Transcript way forward for the regional tourism sector

CLIMATE CHANGE & TOURISM
IN THE CARIBBEAN
RESPONSIBLE, SUSTAINABLE TOURISM
IN LATIN AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN
CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CARIBBEAN
TOURISM SECTOR
Ulric O’D Trotz Ph.D
15th April 2008
1
Dependencies of Tourism in the
Caribbean
• Equitable climate
• Tourism plant– Hotels and other facilities
– Infrastructure- airports, cruise ship berths,
roads, coastal protection structures etc.
– Natural amenities – beach, reefs, wetlands
– Access to clean and adequate supply of water
– Access to ready supply of energy
– Financial services especially insurance
– Healthy environment free from diseases
– Adequate supplies of food
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What are the projections of
future Climate?

Unequivocal evidence that the earth’s temperature
is rising and attributable to anthropogenic
activities – Green House Gases

Projected trends through 2100

rise in global temperatures of between 2 – 4.5oC

Sea level rise of between 11 -77 cm

Changed weather patterns

More intense extremes –drought ,floods

More intense hurricanes
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Climate Change Trends in the
Caribbean
• Past 3 decades trend of increasing
mean temperature
• Significant >> in minimum temp.(1.4
deg. since 1960)
• No. of warm days in region >>, no. of
cold nights <<.
• Frequency of droughts >> since 1960
(Cuba)
• Frequency of occurrence of extreme
events changing- Flooding & hurricane
passage > in 1990’s
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Temperature Trends in the Caribbean
0.8
1.5
BARBADOS
BARBADOS
0.6
TRINIDAD
TRINIDAD
1.0
0.4
0.5
0.2
1999
1996
1990
1993
1987
1998
1984
1995
1981
1975
1986
1978
1972
1969
1983
1966
1963
1977
-0.4
-0.5
1960
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
-0.2
1974
0.0
0.0
1970
• Temperatures in the
Caribbean region are
changing in a manner
consistent with the
observed variations at
global and northern
hemisphere levels.
-1.0
-0.6
-1.5
-0.8
1.0
1.0
Saint
Lucia
SAINT
LUCIA
0.8
0.5
0.6
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
-0.2
1985
-1.5
-0.4
-2.0
-0.6
Dominica
DOMINICA
-2.5
-0.8
Period
to
2000
1973
Period
1973
to
2000
Variations of land surface
temperature for the Caribbean
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2004
2001
1992
1989
1980
-1.0
1982
0.0
1979
-0.5
1976
0.2
1973
• Temperature records
have shown an increase
in the last century, with
the 1990s being the
warmest decade since
the beginning of the
20th century.
0.0
0.4
IMPACT OF WARMER SEA TEMPERATURE
More frequent episodes of Coral Bleaching
since the 1980s
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Another Impact of Warmer Sea Temperature
Hurricanes developing at lower latitudes and becoming
more intense in a shorter period of time
Formed 2 Sept. 2004
Ivan developed near 8oN
Formed 15 Oct. 2004 Wilma
went from Depression to Cat 5
hurricane in less than 24 hrs.
Cozumel
Grenada
13 Aug. 2007 Cat 5
Hurricane Dean
approaching the Yucatan
Peninsula
Aug. 31 2007
Cat 5
Hurricane
Felix
approaching
Central
America
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The Impact of more intense hurricanes
&
Sea Level Rise
1997
2020
Wave Action
Wave Action
Storm Surge
MSL 1997
Storm Surge
MSL 2020
MSL 1997
:
Response Strategies
• Retreat
• Accommodation
• Protection
 Higher and stronger
storm surge
 More severe damage
to mangrove & corals
 Increase in coastal
damage and beach
erosion
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Increase incidences of unusually heavy rainfall
One of many flood events in
Georgetown, Guyana (2005, 2006
and 2007)
August 31, 2007 Belize City, Belize
Tropical wave dumped over 11 inches
of rain in less than 9 hours
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INSURED LOSSES
Storm
Class
Year
Estimated
1990
Insured
Losses
(000’s)
Estimated 1990 Insured Losses
if Maximum Wind Speed Increases
by
5%
10%
15%
Hugo
4
1989 $3,658,88
7
$4,902,70
5
34%
$6,514,17 $8,542,42
2
8
78%
133%
Alicia
3
1983 $2,435,58
9
$3,382,77
5
39%
$4,312,88 $5,685,85
4
3
77%
133%
Camille
5
1969 $3,086,20
1
$4,120,73
3
34%
$5,438,33 $7,095,00
2
8
76%
130%
Source: Clark, 1997.
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Habitat becomes less
favourable
Dolphin fish
+1°C
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Habitat becomes less
favourable
Green parrot fish
+1°C
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Impact OF 2oC rise on Agriculture
