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Innovative and effective approaches to climate change: Experiences from the Global Climate Change Alliance Brussels 12th-14th September 2012 Mainstreaming climate change into national development planning Session 9, Day 1, 12th September 2012 Thomas E Downing Global Climate Adaptation Partnership 拚 冒險 Jackson Pollock’s Convergence, an example of an artistic tradition of filling the canvass. Is this what you are looking for in mapping the adaptation space? Adaptation involves changes in social-ecological systems in response to actual and expected impacts of climate change in the context of interacting nonclimatic changes. Adaptation strategies and actions can range from short-term coping to longer-term, deeper trans- formations, aim to meet more than climate change goals alone, and may or may not succeed in moderating harm or exploiting beneficial opportunities. Moser & Ekstrom, 2010. A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation NO SINGLE DEFINITION Actors are organised in networks of formal relationships, information flows, finance, influence and shared purposes GCCA mainstreaming actions, in 17 countries and 4 regions, are the focus of over half of the GCCA interventions Source: GCAP & GeoSAS, net-map protocol There are many entry points, conventionally organised according to: • Awareness, knowledge and information • Policy and vision • Strategic planning and procedures • Operational implementation CONTESTED ACTOR-NETWORKS Adaptation strategies reflect theories of change Source: John Colvin, from Oxfam (Green, 2011) Mainstreaming has multiple faces: • Polly promotes complex vulnerability models as a means to raise awareness, build technical capacity and ensure that the potential range of risks is considered in development planning. • Vikrom is developing a leadership programme to mentor and stimulate elites in linking their understanding of the science-policy interface to action in their own domains. • Carmen seeks to bring ecosystem-based adaptation into the thinking and planning frames of small enterprises by linking current climate risks to their business models. NO SINGLE THEORY OF CHANGE Adaptation covers a spectrum of strategies and activities Targeted climate change actions Adaptive capacity and planning Climate resilience Reduced current vulnerability Good development Over 80% of the GCCA mainstreaming actions focus on good development and poverty reduction Source: GCAP, based on various publications Modes of adaptation reflect… • Particular stakeholder visions, framing and decision spaces • Timelines, pathways and progressions toward ‘attributable’ climate impacts A CONTINUUM OF ACTION Adaptation is a socio-institutional process with path-dependency Transformation in the decision space occurs at nodes that define strategies, baseline investment and finance. Range of future outcomes • Socio-economic vulnerability • Climate conditions & risks • Ability to meet development targets Early branch • Reduce current vulnerability • Increase adaptive capacity • Rule out worst-case scenarios Vulnerability baseline • Socio-economic status • Historical exposure • Trends in risk Major options • Robust against a range of future • Increased options • Scaling up solutions Source: GCAP Are we now able to identify measures of an adaptation pathway… • Conversion of data into information, knowledge and wisdom • Transformation of institutions as change-makers • Transparency, accountability and effective finance WAY-FINDING BEYOND MILESTONES If we can’t predict the future, can we act today? … the journey continues [email protected]