Transcript here - EPPSA

Power Market, Technologies & Acceptance:
Status & Perspectives
VGB Congress “Power Plants 2011”
Bern, Switzerland
Franz-Josef Mengede
EPPSA President
www.eppsa.eu
Outline
• About EPPSA
• Policy instruments for energy & climate change
• Power generation demand & Technologies
• Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers
• Conclusions
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Outline
• About EPPSA
• Policy instruments for energy & climate change
• Power generation demand & Technologies
• Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers
• Conclusions
Page 3
VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
About EPPSA
The European Power
Plant Suppliers Association (EPPSA)
is the voice, at European level, of companies supplying power plants, components and services.
EPPSA members, located throughout Europe, represent a leading sector of technology with
more than 100.000 employees and annual revenue of over 20 billion euro.
Virtually all existing Power Plants in the EU have either components from or were
built by EPPSA Members
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
About EPPSA
This leading technology sector has more than 100 000 employees
and an annual revenue of over €20 billion
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Outline
• About EPPSA
• Policy instruments for energy & climate change
• Power generation demand & Technologies
• Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers
• Conclusions
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Policy instruments for energy & climate change
1997
Adoption of the Kyoto Protocol setting binding targets for reducing GHG to an average of 5%
against 1990 levels by 2012
2007
The EU Heads of State and Government set the "20-20-20" targets including a reduction in EU
greenhouse gas emissions of at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020
They have also offered to increase the EU’s emissions reduction to 30% by 2020 on condition that
other major emitting countries commit to do their fair share under a legally -binding
international climate agreement
2009
The Copenhagen Accord endorses for the first time at global level the objective of keeping
warming to less than 2°C above the pre-industrial temperature
2010
European Commission publishes a communication which revisits the analysis of the implications
of the different levels of ambitions (20% and 30% targets) and assesses the risk of carbon leakage
2011
European Commission adopts communication A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon
economy in 2050 setting out a plan to meet the long-term target of reducing domestic emissions
by 80 to 95% by 2050
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Policy instruments for energy & climate change
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY – COPENHAGEN & CANCUN
• Global temperature increase shall not exceed 2 °C
• Greenhouse gas emissions to be limited – concentration
of CO2 equivalent to be stabilised at 450 ppm
• Legally binding targets not defined
• Even not a process to implement binding targets is foreseen
The IPCC recommends 50 to 80 %
reduction in global CO2 emissions by 2050
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Policy instruments for energy & climate change
EU GHG emissions over time for selected scenarios
Source: Impact Assessment - Accompanying document to the Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and
Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050, PRIMES, GAINS, European Commission, 2011
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Policy instruments for energy & climate change
EU ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY
“Climate and Energy Package”
the 20 – 20 – 20 rule became law in June 2009
• A reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions of at least 20%
below 1990 levels by 2020
• Increasing the share of renewable energy to 20% by 2020
• Improving the EU’s energy efficiency by 20% by 2020
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Policy instruments for energy & climate change
Energy efficiency & renewables could deliver
2/3 of the required emissions reduction
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Policy instruments for energy & climate change
Losses along the value chain offer significant
energy efficiency opportunities
Source: Graphics and pictures
courtesy of EPPSA members
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Policy instruments for energy & climate change
But…
reducing energy savings by 20% was never a binding target…
Proposal for a Directive on Energy Efficiency
Shall tackle 3 major issues impeding improvement of energy efficiency…
* fragmented regulations and incentives to address
waste across supply chain;
* low level of CHP use across the EU regardless fuel savings of 30%
for the same amount of heat & power
* Best Available Techniques are not always reflected by new
installations
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Outline
• About EPPSA
• Policy instruments for energy & climate change
