Transcript extreme events and climate change

Climate change:
Challenge, menace or
opportunity?
Extreme events and climate change
Climate change and human action
Built vulnerability as the local expression
of unmanaged risk
Built
vulnerability:
human
intervention
increases
exposure to
extreme
events. Climate
change is an
additional
stress for
sustainable,
resilient
development
Increased climate change is insufficiently
valued in its costs
The results of the 4th Assessment
report to the IPCC (why was it given
the 2007 half of the Peace Nobel Prize)
Essential conclusions of the three working groups:
Group I: incontestable evidence of climate change and its attribution to human
intervention linking greenhouse gases to climate change.
Group II: Impacts are undeniable and can be traced as additional stress
sustainable development. Local impacts are aggravated by development,
physical and structural vulnerabilites. Adaptation costs are smaller than damage
and losses, as demonstrated by extreme events increase over time.
Group II: Overal dynamic impact of mitigation (as decreased growth or higher
sustainable development investment) is smaller than cost of unabated
continuation of tendencies (3% decrease of world GDP growth associated to
mitigation to avoid 30% loss of GDP in next 30/5o years.
Need for both local and global efforts, concentrating developing countries efforts
in adaptation supported by developed and emerging economies efforts in
mitigation.
Sound scientific and technical basis for crucial Bali negotiations of Post-Kyoto
convention.
Relevant participation of developing countries’ scientists and researchers in AR4: as
lead authors and as literature quoted, focusing on differentiated regional
impacts: the case for SIDS
Regional
impact in
Latin
America and
the
Caribbean
(see also the
small
Islands
chapter)
The climate record from the
Vostok (Antarctica) ice core
shows the natural variations
in the atmospheric CO2
levels associated with the
swing between full glacial
conditions and interglacial
periods such as today. Note
the 1994 atmospheric CO2
level plotted on the left-hand
side of the graph; we
currently have an unusually
high concentration of carbon
dioxide. The climatological
effects are thus potentially
significant.
Circulación del aire: Cambios recientes
Cambio climático y
efectos sobre
trayectoria de
tormentas y
patrones
estacionales
temperatura
Fuerza de
actividades
antrópicas
contribuye al
cambio climático
GLACIER MELTDOWN
Evolution of area and volume of the
Chacaltaya glacier (Bolivia), as estimated by
Soruco et al. 2005
Temperature variation, where
both the maximum and
minimum increase, has affected
the Andean glaciers, showing a
marked recess in terms of
extension and volume.
Up to 40% reduction linked to
atmospheric temperature
increase.
Mos notable recessions:
Campos de hielo Sur (ChileArgentina), Callejón del Huaylas
(Perú), Cordillera Real (Bolivia)
Threat to livelihood in the
Andean valleys (water sources,
avalanches, watersheds)
Who is responsible: share in emissions
Party Emissions Summary for United States of America
CO2 emissions without LULUCF
CO2 net emissions/removals by LULUCF
CO2 net emissions/removals with LULUCF
GHG emissions without LULUCF
GHG net emissions/removals by LULUCF
GHG net emissions/removals with LULUCF
Base year
5,005,254.9
-910,373.1
4,094,881.8
6,103,283.3
-904,695.8
5,198,587.5
Emissions, in Gg CO2 equivalent
2000
5,864,464.9
-759,506.7
5,104,958.2
6,975,928.7
-753,132.8
6,222,795.9
2004
5,987,984.4
-780,094.2
5,207,890.2
7,067,569.6
-773,254.5
6,294,315.0
CO2 emissions without LULUCF
CO2 net emissions/removals by LULUCF
CO2 net emissions/removals with LULUCF
GHG emissions without LULUCF
GHG net emissions/removals by LULUCF
GHG net emissions/removals with LULUCF
Changes in emissions, in per cent
From base year to 2000 From base year to 2004
From 2000 to 2004
17.2
19.6
2.1
-16.6
-14.3
2.7
24.7
27.2
2.0
14.3
15.8
1.3
-16.8
-14.5
2.7
19.7
21.1
1.1
CO2 emissions without LULUCF
CO2 net emissions/removals by LULUCF
CO2 net emissions/removals with LULUCF
GHG emissions without LULUCF
GHG net emissions/removals by LULUCF
GHG net emissions/removals with LULUCF
Average annual growth rates, in per cent per year
From base year to 2000 From base year to 2004
From 2000 to 2004
1.6
1.3
0.5
-1.4
-0.8
0.7
2.3
1.8
0.5
1.4
1.1
0.3
-1.4
-0.8
0.7
1.8
1.4
0.3
The base year under the Climate Change Convention is 1990 except for Bulgaria (1988), Hungary (average of 1985 to 1987), Poland (1988), Romania (1989) and Slovenia (1986), as defined by
decisions 9/CP.2 and 11/CP.4.
