Transcript climate resilient development

Integrated Land and Water Management:
Biophysical, Environmental, Social, Policy Issues
Erick Fernandes
Adviser, Agriculture and Rural Development,
The World Bank, Washington, DC.
Sustaining a growing population
• 75% of the world’s poor live
in rural areas in developing
countries, and most depend
on agriculture for their
livelihoods.
• To achieve food security,
agriculture production must
double to feed 9 billion
people by 2050- while
increasing agriculture’s
contribution to mitigating
GHG emissions and
adapting to CC
There Is a New Dimension to World Bank Goal of
“Sustainable Development”
Until Recently
 Poverty Reduction and Economic Growth
 Environmental Sustainability
 Social Sustainability
Now: Transformational shift to include
+ Climate Sustainability
• Adaptation - climate resilient development
• Mitigation - transition to low carbon development
Climate change will affect the natural and managed
systems – hydrology, forests, wetlands, coral reefs,
agriculture, and fisheries – that societies depend on
for food, fuel, and fiber for safety, and for many
other things.
WDR 2010: DEVELOPMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
Increase in frequency of extreme events likely
Baettig, Wild, and Imboden (2007) A climate change index: Where climate change may be
most prominent in the 21st century. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34.
The Agricultural Landscape is Part of the
Challenge and Part of the Solution
Sources of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
(Data from CAIT, WRI)
Transportation
12%
Other Energy
Sector
13%
Agricultu
reLandUse
Change
&
Forestry
31%
Manufacturing
&
Construction
11%
Electricity &
Heat
27%
Agricultural Landscapes
have the potential, through
better management to
reduce up to 88% of
Waste
3%
Industrial
Processes
3%
agriculture’s total annual
emissions - 70% of this
from developing countries.
SLM can improve the productivity and resilience of
agricultural landscapes and increase food security
while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Production Landscapes
Watershed to Basin Scales
Climate – Landsurface – Water Cycle (2)
Climate and landscape structure
Water and “stuff” movement
Basin Cell
Quickflow from
Impervious Surfaces
Ground surface
Vertical
Unsaturated
Flow
Channel
Segment
Flow
Ci,in Qinflow
Crunoff Qrunoff
Overland Flow
Saturated Subsurface Flow
Soil column
Csoilwater
Qsubflow
Channel Segment Flow
Ci Qoutflow
Se
e
gm
nt
i
Land Use Impacts – Tradeoffs?
Climate Change Adaptation = Good
Development
• Promoting growth and diversification
• Investing in R&D, education and health
• Promoting forest, watershed, and sustainable
land use management
• Creating markets in water and environmental
services (carbon, biodiversity, hydrology)
• Enhancing resilience to disasters and
improving disaster management
• Promoting risk management and
risk-sharing, including social safety nets
Mitigation and Adaptation
Are linked
Mitigation in agriculture could have either:
• (a) positive adaptation consequences (such as carbon
sequestration projects with positive drought preparedness aspects)
or
• (b) negative adaptation consequences (for example, if heavy
dependence on biomass energy reduces hydrological flows or
increases the sensitivity of energy supply to climatic extremes).
Adaptation-driven actions also have both
• (a) positive mitigation consequences (as when residue returned
to fields to improve water-holding capacity also sequesters carbon)
or
• (b) negative mitigation consequences (for example, an increased
use of nitrogen fertilizer to overcome falling yield that leads to
increased nitrous oxide emissions).
[email protected]
http://www.riversystems.washington.edu/zambezi_dif
Mainstreaming Climate Change
Adaptation in Irrigated Agriculture
Project in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
WB/GEF 黄淮海地区适应气候变化农业开发(MACC)项目
基础
--科学
Effects of landuse change on the hydrologic regime of
The Mae Chaem river basin, NW Thailand
Thanapakpawin et al (in press) J. of Hydrology*
4000 km2/Sparse Data
Thanapakpawin et al (in press) J. of Hydrology
*NSF, BNPP Functional Value of Biodiversity
Does logging and shifting cultivation by hill tribes
cause the severe dry-season water supply shortage,
and result in the watershed degradation such as soil
and nutrient loss, as has been claimed?
And/or :
On the other hand, does lowland water demand from
increasing stream water diversion for the growing dryseason irrigated agriculture act as a constraint on
water availability?
Mainstreaming Climate Change
Adaptation in Irrigated Agriculture
Project in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
WB/GEF 黄淮海地区适应气候变化农业开发(MACC)项目
基础
--科学
LAKE VICTORIA BASIN DYNAMIC INFORMATION
FRAMEWORK (LVDIF):
Towards Baselines and Integration for LVEMP II
Lake Victoria Environment Management Program II
Strengthen regional and national institutions for governance of the
transboundary resources in the Lake Victoria Basin; and facilitate
public and private environmentally friendly investments in the LVB
Developing a Functional Landscape-Scale Land Cover,
Biodiversity, Hydrology Modeling Framework (DrukDIF)
for the SLMP areas of Bhutan
NEXT STEPS IN WBG Investments
Empowering local institutions and communities with geospatial and time
referenced tools and incentives for:
•Conserving, better understanding, and using traditional and cultural
knowledge.
•Improved NRM approaches,
•Adaptation to Climate Change,
•Preparation for climate variability and extreme events,
•Objective monitoring of progress based on quantitative indicators, and
• Better and more resilient livelihoods.
User-Friendly
Decision
Support Systems
“Virtual Scaled
Basin”: Cyber-infrastructure
Linking Policy Makers with Land and Water Users
The World Bank is Helping Developing
Countries Adapt to the Unavoidable

