Transcript Presentation - Oxford Institute for Sustainable Development

Waking up the Giant
The Key Role of Energy Efficiency in
Abating Climate Change
Prof. Dr. Ernst Worrell
Chair Energy, materials & the Environment, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht
University, The Netherlands
Director Energy Use & Efficiency, Ecofys, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Therm
Joule
Negajoule
GigaJoule
kWh
MegaJoule
Copernicus Institute
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BTU
Kill-a-Watt
Introduction
• Climate Change
– IPCC 4th Assessment Report Results
– Mitigation: potentials & contributions
• Energy Efficiency & Climate Change
• Key Role of Energy Efficiency
– Industry
– Buildings
• Realizing Energy Efficiency
• Conclusions
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2007 Nobel Peace Prize
Awarded to IPCC
IPCC Process
• IPCC charged with assessing existing scientific basis for
climate change and response
• Fourth Assessment Report completed in 2007
• Three Working Groups
– WG III – Mitigation – Technology and Economics
• Summary for Policy Makers
– WG III report approved in May 2007
– Line by line approval by participating governments
– Four-day approval process – WGIII Bangkok, May 2007
– Government interventions improve accuracy of reporting with
appropriate caveats
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CO2 Emission Sources
CO2 Emissions to Atmosphere
Cement, lime
Ammonia
Plastics
Extraction
Materials
Production
Anaerobic Digestion
Incineration
Processing
Consumption
Waste
Management
Recycling and reuse
Natural
resources
Waste
CO2 from energy
CO2 from feedstock (fossil fuels, limestone)
CO2 from waste treatment (fossil and biomass)
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Between 1970 and 2004 Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Increased by 70 %
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180
Even With Current Policies
Global GHG
160
Emissions Will Continue to Grow
140
120
IPCC SRES Scenarios:
• 2030 GHG emissions 50-76 Gt
CO2 or 25-90% higher relative to
2000
• Depending on population and
economic growth
100
80
60
40
20
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A1F1
A2
A1B
A1T
B1
B2
95th
75th
2000
0
Substantial economic potential for GHG
Emission mitigation over the coming decades
< $0
< $20
< $50
< $100
< $20
30
< $100
35
BOTTOM-UP
25
20
15
10
5
estimated mitigation potential
(Gt CO2-eq) in 2030
estimated mitigation potential
(Gt CO2-eq) in 2030
35
< $50
TOP-DOWN
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
low end of range
high end of range
low end of range
high end of range
Emissions 2004: 43GtCO2eq: 2030: SRES A1B: 68GtCO2eq ; SRES B2: 49 GtCO2eq
Note: estimates do not explicitly include non-technical options such as lifestyle changes
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What does US$ 50/ tCO2eq Mean?
• Crude oil: ~US$25/barrel
• Gasoline: ~12 USc/litre
(50 USc/gallon)
• Electricity:
– from coal fired plant:
~5 USc/kWh
– from gas fired plant:
~1.5 USc/kWh
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0
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Average World Crude ($/bbl)
For Comparison: Oil Prices
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Despite most severe economic crisis since the 1930’s energy
and resource prices stay high or are increasing again!
Mitigation Investments are Limited
GDP
GDP without
mitigation
80%
77%
GDP with
stringent
mitigation
current
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~1 year
Time
All Sectors and Regions have the
Potential to Contribute
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Reducing GHG Emissions
• The need to stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at
sustainable levels will demand strong reductions in global GHG
emissions
• Emission reduction in materials production possible by:
– improving energy efficiency
– reducing the emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
– capture and sequestration of CO2 emissions
– increased use of renewable energy and feedstocks
– improving the efficiency with which we use materials
• Focus on integrated energy and material efficiency strategies
• In next decades energy efficiency key
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Emission reduction pathways
IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008
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Energy Efficiency Key to Reduce CO2
Emissions by 2030
100%
20%
21%
15%
5%
80%
10%
60%
17%
5%
7%
12%
21%
8%
1%
4%
7%
10%
40%
58%
63%
67%
Transition economies
Developing countries
49%
20%
0%
World
OECD
End-use efficiency gains
Fuel switching in end uses
Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation
Increased renewables in power generation
Increased nuclear in power generation
Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute more
than half of decrease in emissions
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Energy Use Higher Without Efficiency
450
400
Other
350
Agriculture/forestry
EJ/year
300
Industry
250
200
Transport
150
Services
100
50
Buildings
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
• World energy demand would have been much higher without
energy efficiency efforts since the 1970s
• But not sufficient to stabilize world energy use
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Global Efficiency Effort too Small
• Global investment in energy
efficiency in 2007 was 60 billion
Euro
• Promising developments in
some sectors and some
countries
• Overall effort too small, global
energy use grew by 3% per year
(2003- 2007)
• Download from: www.reeep.org