Party Emissions Summary for European Community
CO2 emissions without LULUCF
CO2 net emissions/removals by LULUCF
CO2 net emissions/removals with LULUCF
GHG emissions without LULUCF
GHG net emissions/removals by LULUCF
GHG net emissions/removals with LULUCF
Base year
3,360,068.9
-209,717.0
3,150,351.9
4,266,395.4
-204,921.2
4,061,474.2
Emissions, in Gg CO2 equivalent
2000
3,355,018.4
-257,438.9
3,097,579.5
4,137,796.8
-253,125.6
3,884,671.3
2004
3,506,538.8
-290,344.4
3,216,194.4
4,232,341.6
-286,114.0
3,946,227.6
CO2 emissions without LULUCF
CO2 net emissions/removals by LULUCF
CO2 net emissions/removals with LULUCF
GHG emissions without LULUCF
GHG net emissions/removals by LULUCF
GHG net emissions/removals with LULUCF
Changes in emissions, in per cent
From base year to 2000 From base year to 2004
From 2000 to 2004
-0.2
4.4
4.5
22.8
38.4
12.8
-1.7
2.1
3.8
-3.0
-0.8
2.3
23.5
39.6
13.0
-4.4
-2.8
1.6
CO2 emissions without LULUCF
CO2 net emissions/removals by LULUCF
CO2 net emissions/removals with LULUCF
GHG emissions without LULUCF
GHG net emissions/removals by LULUCF
GHG net emissions/removals with LULUCF
Average annual growth rates, in per cent per year
From base year to 2000 From base year to 2004
From 2000 to 2004
0.0
0.3
1.1
2.4
2.6
3.2
-0.2
0.2
1.0
-0.3
-0.1
0.6
2.4
2.7
3.3
-0.4
-0.2
0.4
The base year under the Climate Change Convention is 1990 except for Bulgaria (1988), Hungary (average of 1985 to 1987), Poland (1988), Romania (1989) and Slovenia (1986), as defined by
decisions 9/CP.2 and 11/CP.4.
What is the evidence for climate
change?
And from the longer record?
Is there still a controversy?
Although some
meteorologists
say historical
series have to be
adjusted for the
longer trend
All scenarios
show that since
the mid 19th
century the level
of temperature
rise is increasing
constantly
What is the expected impact on climate?
Change in global
surface temperature
Change in global mean
sea level
Pattern of annual average temperature change, 2080s
relative to present day for A1F1 (left) and B2 (right)
emissions scenarios
Precipitation indices: maximum length of dry
spell per year (2070-99 minus 1961-90)
50oN
A2a:
30
o
45 N
20
A2a scenario
o
40 N
A2a
10
0
35oN
-10
– Longer by 15-30
days in centre and
south east
– 10 days shorter over
northern Europe
o
30 N
10oW
0o
10oE
20oE
30oE
40oE
50oN
30
o
45 N
20
40oN
10
35oN
0
-10
o
30 N
10oW
0o
10oE
20oE
30oE
40oE
B2a
B2a:
– Smaller changes than
A2a
– wetter Eastern Med.
Hurricanes in the Atlantic have increased (in frequency and
strength) with the sea level temperature rise (SST)
(1944-2005)
SST
Notable increase
after 1944
Probability of extreme events:
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency 2006-2010:An Experimental Forecast Based on Multi-decadal Analogues, JORGE
SÁNCHEZ–SESMA,Coordinación de Hidrología, Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Morelos, México.
