Transcript Document

Risk mapping and zoning approaches
in European insurance markets
Roland NUSSBAUM
Managing Director of Mission Risques Naturels (FR)
Chairman of Natural Hazards Working Group
Comité Européen des Assurances (CEA)
“The International Catastrophic Risks Forum"
Bucharest, October 1st 2007
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Risk mapping and zoning approaches in Europe
OUTLINE
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Typology of CAT extended coverages in
European insurance markets
Introducing CEA relevant activities
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User needs, data and scope of
developments
Flood and seismic hazard zoning
tools
Conclusions
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Annexes
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Typology of NATCAT extended coverages
in European insurance markets
Optionnal
Compulsory
Insurers are not risk carryer
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New / modified extended coverages:
Color intensity
according to market
penetration of
extended cover:
Recently put in place
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FLOODS
and/or
SEISMIC RISK
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In project………
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COMITE EUROPEEN DES ASSURANCES
o Federation of European insurance associations
www.cea.assur.org
o Property Committee
o Natural Hazards Working Group (NH WG)
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Cooperations & experience sharing
between CEA markets
• Mutual information on market
situation and developments
• Hazard mapping and zoning
• Insurers and flood risk prevention
• Catastrophic claims management
• Climate change : report July 2007
* Downloadable on CEA’s website: www.cea.assur.org
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1. Users’ needs, data, services
and scope of developments
French experience
Conducted by MRN
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Categories of needs within insurance
Evolution in France
Job
Underwriting
risk survey
Purpose
Prevention incentive
Risk exposure eval°
Trends
Evolution of ins. regime
Claims consistency
control
Claims management
Reinsurance cessions
Rapid evaluation of total
claim
Crisis management
CATNAT
Risk accumulations
Reinsurance
underwrinting
Régime CATNAT
Offre outils modélisation
Solvency II
Statistics Acturarial sc.
Risk management
Portfolio exposure eval°
and monitoring
Asset allocation
Solvency II
CATNAT Regime
Real estate assets
porforlio managment
Prevention and crisis
preparedness within
insurance company
• Safety managmeent plan
• Susbtainablity reportng
duties for companies
Type of
service
Site by site
scoring
Accumulation
modelling
Site by site
scoring
modelling
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Data, services and scope of use
categories of data
Scoring
Exposure
Assessment
Site by site
Modelling
Hazards
Prevention
policy
Territories
Service / scope
General interest
Public policy
Referentials
Vulnerability
Loss
records
?
Underwriting
Insurance
portfolios
Private assets
Competition
Private market
players
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2. Flood and seismic hazard
zoning tools
General comments
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Flood and seismic hazard exposure
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Floods, storms and earthquakes
Annual probability of exceedance = f(losses)
Sources: DFNK, GFZ
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2.1. Flood zoning tools
used by european insurance markets
A CEA Contribution to
EXCIMAP Atlas and guide of good practices
to be published by EU Commission DG ENV
See Annex to CEA report
“Reducing the Social and Economic Impact of
Climate Change and Natural Catastrophes
Insurance Solutions and Public-Private Partnerships”
July 2007
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Typology & evolution of flood hazard zoning tools
on European insurance markets
Market players with data
modeling tools from
agencies
PPPs
Hazard data
Proprietary developments
at market initiative
Directives :
FLOODS
market / project
INSPIRE
(USA)
NFIP / FIRM
DE : ZURS 1 & 2
?
UK : Informal agreement
UK
BE
2006
ABI(+CML) - EA
?
CZ : FRAT
?
AU : PPP
AU : HORA
VVO – LM
2004-6
Public site
2007
FR : MRN
2004-7
Service Intranet
?
IT : SIGRA
PL : project
T
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2.2. Seismic risk
in European insurance markets
First results of enquiries
and best practices exchanges
between CEA Member Associations
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Seismic risk
Availability of hazard maps
?
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seismic hazard
information availability
Source : B. Ranguelov, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences , at SENS’2006, June 2006
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Exposed properties per seismic zone
BREAKDOWN OF EXISTING PROPERTIES WITHIN THE COUNTRY
I
71,2%
II
27,0%
III
1,8%
II
SEISMIC ZONES FROM 2004 (3 ZONES)
GREECE
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Seismic risk
Availability of PML scenarios
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3. Conclusions
• Huge technical developments by insurance markets,
based on GIS technologies and modelling, to
improve cat insurability
• Positive effect of best practices exchange between
insurance markets: role of CEA – invitation to join
CEA Natural Hazard Working Group activities
• EU policies: INFSO / INSPIRE, R&D / FP7, REGIO,
ENV / Climate change adaptation strategy, flood
action programme / Flood directive…) favour the
trends towards PPPs for:
o data production, sharing and dissemination,
o joining efforts in exposure assessments
 Deterministic
 Probabilistic
o promoting insurance services as economic incentives for
risk prevention
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Thank you for your attention
www.cea.assur.org
www.mrn-gpsa.org
[email protected]
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Risk mapping and zoning approaches in Europe
Annexes
to the presentation
Additionnal maps and illustrative examples
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Plans de prévention des risques
(PPR)
Developing a professional
tool for scoring indicators
about their adequacy and
efficiency
Sources : DDE 65 et 94
Situation /
(hazard, municipality)
Test on
Absence ofPPR
assets
PPR approved
assets +
adequacy
PPR mature
assets +
adequacy +
efficiency
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Intranet geoservices infrastructure offered
by MRN to French insurance companies
Through a unique access point, insurance companies have two categories of services :
- online consultation of a site exposure and report edition
- downloading of numeric data sets on natural hazard zonations
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The MRN geoservices intranet platform
This example shows a consultation of the information available for flood
and subsidence hazards at the following adress:
1 rue Bannier 45 000 Orléans
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Multi-sites « scoring »
for an insurance portfolio
the various addresses have been
geocoded, these insured sites are then
« qualified » with respect to hazard,
according to i available data and
considering their credibility
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Modelling of an EQ on the
French Riviera
 synthetic event
 Magnitude 6.1
 Epicenter:
in the sea,
near Menton city
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Modelling of an EQ on the French Riviera
Asset Module
VULNERABILITY CLASSES OF EXPOSED MUNICIPALITIES IN
PACA REGION
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Modelling of an EQ on the French Riviera
Damage estimate Module
Economic loss estimate = % damage X nb dwellings X surfaces X replacing cost/ m2
Estimate of the amount of damage to dwellings
par municipality
About
47 000 dwellings
9 G€ of insured
dammage
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Best practice exchange on flood zoning data
by insurance markets
B
GK1
GK4
DE
GK2
GK3
Insurance market proprietary zoning tools
CZ
Public zoning tools used by insurance markets
http://geoinfo.lfrz.at/website/egisroot/services/ehora2/viewer.htm
AU
FR29
UK situation:
EA agreement with ABI
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ITALY : SIGRA project
integrating site by site and portfolio tools
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Qualitative assessment of risk awareness level
High
Low
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EQ extended coverage: compulsory or not?
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Market penetration of EQ coverage
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Form of EQ insurance market organisation
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EQ prevention requirements
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