Transcript (RE). - Climate Parliament

The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy
and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN)
johnthescone
Technologies of Climate Change Mitigation
Climate Parliament Forum, May 26, 2011
Prof. Dr. Thomas Bruckner
Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management (IIRM)
University of Leipzig, Germany
Renewable Energies in the 4th Assessment Report
Volume III of the IPCC AR4 comprises 850 pages;
only 8 pages are explicitly devoted to renewable energies (RE).
The IPCC SRREN
The IPCC Panel approved the development of the IPCC SRREN
at its 28th Session, held in Budapest on April 9-10, 2008.
The IPCC SRREN
The Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) was approved on May 9, 2011.
The electronic version of the entire report will be published on
May 31, 2011.
Current share of RE in the primary energy supply
The current global energy system
is fossil fuel dominated.
Recent increase of RE in the primary energy supply
RE show a rapid growth in
the provision of primary
energy supply.
150 GW of new RE power
plant capacity was built in
2008-2009.
This equals approximately
50% of all power plants built
during that period.
RE and climate change mitigation
Climate stabilization goal
Share of renewable energies in the
provision of primary energy supply
CO2 concentration limit
Carbon budget (limit on
cumulative emissions)
Selection of a portfolio based on:
 Economic competition
 Environmental impacts
 Security aspects
CO2-emissions trajectory
Freely emitting fossil fuels
 Societal aspects
Zero- or low-carbon energies: RE, nuclear, CCS
Energy efficiency
“Scale”: Energy services and resulting energy needs
RE and climate change mitigation
Source: IPCC, AR4, Synthesis Report, p. 20
RE and climate change mitigation
RE and climate change mitigation
Global RE primary energy supply from 164 long-term scenarios
versus fossil and industrial CO2 emissions.
RE and climate change mitigation
RE deployment increases in scenarios with lower greenhouse gas
concentration stabilization levels.
Technical potential
The global technical potential of RE sources
will not limit continued growth in the use of RE.
Current costs
The levelized cost of energy for many RE technologies is currently
higher than existing energy prices, though in various settings
RE is already economically competitive.
Current costs
Historic cost trends
RE costs have declined in the past and
further declines can be expected in the future.
Integration characteristics of RE technologies
As infrastructure and energy systems develop, in spite of the complexities,
there are few, if any, fundamental technological limits to integrating a portfolio
of RE technologies to meet a majority share of total energy demand in locations
where suitable RE resources exist or can be supplied.
Lifecycle GHG emissions of RE technologies
Lifecycle GHG emissions of RE technologies
Direct GHG emissions from modern bioenergy chains
(excluding land use change effects)
•
•
•
The sustainability of
bioenergy, in particular
in terms of life cycle
GHG emissions, is
influenced by land and
biomass resource
management practices.
The greenhouse gas
balance of biofuels can
be affected by direct
and indirect land-use
changes.
Proper governance of
land use, zoning, and
choice of biomass
production systems are
key challenges for
policy makers.
RE and sustainable development
• Economic development: Historically, economic development
has been strongly correlated with increasing energy use and
growth of GHG emissions. RE can help decouple that correlation,
contributing to sustainable development (SD).
• Energy access: RE can accelerate access to energy, particularly
for the 1.4 billion people without access to electricity and the
additional 1.3 billion people using traditional biomass.
• Energy security: RE deployment can reduce vulnerability to
supply disruptions and market volatility.
• Accident risks: In general, renewable energy technologies have
low fatality rates.
• Co-benefits (environmental and health benefits): Maximizing
these benefits depends on the specific technology, management,
and site characteristics associated with each RE project.
Policy support and enabling conditions
RE and Climate Change Mitigation Policies 2004
Policy support and enabling conditions
RE and Climate Change Mitigation Policies 2011
Policy support for RE
• An increasing number and variety of RE policies have promoted an
increase in RE capacity installations, especially, by helping to
overcome various barriers.
• Public R&D investments are most effective when complemented
by other policy instruments, particularly deployment policies that
simultaneously enhance demand for new technologies.
• Some policies have been shown to be effective and efficient in
rapidly increasing RE deployment. However, there is no
one-size-fits-all policy.
• In addition to GHG pricing policies (e.g., emission trading),
RE specific policies may be appropriate from an economic point of
view if opportunities for technological development are to be
addressed (or if other goals beyond climate mitigation are pursued).
• ‘Enabling’ policies support RE development and deployment.
Mitigation costs
The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy
and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN)
johnthescone
Contact:
Prof. Dr. Thomas Bruckner
Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management (IIRM)
University of Leipzig, Germany
[email protected]
http://www.uni-leipzig.de/energiemanagement/
RE and climate change mitigation
Source: IPCC, AR4, Synthesis Report, p. 20
Historic and prospective use of fossil fuels
Potential emissions from remaining fossil resources
could result in GHG concentration levels far above 600ppm.
Future technological trends
… for instance growth in size of
typical commercial wind turbines.