Transcript Adaptation of Biodiversity to Climate Change in southern Africa

Adaptation of Biodiversity to
Climate Change in southern
Africa
by: Jenny Cooper
CSIR, National Botanical Institute,
University of Pretoria & Kruger
National Park.
3 Case studies
2. North Eastern
Lowveld
1. Succulent Karoo
3. Cape Floral
Kingdom
Study area
Three case studies
– Cape: data rich, diverse, mountains, patchy
– Karoo: data poor, geology
– ‘Kruger’: large mammals and birds
Adaptation Options
Five options:
– No action
– Re-configure parks
– Consider alternatives to parks (migration
friendly land-uses)
– Facilitated migration and dispersal
– Ex-situ conservation (e.g. botanical gardens,
gene banks and/or zoos)
Key Analyses:
Step 1
Work with stakeholders
to identify project plan
Key Analyses:
Step 1
Work Step
with stakeholders
2
to identify
project plan
Determine:
Current knowledge (literature search)
Past/present biodiversity management
Species distributions
Key Analyses:
Step 1
Work Step
with stakeholders
2
to identify
project plan
Determine:
Curent knowledge (literature search)
Step 3 management
Past/present biodiversity
Introduce climate
change
and land cover scenarios
Species
distributions
Determine species environmental envelopes
Model species responses (dynamic models)
Key Analyses:
Step 1
Work Step
with stakeholders
2
to identify
project plan
Determine:
Curent knowledge (literature search)
Step 3 management
Past/present biodiversity
Introduce climate
change
and land cover scenarios
Species
distributions
Determine species environmental envelopes
Model species responses (dynamic models)
Step 4
Identify and analyse adaptation options to
achieve conservation objectives (economic tools)
Key Analyses:
Step 1
Work Step
with stakeholders
2
to identify
project plan
Determine:
Curent knowledge (literature search)
Step 3 management
Past/present biodiversity
Introduce climate
change
and land cover scenarios
Species
distributions
Determine species environmental envelopes
Model species responses
models)
Step (dynamic
4
Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools)
Step 5
Synthesis, recommendations and training
Research questions to be
investigated
What are the economic, social and
environmental costs and benefits
associated with a range of adaptation
options? (MCA)
What are the cost implications if species
richness increases/decreases)?
What are the benefits (potential
economic returns) of eco-tourism
activities? (NE Lowveld)
Research questions to be
investigated (cont)
What is the most desirable adaptation
option/s in each of the study areas?
(Investigate the cost-effectiveness of
each option)
What is the sensitivity of costs &
benefits to changes in species richness?
Approach adopted:
Primary objective is to examine ways of
reducing vulnerability of biodiversity to CC
in the most cost-effective and sustainable
means.
From previous phases will have identified
vulnerability that is likely and adaptation
options which can reduce this vulnerability.
Thus will have a short list of ‘viable’
alternatives, which will then be assessed
using MCA to identify most preferable
option.
Approach adopted (cont):
Derivation of marginal cost curves for each
adaptation option in the study areas
(includes examination of land use efficiency,
species representation and irreversibility of
species loss).
Collection of eco-tourism stats for the
Lowveld area (e.g. tourist numbers visiting
the KNP, average tourist expenditure, etc).
Approach adopted (cont):
 Derivation of marginal benefit curves for ecotourism in the NE Lowveld area only.
 Test the sensitivity of costs and benefits to
different levels of species richness (ie:
determine the elasticity's associated with
different costs and benefits).
 Select and justify adaptation options in each of
the 3 areas in a manner which is
understandable to all stakeholder groups.
(No results as yet)
Anticipated Problems:
Data availability
Determination of TEV (use and non-use
values)
Methodological problems (e.g. defining
appropriate discount rate)
Lack of existing economic models
unique to each area.
Solutions to overcome
problems:
 Where no data on the extent of land required
to achieve the required level of biodiversity
conservation is available than the IUCN figure
of 10% of total land area will be used.
 Use best available data to determine
appropriate discount rate.
 Undertake sensitivity analysis to establish the
impacts of data assumptions.
 Generic economic model will be developed
and applied to each area.
Questions and
comments?