22
ATC Frequencies [1/yr]
ATC frequency [1/yr]
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
1973
2010
1978
1983
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
1970.00
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
Year
80
70
60
Lag [yr]
AMO index [°C]
Time [yr]
50
40
30
20
10
1975.00
1980.00
1985.00
1990.00
1995.00
2000.00
Time [yr]
Registered
Model
RegisteredCDC
2005.00
2010.00
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Forecast time [yr]
1995
2000
2005
Precipitation indices: max. 5-day running total
(2070-99 minus 1961-90)
50 N
o
40
45oN
20
A2a scenario
40oN
35oN
-20
o
30 N
0
10oW
0o
10oE
20oE
30oE
40oE
-40
50 N
o
40
45oN
20
o
40 N
0
35oN
-20
30oN
o
10 W
0
o
o
10 E
o
20 E
o
30 E
o
40 E
-40
A2a:
– Lower intensity, by
10-20 mm, in future,
particularly in west
– Increased intensity
in centre and
Adriatic
B2a:
– Smaller changes
than A2a
– Clearly higher
intensity in Italy
Impacts
Impacts of more intense rainfall on
storm drains/sewers
Heat stress
Changes in circulation and the
implications for air pollution
Coastal cities and tidal surge
Implications of increased wind storm
Adaptation
Through design:
–
–
–
–
Of urban spaces
Of buildings
Land use planning
Development poverty reduction and adaptation
Through behaviour
– Use of the outdoor environment
– Transport policies
– Air conditioning
Mitigation activities
Energy use
– Reduction in demand
– Use of renewables
Fuel-efficient transport systems
Clean production procedures
Aforestation and reforestation
Saved deforestation (to be obtained in
new Post-Koto negotiations)
What about surprises/abrupt
climate change?
Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Melting of the Greenland ice cap
Collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline
circulation
Of course, the real surprises are the ones
we haven’t thought of
The Inter-governmental Panel on
Climate Change
To assess the scientific literature on climate
change
To support the UNFCCC
Three Working Groups
– Science
– Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
– Mitigation and Policy
Now carrying out the Fourth Assessment
To report in 2007
Structure of WGII
Two Co-Chairs:
– Martin Parry, UK
– Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina
Six Vice-Chairs
One TSU with four full-time staff
Writing team of around 200 CLAs, LAs and REs, plus
Contributing Authors
Four Lead Author Meetings
Working Group II AR4
Summary for Policymakers + Technical Summary
Introduction
1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed
systems
II. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: SECTORS
2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future
conditions
3. Fresh water resources and their management
4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services
5. Food, fibre and forest products
6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas
7. Industry, settlement, and society
8. Human health
III. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: REGIONS
9: Africa, 10: Asia, 11: Australia and New Zealand, 12: Europe, 13: Latin
America 14: North America, 15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic),
16: Small Islands
IV. ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSES
17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity
18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation
19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change
20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability
Impact of Climate
Change and the
IPCC Fourth
Assessment
The IPCC Fourth Assessment
Working Group Reports:
Key findings
WMO
UNEP
Dr R K Pachauri
Chairman, IPCC
Director-General, TERI
United Nations Headquarters
New York City
24th September 2007
Human contribution to climate change
Changes in CO2 from ice core and modern data
Global atmospheric
-2
concentrations of
greenhouse gases
increased markedly as
result of human activities
In 2005 concentration of
CO2 exceeded by far the
natural range over the last
650,000 years
10000
5000
Time (before 2005)
0
Direct observations of recent climate change
Changes in temperature, sea level and
northern hemisphere snow cover
Global average temperature
Global average sea level
Northern hemisphere
snow cover
Glacier mass balance
Cumulative balance
of glacier mass in some regions
During the 20th century,
glaciers and ice caps have
experienced widespread
mass losses and have
contributed to sea level rise
Further decline of
mountain glaciers
projected to reduce water
availability in many regions
Heavier precipitation,
more intense and longer droughts….
