Transcript Energy Research and Policy

Energy Research and Policy
Ernest J. Moniz
Cecil and Ida Green Professor
Of Physics and Engineering Systems
Co-Director, Laboratory for Energy and the Environment
May 10, 2006
Perfect Storm of Energy Challenges
• Energy supply and demand
e.g. projected doubling of energy use and tripling of
electricity use by 2050 in business as usual
• Energy and security
e.g. geological and geopolitical realities of oil supply
• Energy and environment
e.g. greenhouse gas emissions and climate change
• Future scenarios highly uncertain on mid-century time scale
•50-year time scale characteristic of significant change in
energy infrastructure, of greenhouse gas concentrations
approaching twice pre-industrial,…
• Multiple uncertainties
•Resource availability?
-fossil fuels, land for renewables,…
•Science and technology advances?
-technology breakthroughs, climate change impacts
•Geopolitical considerations?
-Middle East, climate protocol participation,…
US Energy Supply Since 1850
Author: Koonin
Source: EIA
Global Primary Energy Demand BAU, Ref. Gas Price, Limited
Nuclear
900
800
700
600
RENEWABLES_EQ
HYDRO_EQ
NUCLEAR
GAS
OIL
COAL
500
400
300
200
100
0
1997
2005
Source: EPPA
2015
2025
2035
2045
Primary Energy Use Per Person
Annual Per Capita Electricity Use (kWh)
Source: S. Benka, Physics Today, April, 2002
Energy and Security
• Oil (and natural gas) adequate and reliable supply
• Vulnerability of extended energy delivery systems
• Nuclear weapons proliferation facilitated by
worldwide nuclear power expansion
• Dislocation from environmental impacts, such
as from climate change
% World Oil/Gas/Coal Reserves By Region: Geopolitical Issues In
Focus
North America
36 27
18
W. Europe
5
7
57
26
3
36
Eastern Europe
30
9
3 8
8 4
2
C./S. America
Coal
Middle East
Asia & Oceania
6 8 6
Africa
Gas
Oil
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook, 2002
Oil And Energy Security
•Core Issue: inelasticity of transportation fuels market, together
with geographical and geophysical realities of oil
•Addressing sudden disruptions
•Strategic reserves
•Well-functioning markets
•Increasing and diversifying supplies
•Enhanced production from existing fields
•Arctic E&P
•“Unconventional” oil (tar sands,…)
•Weakening the “addiction”
•Very efficient vehicles
•Alternative fuels (coal, NG, biomass)
•New transportation paradigm (electricity as
“fuel”? H2?)
Global Carbon Cycle (IPCC/EIA)
All Entries in Billion Metric Tons
ATMOSPHERE
750
60.0
61.3
1.6
Changing
Land-Use
5.5
0.5
90
92
FOSSIL FUEL
COMBUSTION
VEGETATION & SOILS
2,190
OCEAN
40,000
US Carbon Dioxide Emissions (EIA BAU)
Millions of Tonnes - Carbon
RESIDENTIAL
+
COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
2005
2025
2005
2025
2005
2025
2005
2025
Petroleum
43
48
119
142
526
743
688
933
Natural
Gas
120
149
122
150
10
14
252
313
3
3
55
47
0
0
58
49
Electricity
458
675
182
223
4
6
644
904
TOTAL
624
875
478
562
541
763
1643
2199
Coal
1.7%/yr
0.8%/yr
TRANSPORTATION
1.7%/yr
TOTAL
1.5%/yr
Climate Change Technology/Policy Pathways
•Efficiency
•Low carbon or “carbon-less” technologies/fuels
•Fuel switching, e.g., coal to natural gas
•Nuclear power (fission, possibly fusion in long term)
•Renewables (wind, geothermal, solar,…)
Note: scale matters
•Carbon dioxide capture and sequestration
The EPPA model can be used to study how world energy markets
would adapt to a carbon policy change. In the EPPA world, a
significant (but not exorbitant?) CO2 tax leads to emissions stabilization
by mid-century. However, the time to stabilization and the scale of
emissions are quite dependent on the “tax profile.”
CO2 Price ($/t)
100
80
60
40
20
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
HighCO2 Price
LowCO2 Price
Global CO2 Emissions (Gt/year)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Business as Usual
High CO2 Price
Low CO2 Price
Implications for Global Coal Use of Alternative
CO2 Price Assumptions*
BAU
Indicator
Coal CO 2 emissions
(GtCO 2/yr)
Coal Consumption (EJ/yr)
% Coal w/ CCS
Low CO 2
Price
2050
High CO 2
Price
2050
2000
2050
9
34
13
5
100
441
174
159
0
0
17
65
* Universal, simultaneous participation, limited nuclear & EPPA-Ref Gas
Price.