Preliminary studies on the impact on the staples corn, beans and rice for 2oC warmer and +/- 20%
change in precipitation
Crop
Scenario
Name
Dry beans Baseline
C3
Carib A
Rice
C3
Baseline
Carib A
Maize
C4
Baseline
Carib A
Season
Length
(days)
87
85
85
124
113
113
104
97
97
Temperature
Change (oC)
0
+2
+2
0
+2
+2
0
+2
+2
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% Change
in
precipitation
0
+20
-20
0
+20
-20
0
+20
-20
Yield
(kg/ha)
1353.6
1163.7
1092.6
3355.5
3014.4
2887.5
4510.6
3736.6
3759.4
% change
in Yield
-14%
-19%
-10%
-14%
-22%
-17%
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Likely Consequences of a Warmer
Climate in the Caribbean
• Will pose significant, and in some cases
insurmountable challenges to the region’s Economic
and Social Vulnerability
• Expected Areas of Negative Impact
– Agriculture/Fisheries
• Food security threat
– Tourism
• Economic sustainability
– Health
• Increase in vector borne diseases and other heat related
diseases
– Water
–
Human Settlements
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TOURISM AS A
CONTRIBUTING CAUSE
• GHG emissions from the sector derived
from:
• Transport- Road, Sea, Aviation
• Activity specific tourism e.g. sport
• Buildings and other tourism amenities –
use of energy
• Increased stress on natural ecosystems –
coastal ecosystems, natural resource base
for ecotourism
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Second International Conference on Climate
Change and Tourism in Davos(OCT.2007)
Conference agreed inter alia that :
• Climate is a key resource for tourism and the
sector is highly sensitive to impacts of climate
change and global warming, many elements of
which are already being felt. It is estimated to
contribute some 5% of global CO2emissions,
• The tourism sector must rapidly respond to
climate change, within the evolving UN
framework and progressively reduce its GHG
contribution if it is to grow in a sustainable
manner: this will require action to:
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DAVOS MEETING
• Mitigate its GHG emissions, derived
especially from transport and
accommodation activities.
• Adapt tourism businesses and
destinations to changing climate
conditions
• Apply existing and new technology to
improve energy efficiency.
• Secure financial resources to help poor
regions and countries
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WAY FORWARD FOR THE REGIONAL
TOURISM SECTOR
• Sustainable tourism thrust of regional industry in
consonance with actions to mitigate climate
change impacts
• Improve environmental performance of industry
through benchmarking &eco-labeling e.g.
through Green Globe 21 – includes GHG
emissions as one of nine key indicators.
• Explore potential of tourists to participate in
carbon offsetting schemes15th April 2008
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DECREASING TOURISM
EMISSIONS FOOTPRINT
•
•
•
•
•
•
Encourage green tourism
Energy efficient building designs
Water conservation – low flush toilets etc.
Energy efficiency management practices
Renewable energy use
Encourage use of energy efficient
vehicles, cycling & activities that use less
energy.
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WAY FORWARD FOR THE REGIONAL
TOURISM SECTOR
• More discriminatory approach to tourism
destinations – “green tourism”- win-win
situations for the Caribbean.
• Support the transition of the Caribbean
region to become the world’s first “Carbon
Neutral” tourism destination, thereby
affording the region a unique labeling and
branding platform that will support growth
within the global eco-sensitive client
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market.
WAY FORWARD FOR THE REGIONAL
TOURISM SECTOR
• Partnership with government to facilitate
development of an enabling policy environment
for sustainable tourism.
• Regional adaptation Fund – Carbon levy??
• Adaptation lending window at financial
institutions;
– Moratorium on repayments.
– Expeditious disbursement
– Concessionary interest rates
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WAY FORWARD FOR THE REGIONAL
TOURISM SECTOR
• Partnership with regional insurance companies,
climate science community to better define
future climate risks and provide:
• a rational basis for the design of insurance
instruments e.g weather derivatives,
catastrophe bonds, parametric insurance.
• the basis for incentives from
financial/government/insurance sectors for
“smart development in the sector”
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THANK YOU
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