Key vulnerabilities to climate change
Some regions will be more affected than others:
• The Arctic (ice sheet loss, ecosystem changes)
• Sub-Saharan Africa (water stress, reduced crops)
• Small islands (coastal erosion, inundation)
• Asian mega-deltas (flooding from sea and rivers)
Some ecosystems are highly vulnerable:
• Coral reefs, marine shell organisms
• Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean
regions
• 20-30% of plant and animal species at risk of extinction
Coastal settlements most at risk
Ranges for predicted surface warming
Multi-model averages and assessed ranges for surface warming
Mitigation urgently needed
Continued GHG emissions at or above current rate would
induce larger climatic changes than those observed in 20th
century
Emissions of the greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto
Protocol increased by about 70% from 1970–2004
Mitigation needs to start in short term, even when
benefits may only arise in a few decades
Beyond
adaptation
Adaptation to climate change is necessary to address
impacts resulting from the warming which is already
unavoidable due to past emissions
However:
• Adaptation alone cannot cope with all the projected impacts
of climate change
• The costs of adaptation and impacts will increase as global
temperatures increase
Making development more sustainable can enhance both
mitigative and adaptive capacity, and reduce emissions and
vulnerability to climate change
Pathways towards stabilization
Characteristics of stabilization scenarios
Stabilization
level
(ppm CO2eq)
Global mean
temp. increase
equilibrium
at (ºC)
Year CO2
needs to
peak
Year CO2
emissions
back at
2000 level
Reduction in
2050 CO2
emissions
compared to
2000
445 – 490
2.0 – 2.4
2000 - 2015
2000- 2030
-85 to -50
490 – 535
2.4 – 2.8
2000 - 2020
2000- 2040
-60 to -30
535 – 590
2.8 – 3.2
2010 - 2030
2020- 2060
-30 to +5
590 – 710
3.2 – 4.0
2020 - 2060
2050- 2100
+10 to +60
710 – 855
4.0 – 4.9
2050 - 2080
+25 to +85
855 – 1130
4.9 – 6.1
2060 - 2090
+90 to +140
Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades
will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower
stabilization levels
Mitigation costs in 2030
Estimated global macro-economic costs in 2030 for leastcost trajectories towards different long-term stabilization
levels
Trajectories
Median
Range of
Reduction of
towards
GDP
GDP
average annual
stabilization
reduction
reduction
GDP growth
levels
(%)
(%)
rates
(ppm CO2-eq)
590-710
0.2
-0.6 – 1.2
535-590
0.6
0.2 – 2.5
(percentage
< 0.06
points)
<0.1
445-535
Not available
<3
< 0.12
0.6% gain to 3% decrease of GDP
Illustration of cost numbers
GDP
GDP without
mitigation
80%
77%
GDP with
stringent
mitigation
Current
Time
~1 Year
2030
Key technologies to reduce emissions
Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available
Energy
Supply
Efficiency; fuel switching; renewable (hydropower,
solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined
heat and power; nuclear power; early applications of
CO2 capture and storage
Transport
More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels;
modal shifts from road transport to rail and public
transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use
planning
Buildings
Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and aircodition;
improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling;
alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and
appliances
Key policies to reduce emissions
Appropriate incentives for
development of technologies
Effective carbon price signal to
create incentives to invest in low-GHG
products, technologies and processes
Appropriate energy infrastructure
investment decisions, which have
long term effects on emissions
Changes in lifestyle and behavior
patterns, especially in building,
transport and industrial sectors
A technological
has two
choices.
First
can wait
Be thesociety
change
you
want
toit see
inuntil
thecatastrophic
world
failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self-deceptions…
Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for
systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures.
An equity and development issue
Distribution of attribution:
– GHE vs. Adaptation costs
– Mitigation costs vs. Level of contribution
Issues of developmnent and climate change
International agendas’ disconnect
–
–
–
–
–
Competitiveness and trade
% of GDP destined to cooperation
MDGs
Sustainable development
Peace and security
A guide por policy measures: Taxonomy of Standards
(process or production methods or PPM and product based)
ANNUAL VOLUMES (million tCO2e) OF PROJECT-BASED EMISSION
REDUCTIONS TRADED (up to 2012 vintages)
MARKET BUYERS (share of volume of ERs purchased),
Purchases of
World Bank Carbon Funds allocated to Funds Participants pro
rata their shares
LOCATION OF EMISSION REDUCTION PROJECTS
(in share of volume supplied)
Total Value of Project-Based Transactions: TOTAL MARKET
VALUE (ESTIMATE) PER YEAR in million U.S.
dollars (nominal)
Supposing you wanted to
contribute to the process
The IPCC assesses the literature
It seeks to be inclusive and consensual
The preference is for fully refereed publications
There are procedures to deal with ‘grey
literature’
Submissions of literature and/or text can be
made to the appropriate CLA, the Co-Chairs or
the TSU, for consideration
There is a need for increased research in
developing countries
Thank you
See:
http://www.cepal.org/mexico
http://groups.google.ch/groups/pdna-for-recovery
http://www.isdr.org http://www.wmo.org/ipcc