2012 гг. подготовка и начало
выполнения
адаптационных мер
и планов
в России и странах
Центральной Азии
2008-2012 гг. -эффективное
выполнение Киотского
протокола и заключение нового
соглашения - снижение
глобальных выбросов
парниковых газов к 2050 г в 2
раза от уровня 1900 г.
Russia
N. Hemisphere
World
Russia: priorities for adaptation
measures in near future
Measures on infrastructure maintenance in permafrost melting areas
monitoring, inspections, building standards, timely reconstruction etc. Special
attention - oil pipelines, sanitary systems, indigenous people.
Regional measures to reduce damage of floods: monitoring, inspections,
construction standards, emergency plans and reserves, etc.
Special attention - St. Petersburg (floods and rising of underground water).
Medical, institutional and public awareness measures to prevent expansion of
infections and diseases; and to organize health care in heat waves. In South it
is mainly diarrhoeal and tropical diseases, in North - tick-born encephalitis and
some other infections.
Biodiversity protection in Arctic with special attention to Polar Bear and
marine mammals.
Local livestock measures in steppe and tundra in case of heavy snowfalls
and/or danger thaws/frost alterations.
Разрушение зданий и сооружений в
зоне вечной мерзлоты
Risk of permafrost melting and weakening for buildings and infrastructure
1 - small
risk
2 - middle
risk
3 - high
risk
Source: Anisimov
and Reneva, 2006;
calculations of the
basis of climate
scenario GFDL.
Arctic is melting and destroying
Arctic is melting and destroying
Dangerous weather events in Russia in
1991 – 2007
Increase in 2 times in 15 years in the past and in 10 years
in the future (4 times in 25 years)
70% Warm period
(Apr. – Oct.)
30% Cold period
(Nov. – March)
в сумме
Source: Roshydromet, 2005. Strategical forecast of climate change in
the Russian Federation on the period by 2010-2015 and its influence
on Russian economy
Data: VNIIGMI-MCD
2005 - 311
2006 - 387
2007 - 436
Общая проблема недостатка водных ресурсов
в странах Центральной Азии и в южных
регионах России
Consolidated forecast of changes in river run-off by 2050
Changes in percent of annual river run-off by 2041-2060
from the level of 1900-1970
Changes in productivity caused by climate
conditions in Russia by 2020
(deviations in percent of the current level).
Calculations by 2020 for different regions on the basis of scenario HadCM3 A1FI
(Hedley Center, UK Meteorological Service, Materials, 2005).
Cereals
10
Increase
Decrease
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Regions:
1- North,
2– North – West,
3- Kaliningrad,
4- Center,
5- Center-Chernozem,
6- Upper Volga,
7- Middle Volga,
8- Lower Volga,
9- North Caucasus,
10- Ural,
11- West Siberia,
12 – East Siberia,
13- Far East.
Changes in productivity caused by climate
conditions in Russia by 2020
(deviations in percent of the current level).
Calculations by 2020 for different regions on the basis of scenario HadCM3 A1FI
(Hedley Center, UK Meteorological Service, Materials, 2005).
Forage
Increase
15
Decrease
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Regions:
1- North,
2– North – West,
3- Kaliningrad,
4- Center,
5- Center-Chernozem,
6- Upper Volga,
7- Middle Volga,
8- Lower Volga,
9- North Caucasus,
10- Ural,
11- West Siberia,
12 – East Siberia,
13- Far East.
Central Asia: joint priorities
for adaptation measures in near future
Improvement of water management system
Measures to improve outdate irrigation systems and
reduce water losses (details country by country)
Central Asia: joint priorities
for adaptation measures in near future
Measures to survive Aral Sea and solve ecological and
socio-economic problems in Amy-Daria River delta,
including coordination of water management
(Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan).
Protection of plain-flooded forests/bulrush (tugays) –
key role in biodiversity adaptation. Recognize problem,
ensure river run-off regime and water spillage, give
opportunity of self-restoration (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan
and Turkmenistan - Amy-Daria River; Kazakhstan – SyrDaria River).
Aral Sea shrinking
Map as of 1957 (map) and satellite images of the different years (sp)
Source: (Glants and Zonin, WMO 2005)
Aral Sea shrinking
Current state
Source: (Glants and Zonin, WMO 2005)
Pessimistic future
Kazakhstan: additional national
priorities for adaptation measures
Comprehensive measures in agriculture, including
prevention of erosion, pest’s outbreaks,
implementation of climate impact resistant kinds of
crops, and legislation
Improvement of water management system on rice
fields and in the country as a whole with special
attention to water resource management in
Ili River basin to avoid danger increase in salinity of
Balhash Lake
Kyrgyzstan: additional national
priorities for adaptation measures
Measures to stabilize level of Issyk-Kul Lake:
construction of modern irrigation systems in basin of
the lake, technical researches and economic feasibility
studies on diversion of runoff, attraction of
investments in recreation development enforcing
nature protection, legal measures
Medical, institutional and public awareness measures
to prevent outbreaks and expansion of infections and
diseases; and to organize health care in heat waves.
Tajikistan : additional national
priorities for adaptation measures
Measures on infrastructure maintenance in higher
intensity and frequency of floods, mudflows, landslides
and avalanches: monitoring, inspections, building and
road standards, timely reconstruction etc. Special
attention should be paid for high mountain roads and
settlements. International aid is required for effective
adaptation.
Medical, institutional and public awareness measures
to prevent outbreaks and expansion of infections and
diseases; and to organize health care in heat waves.
Turkmenistan: additional national
priorities for adaptation measures
Measures to improve outdate irrigation systems and
reduce water losses. Reconstruction of large-scale
Karakum irrigation channel and its internal reservoirs.
Afforestation measures to prevent soil erosion and
improve desert pastures and other lands.
Uzbekistan : additional national
priorities for adaptation measures
Measures to improve outdate irrigation systems and
reduce water losses. Construction of water storage
reservoirs in mountain rivers
Agriculture measures: crops structure improvement, use
of advanced agro-technologies, improvement of pastures
in arid areas, avoiding overgrazing
Вывод Четвертого Оценочного Доклада МГЭИК,
2007: Хотя многие негативные воздействия могут
быть ослаблены с помощью адаптации, в
конечном счете с экономической и экологической
точек зрения надо ограничить само изменение
климата – снизить выбросы парниковых газов
www.simonchristy.com/archive/2006_08_01_archive.html
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
Save good climate for our
children!
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