Concessional Financing






Drought resistant crops
Managing scarce water
Preparing communities
Protecting forests and ecosystems
Improving energy access
Catastrophic Weather Insurance
Climate Resilient
Development

Research



2010 World Development
Report
Economics of Adaptation
Coastal Cities
22
Pro-Poor Instruments
• Integrated Land & Water Management (Soil
carbon, avoided deforestation, Rehabilitation of
degraded lands)
• Capacity strenghtening (regional, national, local)
• Methodologies and transaction costs
–
–
–
–
New science and new technologies
Improved temporal and spatial resolution
Better handle on assessing tradeoffs
Empowering communities with knowledge and access
to technologies (early warning, decision support,
relocation, infrastructure…)
Climate Funds & SLM
Carbon
Funds (CF)
Climate
Investment
Funds (CIF)
$5-6 billion*
Existing
Funds
(9)
Prototype
Carbon
support,
Spanish
Fund, etc.
~$2 billion
Carbon
Partnership
Facility
(CPF)
Expected $3$5 billion
Forest
Carbon
Partnership
Facility
(FCPF)
$100 million
(readiness)
Ghana, Gabon,
Kenya, DRC,
Liberia and
Madagascar
+ $200 million
Clean
Technology
Fund (CTF)
$5 billion*
($500-700 million
for Africa)
Scaled-up
Mitigation
Mitigation under UNFCCC
framework
* As per November 2008 trustee report
Big 5
China, India,
Brazil,
Mexico, South
Africa
(+ 5-10
additional)
Strategic Climate
Fund (SCF)
$2 billion*
Pilot Program
for Climate
Resilience
(PPCR)
$500 million
Forest
Investment
Fund (FIF)
Target: $500
million
Climate
resilience
Short term
financing
Niger, Zambia,
Mozambique ($3070 million each)
Sustainable
forest
management
(complement
of FCPF)
Under
Design
Scaling-up
Renewable
Energy
Program for
Low-Income
Countries
(SREP) Target:
$250Million
Mitigation
Pilot Program
under
preparation
WDR 2010: DEVELOPMENT IN A CHANGING
CLIMATE
• Inform development policy: Climate change does
represent a changing climate for development
• Inform climate policy: Unless development realities are
integrated into climate change agreements, such agreements will fail
• Refocus the vision of sustainable
development: Increase understanding of how development
policy should be designed in a greenhouse world
3 new developments related to climate change have the
potential to accelerate innovation and encourage societies
to adopt new LAND & WATER management approaches
and to undertake difficult policy reforms:
1. The increase in food prices
2. Payments to store carbon in soil and the
broader landscape
3. Transforming subsidies for agriculture to
subsidies for climate-smart activities
WDR 2010: DEVELOPMENT IN A CHANGING
CLIMATE
Thank you!
[email protected]
The Zambezi River in Mozambique