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EU: 2030 GHG Emissions Reductions
Transport,
9%
Europe
Households,
29%
Services,
15%
Fossil fuel
extraction,
1%
Waste, 2%
Agriculture,
4%
Other, 1%
Energy
supply, 32%
Industry, 7%
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Energy Efficiency - Buildings
• Buildings responsible for 10.6 GtCO2-eq. of
GHG emissions, of which 80% from energy
use
• Between 20 and 40% of energy used to
maintain building environment
– Building envelope
• Walls
• Windows
– Passive and active use of solar energy
– Efficient appliances
• Lighting and appliances other key areas
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Netherlands: Residential space heating
and hot water production
Consumption per dwelling, GJ/year (NL)
1975 – average
98
1998 – average
63
Standard 1996/1998/2000 – new
45/38/32
Present best in the market – new
17
Future – new
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0–6
Specific energy use (kJ per m2 per HDD)
Insulation Levels Not Optimized
300
Canada
Italy
United Kingdom
China, urban
250
Wall Insulation Levels
New Construction
France
Japan
United States
China, rural
200
150
100
50
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
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2005
2010
Technologies to increase residential
heating efficiency
• Advanced insulation materials (vacuum) and
glazing
• Heat storage in phase change materials (factor
10)
• Optimum combination of passive and active
solar energy
• New construction methods and integrated
building design
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Success is Possible: Top Runner
TV receivers
1997-2003
26%
VCRs
1997-2003
74%
Room air conditioners
1998-2004
68%
Refrigerators
1998-2004
55%
Freezers
1998-2004
30%
Passenger vehicles
1995-2005
23%
Freight vehicles
1995-2005
22%
Vending machines
2000-2005
37%
Computers
1997-2005
99%
Magnetic disc units
1997-2005
98%
Fluorescent lights
1997-2005
36%
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Industry: Global material consumption
increases
Rapidly
..but global material consumption will grow rapidly,
1.8E+09
due to growing
demand in developing countries
Iron
Cement
Steel
and constant
demand in industrialized countries
1.6E+09
1.4E+09
Cement
Aluminum
Copper
Ammonia
Production (ton)
1.2E+09
1.0E+09
Steel
8.0E+08
Iron
6.0E+08
4.0E+08
2.0E+08
Ammonia (N)
Aluminum
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2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
0.0E+00
Potentials exists in all Industrial Sectors
(2030)
OECD
North
America
OECD
Pacific
OECD
Europe
Russia
China
India
Brazil
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
-16%
Iron and steel
Chemicals
Non-metallic minerals
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Paper and pulp
Other industries
Industrial Energy Efficiency
Opportunities
• Cross-Cutting
– Steam systems
– Cooling/Refrigeration
– Motor Systems
10-20%
20-40%
~ 30%
• Sector Specific
– Iron & Steel
– Cement
– Chemicals
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15-40%
10-40%
20-25%
Realizing Savings: Manage your Energy
• Successful management:
– Energy bill is not an act of God
– Recognizes the “human factor”
– Creates an organization-wide system and program for
managing energy
– Delivers sustained reductions over time and is designed for
continual improvement
– Relates itself to the core business of the organization
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Energy Management Pitfalls
Energy typically considered a “technical issue”:
– Decentralized and not strongly organized
– Under-staffed or out-sourced
– Changes in management and organization
– Technology oriented
– Project and not program oriented
– Reactive
– Undervalued
– Considered capital intensive
– Lack of upper management support or
involvement
Resulting in poor planning and decision
making
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Success Factors for Energy Management
• Commitment of top management
• Clear and measurable targets
• Information and management systems in place
• Regularly assess and track performance
• Involvement of all levels in organization
• Stable organization
• Resources and time allocated
• Continuous program
• Excellent communication
• Networking
• External sparring partners
• Recognition
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A Systematic
Approach
• Plan (target)
• Do (implement)
• Check (monitor)
• Act (adjust)
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Energy Management:
Seven Steps to Change the Mindset
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Make commitment to continuous improvement
Assess performance
Set goals
Create action plan
Implement action plan
Evaluate progress
Recognize achievements
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Conclusions
• Climate change and high energy prices are here to stay
• Energy-efficiency is the key response strategy
• There is substantial potential for energy efficiency
improvement in the short, medium and long-term
• We are not running out of technologies to improve energy
efficiency, economic and environmental performance, and
neither will we in the future: vacuum insulation is an example
• Continuous innovation is key for further bridging the gap
between thermodynamics and current energy use
• Strategic energy management is essential to recognize and
realize the promise of energy efficiency
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Thank you for your attention
Ernst Worrell
Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University
[email protected]
Ecofys
[email protected]
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