Transcript NSF07web - PIRCS - Iowa State University

Project to Intercompare
Regional Climate Simulations
(PIRCS)
PIRCS Mission
To provide a common framework for evaluating
strengths and weaknesses of regional climate
models and their component procedures through
systematic, comparative simulations
PIRCS Co-Directors
Ray Arritt [email protected]
Bill Gutowski [email protected]
Gene Takle [email protected]
http://www.pircs.iastate.edu/
Dynamical Downscaling
Global climate model
Regional climate model
Process models
(e.g., hydrology,
ecosystem)
Social systems
U.S. CCSP Strategic Plan
“Objective 1.6: Accelerate the development of scientificallybased predictive models to provide regional and fine-scale
climate and climate impacts information”
“…establish a process for coordination of regional modeling
activities…”
“Regional and sectoral climate and climate impacts research
and modeling is a high program priority”
http://www.pircs.iastate.edu/
National Research Council
Review of CCSP Strategic Plan
“In implementation, the CCSP should
support the development and
application of regional climate
models to a greater extent than
described in the revised plan.”
NRC: Implementing Climate and Global Change Research:
A Review of the Final U. S. Climate Change Science
Program Strategic Plan (2004)
PIRCS Experiments
1a: 15 May-15 July 1988
1c: July 1986 - Dec 1993
GCM grid: red points
1b: 1 June - 31 July 1993
Subset: Oct 1978 - Dec 1988
RCM grid: green, blue points
PIRCS Participating Groups
 Danish Met. Inst. (HIRHAM4; J.H. Christensen, O.B. Christensen)
 Université du Québec à Montréal (D. Caya, S. Biner)
 Scripps Institution of Oceanography (RSM; J. Roads, S. Chen)
 NCEP (RSM; S.-Y. Hong)
 NASA - Marshall (MM5/BATS; W. Lapenta)
 CSIRO (DARLAM; J. McGregor, J. Katzfey)
 Colorado State University (ClimRAMS; G. Liston)
 Iowa State University (RegCM2; Z. Pan)
 Iowa State University (MM5/LSM; D. Flory)
 Univ. of Maryland / NASA-GSFC (GEOS; M. Fox-Rabinovitz)
 SMHI / Rossby Centre (RCA; M. Rummukainen, C. Jones)
 NOAA (RUC2; G. Grell)
 ETH (D. Luethi)
 Universidad Complutense Madrid (PROMES; M.Gaertner)
 Université Catholique du Louvain (P. Marbaix)
 Argnonne National Lab (MM5 V3; J. Taylor, J. Larson)
 St. Louis University (Z. Pan)
500 hPa Heights:
Root Mean Square Difference from Reanalysis
PIRCS Expt 1a (1988)
“Warming Hole”
˚C
DTmax (JJA)
Refereed Publications: PIRCS
Science of Climate Change
 Takle, E. S., W. J. Gutowski, R. A. Arritt, Z. Pan, C. J. Anderson, R. R. da Silva,
D. Caya, S.-C. Chen, J. H. Christensen, S.-Y. Hong, H.-M. H. Juang, J. Katzfey,
W. M. Lapenta, R. Laprise, P. Lopez, J. McGregor and J. O. Roads, 1999:
Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS):
Description and initial results. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 19,443-19,461.
 Christopher J. Anderson, Raymond W. Arritt, Eugene S. Takle, Zaitao Pan,
William J. Gutowski, Jr., Renato da Silva, Daniel Caya, Jens H. Christiansen,
Daniel Luthi, