Transcript Climate Futures for Tasmania

Climate Futures for Tasmania:
Prospects, Impacts and Information for
Adaption Options
Nathan Bindoff et al.
ACE CRC, DPIW, Hydro Tasmania,SES,BoM, GA, TIAR, TPAC,
CSIRO MAR
Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Best estimate for
low scenario (B1)
is 1.8°C (likely
range is 1.1°C to
2.9°C), and for
high scenario
(A1FI) is 4.0°C
(likely range is
2.4°C to 6.4°C).
Broadly
consistent with
span quoted for
SRES in TAR, but
not directly
comparable
Research Modules
Research activities
•Fine scale climate projections
•Modelling water flows and reservoirs
•Key climate variables
•Planning, agriculture,
•utility sectors and environment
•Extreme events
•Changes in occurrence
•Consequence of change
•Eg drought, flood, frosts, heat waves
Storms/winds
Tasmania Water Catchment Models
AWBM
Assumption: no change in land use
Assumption: no change in land use
Example: Hydro Tasmania Inflow
Prediction
Most important lake
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
 Factor of 1.0 represents
no change in inflows
Arthur's Lake
Great Lake
Trevallyn Dam
 Factors <1.0 represents
drying
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
 Factors >1.0 represents
wetter
Jan
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Lake Burbury
Lake Mackintosh
Feb
Mar
Apr
 Great Lake factors well
below 1.0 and thus
drying predicted
 Others have drier
Summers/Autumns and
wetter Winters
Lake Rowallan
Jan
Dec
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Key Outputs
 Outputs/Products


General Climate Impacts

Assessments of climate conditions through 2100

Mean trends in key variables

Changes in climate variables (winds, heat waves, rainfall)

Reports
General Agricultural Impacts

Assessments of impacts of climate on key agricultural
sectors through 2100

Changes in frost and their impacts

Crop models and disease models, and impacts of climate
change

Strategies for adaptation (economic modeling)

Reports to the wider community.

Extreme Events
Key Outputs
 Outputs/Products


Extreme Events (on land, and on sea-level)

Risk of winds on infrastructure (eg residential, commercial and
industrial)

Assessments of storm surges and sea-level on extreme sea level
returns for Tasmania through 2100

Strategies for adaption

Reports
Water and Water Catcements

Assessments of impacts on water and water catchments through
2100

Hydro Tasmania, dam and reservoir capacity (and hence yields)

DPIW and Hydro Tasmania stream flow and water availability

SES, provide data for updating flood and flood inundation maps

Strategies for adaption

Reports
Perceived unfunded gaps
 Bushfires (Bushfire CRC/GA are interested)
 Landslip and soils (depends on extreme rainfall)
 Impacts and risks of heat waves, flooding on built
assets
 Risks for power generation
 Risks for natural environment
 Risks for forests
 Risks for river and catchment chemistry
 Economics aspects in this framework.
Introduction
 The Players
 Key user questions
 Research Activities
 Downscaling and global signals

Tasmanian context
 Research outcome and outputs
 Resources
Key User Questions:Climate Change
•Water policy and legislation
•Water management and infrastructure
•Power Generation
•Reservoirs, winds
•Power Distribution (heat waves)
•Emergency planning
•Bushfires, floods
•Protection of high value assets
•From tourism
•Impacts on power and water
dependent industry
•Agriculture
•Crops, wine, other horticulture, disease
•Sea level surges
•(from wind changes)
The Players
Fine Scale Climate Projections
What is downscaling
•CCAM – Cubic Conformal Atmosphere
Model
• CSIRO MAR (John McGregor)
•Validation phase
•IPCC – models are used
•Interpolation of pre-existing IPCC
scenarios
Example from South West Australia
Example: Hydro Tasmania Inflow
Prediction
Most important lake
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
 Factor of 1.0 represents
no change in inflows
Arthur's Lake
Great Lake
Trevallyn Dam
 Factors <1.0 represents
drying
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
 Factors >1.0 represents
wetter
Jan
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Lake Burbury
Lake Mackintosh
Feb
Mar
Apr
 Great Lake factors well
below 1.0 and thus
drying predicted
 Others have drier
Summers/Autumns and
wetter Winters
Lake Rowallan
Jan
Dec
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Resources
 5 new postdoctoral fellows, 1 liason officer, project
management team
 Engagement of skills and expertise from the
consortia members, including Tasmanian State
Departments and business enterprises
 $8 million over three years (cash + inkind)
 Data Management (TPAC Digital Library)
 Potential Collaborations

CERF funded projects

Other initiatives (eg SEACI).
Climate models, and climate model credibility
Observations 1980-2000
Mean Model 1980-2000
Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Best estimate for
low scenario (B1)
is 1.8°C (likely
range is 1.1°C to
2.9°C), and for
high scenario
(A1FI) is 4.0°C
(likely range is
2.4°C to 6.4°C).
Broadly
consistent with
span quoted for
SRES in TAR, but
not directly
comparable
Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Tasmania
• Precipitation increases are very likely in high latitudes in 2090-2099
• Decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions in 2090-2099
Figure SPM-6, TS-30, 10.9
Drought is increasing most places
The most
important spatial
pattern (top) of
the monthly
Palmer Drought
Severity Index
(PDSI) for 1900
to 2002.
The time series
(below) accounts
for most of the
trend in PDSI.