Transcript Climate change

Baltic Sea Region Climate
Change Adaptation Strategy
Project type: EU INTERREG IV B project
Period: 36 months
Kick-off meeting: 10-12 January 2011
Ole Krarup Leth
Danish Meteorological Institute
www.baltadapt.eu
Overview
1 Climate change:
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An understanding of the problem …
Why BALTADAPT
Partners
Work to be carried out
2 Some components to the knowledgebase – what should we relate to:
• Warming – regional
• Precipitation – regional
• Sea level – regional
www.baltadapt.eu
Background
Realise the disaster but
prevent the catastrophe ...
In our everyday life we calculate
the risks and take our precautions
– the same is true regarding
climate change and climate change
adaptation …
www.baltadapt.eu
Background
EU´s strategy for the Baltic Sea...
• Elaborated by the European Commission
• Launched in 2009
• Four focus areas:
1) Environmentally sustainable
2) Increase economical/industrial competitivenes
3) Improve infrastructure
4) Security
• Focus area 1), priority area 5 (of 15): „Adaptation to
climate change“
• Priority area 5 is implemented via the action plan:
„To establish a regional adaptation strategy for the
Baltic Sea Region“  BALTADAPT
www.baltadapt.eu
Project goals and expected results
Overall objectives:
• Come up with sustainable solutions for climate adaptation in the Baltic
Sea Region
objectives:
• Develop a climate change adaptation startegy for the Baltic Sea region
Expected results:
• Improve knowledge sharing between scientists and politicians
• Collect existing knowledge on climate change adaptation, and identify and
fill in gabs in this knowledge
• Develop a climate change adaptation strategy for the Baltic Sea region
• Develop an action plan (for decision makers) for the Baltic Sea region
www.baltadapt.eu
Baltadapt partnership
Finnish Environment
The Secretariat of the
Council of the Baltic Sea
States (CBSS)/Baltic 21
Institute (SYKE)
University of Tartu,
Estonian Marine Institute
(EMI)
Swedish Meteorological
and Hydrological Institute
(SMHI)
University of Latvia
(LU)
Danish Meteological
Institute (DMI; LP)
Baltic Environmental
Forum (BEF), Lithuania
National Environmental
Research Institute, Aarhus,
University (NERI)
Federal Ministry for the
Environment, Nature
Federal Environment
Agency (UBA)
Conservation and Nuclear
Safety (BMU)
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Leibniz Institute for
Baltic Sea Research
Warnemünde (IOW)
Work package 5:
Develop a BSR
climate change
adaptation strategy
Develop a BSR
climate change
action plan
Work package 4:
Develop knowledge base and vulnerability
assessment for the BSR
www.baltadapt.eu
Communication and
information
Work package 3:
Work package 2:
Project management
Work package 1:
Project structure
Project structure
Work package 4:
Develop knowledge base and vulnerability
assessment for the BSR
Workww
Group 1:
Work Group 2:
Work Group 3:
BSR physical system
BSR ecosystem
BSR coastal zone
T1: Describe the state of knowledge (review and compilation of literature and recent research results)
T2: Identify climate change impacts on coastal zone env. cond. (e.g., questionnaires send to experts)
T3: Identify climate change impacts on coastal uses and function (e.g., questionnaires send to experts)
The assessment in WP 4 is a review of existing knowledge on climate
change and related issues, not an evaluation of climate change itself.
www.baltadapt.eu
Background
The Baltic Sea and its
coastlines face challenges
due to climate change...
• Changes in precipitation amounts
and patterns
• Increase in terrestrial and sea
temperatures
• Rise in sea level
• Decrease in ice cover
• Intensified eutrophication and algal
blooms, increased runoff and
pollution
...it is time to adapt now!
www.baltadapt.eu
Climate change - what does data tells us
Observed, global surface
temperature and modeled
surface temperature till 2100. All
relative to 1980-1999.
Conclusion: 1.8ºC- 4ºC increase
in global surface temperature by
year 2100.
IPCC, 2007
A2 (red curve): The skeptical/pessimistic emission scenario [6Gt C/yr (now) 29 Gt C/yr]
B1/B2 (blue/black curves): The optimistic emission scenario [6Gt C/yr (now) 5/13 Gt C/yr]
A1B (green curve) : The in-between scenario
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Climate change - what does data tells us
Ensemble of 9 different, coupled, regional climate models for the IPCC A1B scenario
Winter temperatures (avg. 2071-2100) – (avg.
1961-1990). (50-percentile is approx. equal to
the avg. of the nine model scenarios)
Conclusion: 3-5ºC increase in the Baltic
Sea region
Summer temperatures (avg. 2071-2100) – (avg.
1961-1990). (50-percentile is approx. equal to
the avg. of the nine model scenarios)
Conclusion: 2-4ºC increase in the Baltic
Sea region
Results from the EU-project Ensemble (2004-2009), Dr. Ole Bøssing Christensen, DKC, DMI
www.baltadapt.eu
Climate change - what does data tells us
Ensemble of 9 different, coupled, regional climate models for the IPCC A1B scenariet
Winter precipitation [change in % from (avg.
1961-1990) to (avg. 2071-2100)]. (50percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the
nine model scenarios)
Conclusion: ~20-40% higher precipitation
in the Baltic Sea region
Summer precipitation [change in % from (avg.
1961-1990) to (avg. 2071-2100)]. (50-percentile
is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model
scenarios)
Conclusion: ~5% less to 24% higher
precipitation in the Baltic Sea region
Results from the EU-project Ensemble (2004-2009), Dr. Ole Bøssing Christensen, DKC, DMI
www.baltadapt.eu
Climate change – storm surges
Areas affected by storm surges
Coast lines in the North Sea and Baltic
Sea affected by storm surges
Future changes in sea level and in
storm surge heights owing to:
1) Changes in global sea level.
2) Regional and local changes owing to
land rise.
3) Changes in direction and strength
of local winds.
Schmidt-Thomé, P., et al. (2006). The spatial effects and management of natural and technological hazards
in Europe -ESPON 1.3.1 (ESPON report No. 1.3.1). Geological Survey of Finland (GTK).
www.baltadapt.eu
Climate change – storm surges
Increase in water level: Effect of changes
in local winds (2100 – Now)
Modeled (IPCC A2) 10 yr. extreme for year
2100 minus today. Largest increase (up to 20
- 40 cm) is expected in the Wadden sea, Gulf
of Finland and the Bothnian Bay.
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Expected increase in sea level by yr. 2100
Expected sea level rise
in Danish waters by yr.
2100
Individual
contributions
Global sea level rise
30 -100 cm
Land rise
– (10 - 20) cm
Contrib. from local winds
0 - 40 cm
Sum
10 - 120 cm
K. S. Madsen, Recent and future climatic changes in
temperature, salinity, and sea level of the North Sea and the
Baltic Sea. PhD thesis, 2009, pp. 1-149.
Danish energy agency, see http://www.klimatilpasning.dk