Coal Use With and Without Carbon Capture and
Sequestration (EJ)*
BAU
High CO 2 Price
2000
2050
With CCS
Without
CCS
100
441
159
99
U.S.
24
59
43
24
China
27
85
38
19
Global
* Universal, simultaneous participation, Limited nuclear and EPPARef gas prices.
•If developing economies do not adopt a carbon charge, emissions
cannot be stabilized by mid-century.
•If developing economies adopt a carbon charge but lag behind
developed economies in doing so, stabilization of emissions is possible,
although achieved later and at a higher level.
•For example, a 10 year lag increases cumulative emissions to midcentury by less than 10%.
CO2 Price ($/t)
100
80
60
40
20
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
High CO2 Price
10-yr Lag
Temp. Lag
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Global CO2 Emissions (Gt/year)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
20 05
201 0
Business as Usual
Annex B Only
2 015
20 20
2025
2 030
20 35
High CO2 Price
10-yr Lag
2040
2 045
205 0
Supercritical PC
w/o capture
w/ capture
PERFORMANCE
Heat rate (1), Btu/kW e-h
Generating efficiency (HHV)
Coal feed, kg/h
CO 2 emitted, kg/h
CO 2 captured at 90%, kg/h (3)
CO 2 emitted, g/kW e-h (2)
SC PC- Oxy
w/capture
IGCC
w/o capture
w/capture
8,868
38.5%
184,894
414,903
0
830
11,652
29.3%
242,950
54,518
490,662
109
11,157
30.6%
232,628
52,202
469,817
104
8,891
38.4%
185,376
415,983
0
832
10,942
31.2%
228,155
51,198
460,782
102
COSTS
Total Plant Cost, $/kW e
1,330
2,140
1,900
1,430
1,890
Inv. Charge, Ά/kWe-h @ 15.1% (3)
Fuel, Ά/kWe-h @ $1.50/MMBtu
O&M, Ά/kWe-h
2.70
1.33
0.75
4.34
1.75
1.60
3.85
1.67
1.45
2.90
1.33
0.90
3.83
1.64
1.05
COE, Ά/kWe-h
4.78
7.69
6.98
5.13
6.52
40.4
30.3
19.3
40.4
30.3
24.0
Cost of CO2 avoided 4 vs. same technology
w/o capture, $/tonne
Cost of CO2 avoided 4 vs. supercritical
technology w/o capture, $/tonne
Basis: 500 M We plant net output, Illinois # 6 coal (61.2 wt % C, HHV = 25,350 kJ/kg), & 85% capacity factor; for oxy-fuel SC PC CO
for sequestration is high purity; for IGCC, GE radiant cooled gasifier for no-capture case and GE full-quench gasifier for capture case.
(1) efficiency = (3414 Btu/kW e-h)/(heat rate)
(2) 90% removal used for all capture cases
(3) Annual carrying charge of 15.1% from EPRI-TAG methodology, based on 55% debt @ 6.5%, 45% equity @ 11.5%,
39.2% tax rate, 2% inflation rate, 3 year construction period, 20 year book life, applied to total plant cost to calculate
investment charge
(4) Does not include costs associated with transportation and injection/storage
2
Science and Technology for a Clean Energy Future
•Renewable technologies (wind, solar, geothermal, waves, biofuels)
•Electrochemical energy storage and conversion
•Core enabling science and technology (superconducting and
cryogenic components, nanotechnology and materials, transport
phenomena,…)
• Nuclear fusion
Improving Today’s Energy Systems
•Advanced nuclear reactors and fuel cycles that address cost,
safety, waste, and nonproliferation objectives
•Affordable supply of fossil-derived fuels (oil, natural gas, coal) from
both conventional and unconventional sources and processes
•Key enablers such as carbon sequestration
•Thermal conversion and utilization for dramatically enhanced
energy efficiency, including in industrial uses
•Enhanced reliability, robustness and resiliency of energy delivery
networks
•System integration in energy supply, delivery, and use
•Learning from the past and understanding current public attitudes
towards energy systems
•Understanding and facilitating the energy technology innovation
process
•In-depth integrative energy and technology policy studies that draw
on faculty across the campus
Energy Systems For a Rapidly Evolving World
•Science and policy of climate change
•Advanced efficient building technologies
•Advanced transportation systems, from novel technologies and
new fuels, to systems design including passenger and freight
networks
•“Giga-city” design and development, particularly in the developing
world