Transcript Dan Hamza-Goodacre

What Are Policy Makers Doing?
SIAS Meeting
12 August 2008
Dan Hamza-Goodacre – Adapting to Climate Change
Programme, DEFRA
Aims
• Share the following information about the
Government’s work on adapting to climate
change to inform the APCC working party:
• Understanding of the risks
• The potential impacts/costs
• What the Government is doing
• Discussion points
Aims
• Understanding of the risks
• The potential impacts/costs
• What the Government is doing
• Discussion points
3
Anticipated Increase in UK Summer Temperatures:
By the 2040s, 2003 will be “normal”
2060s
Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C
observations
HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2)
2040s
2003
5
Hadley Centre
Significantly increased flood risk
England/Wales 2004 - 2080
A global perspective – the less mitigation the
more adaptation will be required
Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
0°C
1°C
Food
2°C
3°C
4°C
5°C
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly
developing regions
Falling yields in many
Possible rising yields in some
developed regions
high latitude regions
Water
Small glaciers
disappear – water
supplies threatened in
several areas
Significant decreases in water
availability in many areas,
including Mediterranean and
Southern Africa
Sea level rise threatens
major cities
Ecosystems
Extensive Damage
to Coral Reefs
Extreme
Weather
Rising number of species face extinction
Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves
Risk of Abrupt and
Major Irreversible
Changes
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt,
large-scale shifts in the climate system
The risk of serious irreversible impacts increases strongly as
temperatures increase
Stern Review (2006)
7
Aims
• Understanding of the risks
• The potential impacts/costs
• What the Government is doing
• Discussion points
8
Domestic Impacts
•
Health and Welfare: c40,000 premature deaths across Europe and 2,000 in UK in 2003
heatwave
•
NHS: Extreme heat leads to extra burdens on NHS – in Hampshire alone they saw 2,000
extra hospital days in summer 2003
•
Transport: In 2003, heat caused 165,000 delay minutes (Summer 2004 - 30,000) on the
railways
•
Emergency Services: Between 1986 and 1993 there were on average 37,371 grassland
and heathland blazes a year in Britain. But in the 11 years from 1994 to 2005 the average
rose to 60,332 a year.
•
2007 floods led to over £3billion in insurance claims
•
Changes in biodiversity (loss of common scoter duck, gain wall lizard)
9
Potentially significant impact on economy and
infrastructure…
Increased storm activity/extreme
weather events
Melting roads/road safety
Increased
Rainfall/Flooding
Urban heat island
effect/overheating
Infrastructural
damage /
Increased rainfall/
flooding
10
International Impacts
Projected impacts around the world:
•
By the end of this century global average temperatures could rise by between
1.7 and 4°C (compared with current temperatures)
•
By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people in Africa are projected to be
exposed to an increase in water stress due to climate change.
•
Approximately 20-30% of species are likely to at increased risk of extinction if
global average temperature exceeds 1.5-2degC
•
Brazil's soya exports could slump by more than a quarter over the next 12 years
as the result of climate change. (FT 11 August 2008).
•
Each year hundreds of millions more people will be subject to coastal flooding
due to climate change induced sea-level rise.
11
Costs of Climate Change
Example: A Foresight study (2004), estimated rise in annual flooding damage from
£1.4bn now to as much as £27bn by 2080 if action is not taken. But with effective
flood risk measures we could reduce these risks down to around £2 billion pa.
Aims
• Understanding of the risks
• The potential impacts/costs
• What the Government is doing
• Discussion points
13
Responding to climate change
Three principle strategies:
• Mitigation of GHG emissions
• Adaptation to unavoidable climatic impacts
• Contingency planning and emergency
response
14
Adaptation - Definitions and Options
•
Adaptation is any adjustment in natural or human systems in response
to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates
harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.
•
Extent we need to adapt depends on:
1.
How the climate changes (thus depends on global mitigation)
2.
Vulnerability
3.
Appetite for risk (public, ie regulation, and private)
•
There are different options for adapting, eg protect (install air con in
schools), retreat (close schools when too hot), live with (put up with
higher temps in school), increase resilience (build new schools with
better ventilation)
15
The role of Government
• Much adaptation will be autonomous – it’s weather!
• Correct market failures:
 remove barriers to action (lack of info)
 create incentives (water pricing, building regulations)
 deliver public good adaptation (flood defence, heat wave
plans)
 Leading by example (manage estate & use £ to effect change)
• Value based interventions (Katrina, coastal
Defence in the UK )
16
Putting in place a framework for action: 1
•
The Climate Change Bill will create a new legislative framework for the UK’s
adaptation programme:
1. A statutory UK risk assessment by 2011 (plus CBA)
2. A statutory UK programme to respond to the risks (2012).
3. A power to require any public authority or statutory undertaker to produce a risk
assessment and action plan (and duty on HMG to produce a strategy for use of
the power) (2009). To be accompanied by statutory guidance.
4. Adaptation advice and scrutiny from the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the
independent Committee for Climate Change.
Putting in place a framework for action: 2
• The Adapting to Climate Change Website provides a
framework which brings together the work of HMG on
adaptation, as well as serving as a ‘hub’ of other information
and advice on impacts and adaptation.
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
• Cross-Whitehall Adapting to Climate Change Programme
established.
• Government Departments have set out priorities and
established Ministerial leads.
Examples of Government Activity
i.
Defra continues to fund the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP08) –
due to release new probabilistic scenarios for likely climate change later
this year (UKCIP08)
ii.
Local Authority adaptation targets
iii.
OFWAT climate change adaptation strategy
iv.
The Department for Health recently updated Heat Wave Plan.
v.
The Highways Agency has changed the constituent materials in roads
and widened drainage channels
vi.
The government is augmenting the Green Book (the Bible for policy
development and resource allocation across government) to factor
climate change risks into decision making.
vii.
The Department for Transport has engineered a new appraisals
methodology for transport projects, which incorporates the risks
presented by a changing climate.
Need to work right across government
Security
‘Environmenta
l refugees’
could reach
150-200m by
2050s
Operational
effectiveness of
MOD equipment
impacted by
heat
More
internationa
l conflicts
over
resources?
Hampshire
saw 2,000
extra hospital
days in
summer 2003
Health
£3bn cost for
2007 floods
Many oil
refineries and
power stations
on coastal land
Rail delays
increased fivefold
in 2003 heatwave
Roads:
summer 2003
cost DfT extra
£23m in SE
Public non-financial
assets c£800bn, how
much of that is climate
resilient?
35,000 extra
deaths in
Europe and
2,000 in UK in
2003 heatwave
Infrastructure
Some heritage
sites at risk,
especially
coastal
5 Million
people live
in flood
risk areas
£6bn capital
programme
for schools –
climate
resilient?
11% of new
homes are
built in flood
risk areas
Increased risk of
animal diseases
such as
bluetongue
20
Environment
Q&A
• Will UKCIP08 change what is reasonably
foreseeable?
• Are insurance policies properly pricing in the
risks from climate change?
• How are climate risks being factored into
long-term asset management?
• What role should the Government play?
• What role can actuaries play?