Transcript The global environment

Today
 General remarks
 The science and politics of global warming
 Dealing with global warming: the Kyoto Protocol &
beyond
General remarks
Philosophy, science, economics &
politics
 Philosophy
 Science
 Economics
 Politics
Precautionary principle
“When an activity raises threats of
harm to human health or the
environment, precautionary
measures should be taken even if
some cause and effect relationships
are not fully established
scientifically. In this context the
proponent of an activity, rather than
the public, should bear the burden
of proof.”
An integrated system
Sun / heat
The biosphere
Sun / heat
+ meteorites
+ meteorites
Atmosphere
Outer space
Outer space
Water
Soil
Plant life
Sun / heat
Animal life
Sun / heat
+ meteorites
Microorganisms
+ meteorites
Humans
Soil
Outer space
Outer space
Water
Atmosphere
Sun / heat
+ meteorites
The environment & global
politics: Some milestones
 1972: UN Conference of the Human Environment
 1987: the Brundtland Report is published
 1992: UN Conference on Environment and
Development (a.k.a. Rio Summit, Earth Summit)
 2002: World Summit on Sustainable Development
(a.k.a. Rio+10, Johannesburg Summit)
Sustainable development:
An elusive (or illusory?) goal
Economy
Growth, jobs, rising incomes,
consumption
Equitable
world
Viable
world
?
Environment
No disruption of nature
Liveable
world
Social
Social & economic equality
Sustainable development
according to the
Brundtland Report
“… the development that
meets the needs of the
present without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their
own needs,” Brundtland
Commission, Our Common
Future, p. 43.
World population growth,
A.D. 0 to 2011
Year
Population (est.)
Year
Population (est.)
0
1000
1250
1500
1750
1800
300,000,000
310,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
790,000,000
980,000,000
1850
1900
1950
2000
2011
1,260,000,000
1,650,000,000
2,520,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
23-fold increase
The ecological
footprint
Look it up for specific countries
2008
2008
See 1961
The ecological footprint
& the Human Development Index
Major issues
 Drinking water
 Desertification & farmland scarcity
 Deforestation
 Loss of biodiversity & genetic diversity
 Global warming
The science & politics
of global warming
The issue
 Greenhouses gases
(GHGs)
Key GHGs
- water vapour
- carbon dioxide
(CO2)
- methane
- nitrous oxide
- chlorofluorocarbons
- tropospheric
ozone
Not included in graph:
water vapour
 From coal, oil & gas
burning
Generated by humans
 Temperature rise
(see Annexes 1 & 2)
 “Carbon equivalent”
measurements
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html
There is an acceleration
of the warming trend
1961-1990 average
Source: IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Geneva: IPCC.
West Antarctica Ice Sheet
Winter ice limit
Greenland summer thaw 1992-2007
1992
2002
2007
+21ft
+16ft
Major environmental transformation
with significant consequences
 Life & property destroyed
 Conflict for access to land & water
 Migration
 Costly adaptation (some can’t)
 International cooperation necessary
Dealing with global warming:
The Kyoto Protocol & beyond
NB: Most graph & maps in this section come from: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Geneva: IPCC, 2008)
Next update: 2014
The Kyoto Protocol, 1997-2012
 Signed Dec. ’97, in effect Feb. ’05
 38 industrial countries agree to
 5.3% reduction in GHG below 1990 level by 2012
 or 29% below predictions for 2012
 A major economic issue
 change of lifestyle for industrial country people
 reluctance of developing countries to give up cheap energy
 massive expensive investment in new technologies
 Most governments unwilling to take bold first steps
Change by
country
*
 Increases in some
West European
countries, US &
Canada
 Decrease in some
West European
countries and all
East European
countries
* LULUCF: land-use, land-use change and
forestry
Depending on agriculture and tree-cutting the
amount of carbon released varies throughout the
All these countries
are supposed to
be at minus 5.2% by 2012
(on average)
Projected GHGs emissions for developed vs.
Developing countries
Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Carbon-equivalent emissions per
person per year by country, 2007
Scientific evidence
& the struggle for public opinion
Common skeptics’ arguments
• Absence of scientific consensus
• Models are not reliable
• Sun’s activity causes warming
• Temperature records are imprecise
• Warming or cooling is not new
 Global warming skeptics/deniers
 IPCC peer review process
 arguments against global warming
 “Climategate”: 2009 hacking into scientists’ email
 The credibility of spokespersons
 Al Gore’s business interests
 IPCC chairman’s idiosyncracies (vegetarian & amateur
poet)
 errors in the IPCC report
Dealing with global warming:
Emissions trading permits
 “Cap-and-trade”
 Putting a ceiling on GHG emissions
 GHG trading market
+ fines
 Rationale
Dealing with climate change:
Carbon tax
 Putting a price on GHG : polluter pay principle
 Making polluting technologies unattractive
 A revenue-neutral tax
 Hard to implement
 Hard to sell to voters: “It’s a freakin’ tax grab!”
Conclusions
 Global problems caused by human actions
 Billions of people affected
 A slow motion catastrophe
 Requiring
 change in outlook
 change in behaviour
 international cooperation
 Progress is slow (see Annex 3)
Annex 1:Global warming by Earth zones
Source: IPCC. (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Geneva: IPCC.
(Arctic)
+ 0.45
+ 0.6
+ 0.3
+ 0.4
(Antarctic)
+ 0.3
+ 1.45
Annex 2: Temp changes at ground
level and in the troposphere
Temperatures change from 1979-2005 measured at ground level (surface)
and in the troposphere (atmosphere below 8,000-15,000 m)
Source: IPCC. (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Geneva: IPCC.
Annex 3: Beyond the Kyoto Protocol:
Copenhagen & Cancun summits
 Copenhagen summit (2009)
 no replacement for Kyoto Protocol
 agreed to limit temp increase to 2°C
 recognized the scientific case
 set no targets
 set no peak date for emissions
 set no deadline for an agreement
 did not address deforestation
 Cancun summit (2010)
 develop adaptation mechanisms
 reporting of mitigation efforts
 $30bn for developing countries for 2010-12
 $100bn by 2020
 technology transfer to LDCs
 capacity-building in LDCs
Source: Toonpool.com