Transcript Part 1-The Rural Context (JWilliams)

Changing Nature of Rural
Landscapes and Communities
John Williams
NSW Commissioner for Natural Resources
The challenge for Australian agriculture…
• The era of cheap energy for Agriculture is
over.....
• Fuels, Fertilizer, Pesticides, increasingly expensive
• The impact of Emission Trading Scheme is
about to begin.....
• Increase costs of most inputs to agriculture
• The era of cheap food and fibre may be
over....
• global food demand increasing-Food security.
BIODIVERSITY
LAND
AIR
WATER
Damage to Land, Water &
Biodiversity
soil
nutrient depletion
soil
acidification
soil
structural decline
soil
biological decline
dryland
wind
and irrigation salinization
and water erosion
contamination
chemicals
with residues of agricultural
Damage to Land, Water &
Biodiversity
loss
of habitat and biodiversity
river
processes and environmental flows
nutrient,
salts and pollutants to wetlands, rivers and
water bodies
contamination
pollutants
riparian,
decline
decline
of groundwater with nutrients, salt and
remnant vegetation damage and rural tree
in native pastures and environmental value of
rangelands
The challenge for Australian society
• To manage water, land, biodiversity which
underpin our life support systems by
•Providing our ecosystems services and our
ecological infrastructure
• Under Climate Change and Shift
Change in atmospheric CO2 over
the last 1000 years
Based on ice core analysis, and since 1958 on direct
measurements
Inset: Monthly average concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.
Source: Australian Government, Bureau of
Meteorology
Climate observations compared to
projections
Source: Rahmstorf et al (2007). Science 316:709.
Australia is warming
Climate change is occurring and is due to
human activities
Global Carbon Budget (1850-2005)
19801989
20002005
Source
5.4 6.3 7.2
deforestation
atmospheric CO2
Sink
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
fossil fuel emissions
19901999
land
ocean
Time (y)
IPCC 2001; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS, in review; IPCC WGI 2007, unpublished comparison
1.4 1.6 1.5
3.3 3.2 4.2
1.7 2.5 2.3
1.8 2.2 2.3
Summary of Projected Climate Changes
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Temperature to increase 3oC by 2050 and 5oC by
2070 over land areas
Lower increases in temperature in maritime environments
Precipitation increases in high latitudes (temperate) but a
drying in mid-latitudes (sub-tropics) over Asia
Equatorial tropical zone – uncertain but little mean change
expected
No increase in cyclone frequency but intensity could increase
by 10-20%
Accelerated melting of glaciers – 65% of China’s glaciers will
not exist by 2050 with current and projected warming trends
Sea level rise modest in IPCC projections (c. 50cm) but
estimates don’t include significant ice melt over land
15-model average changes in
temperature by 2030, relative to
1990
Suppiah et al (in prep)
Low CO2 emission scenario
High CO2 emission scenario
Temperature change (°C)
Annual Flows In Lachlan River at Forbes
11 April 2016
TYPE IN PRESENTATION NAME
16
Rainfall trend (1910 to 2005)
Source: Richard Beecham, NSW Department of Natural
Resources
Source: Barry Hanstrum, Bureau of Meteorology