• Power generation demand & Technologies
• Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers
• Conclusions
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Power generation demand & Technologies
Worldwide
Source: IEA
EU
Source: Eurostat, IEA, VGB
Source: VGB Powertech, Electricity Generation - Facts & Figures 2010-2011
Fossil fuels remain the backbone of global electricity generation
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Power generation demand & Technologies
EU 27
Source: DG TREN, European Commission, EU-27 Energy Baseline scenario Trends to 2030 – update 2007 (2008)
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Power generation demand & Technologies
New fossil fuel plants are needed by 2020
Period 2010 -2020
110
100
90
80
GW
Back-up: 30
Back-up: 60
70
60
50
40
30
New: 91
New: 185
Coal 800 MW Units
Gas 400 MW Units
20
10
0
Source: DG TREN, European Commission, EU-27 Energy Baseline scenario Trends to 2030 – update 2007 (2008)
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Power generation demand & Technologies
The EU needs a
balanced energy
mix
renewable
energy
295.000 MW
nuclear power
plants
10.000 MW
fossil fired
power plants
170.000 MW
Source: VGB, VDMA and BDEW, Press release VGB study reveals: Until
2020 power plant capacities of 475,000 MW have to be erected (September
2009)
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Power generation demand & Technologies
...and all kinds of technologies
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Outline
• About EPPSA
• Policy instruments for energy & climate change
• Power generation demand & Technologies
• Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers
• Conclusions
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers
Power landscape – facing new complexities
Source: Graphics and pictures courtesy of EPPSA members
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers
Uncertainty has ruled the suppliers market since 1960s
18000
MW (average)
Deregulation NAP II
16000
Financial crisis
14000
12000
Coal
10000
8000
6000
4000
Gas
2000
0
1961
1967
1973
1979
1985
1991
1997
2003
Year of commissioning
Source: RWE, Dr. M. Kehr
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
2009
2015
2020
2030
Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers
Engineering resources based on uncertainty
*business as usual*
1)
Figures for engineering resources are indicative to show relations only
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers
Steady commissioning based on certainty and long-term business strategy
*EPPSA scenario*
1)
Figures for engineering resources are indicative to show relations only
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers
In Germany 17,630 MW coal-fired power
stations were planned.
But a capacity of more than 10,000 MW
was stopped.
Example: Datteln Unit 4
 1050 MWel, bituminous coal fired
 Efficiency over 45%
 Designed to replace 3 old power plant
blocks
 CO2 saving of 500 000 t/a
 State-of-the-art environment standards
 Local population demanded a halt to
the Higher Administrative Court
 The Court blocked two partial
construction permits.
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Outline
• About EPPSA
• Policy instruments for energy & climate change
• Power generation demand & Technologies
• Boundaries to Power Plant suppliers
• Conclusions
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Conclusions
•
Electricity demand in EU27 will increase to 2030 and beyond
•
Many new fossil fuel plants are needed by 2020
•
Only a continuous ordering of new plants retains suppliers know how
•
CO2 emissions from fossil plants must be cut to meet EU targets
–
efficiency increase is the fastest track to cut down CO2
–
existing and new plants need the CO2 capture
•
Reliable and shorter permit procedures are crucial
•
A stable legal framework requires matching implementation at national level
•
Public acceptance of new energy infrastructure is needed
“The role of public policy is to generate the enabling environment for private
sector financing to leverage investments into low carbon investments that
often will increase long term productivity and to create new markets”*
* Brussels, 8.3.2011, SEC(2011) 288 final. IMPACT ASSESSMENT. Accompanying document to the COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN
PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EURPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS, A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low
carbon economy in 2050.
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Conclusions
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
THANK YOU
FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
EPPSA – European power Plant Suppliers Association
Avenue Adolphe Lacomblé 59 | B - 1030 Brussels
Tel: +32 2 743 2986 | Fax: +32 2 743 2990
[email protected]
www.eppsa.eu
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VGB Congress "Power Plants 2011", BERN, 22nd September 2011
Secretary General: Patrick Clerens
[email protected]
Policy Officer: Maria João Duarte
[email protected]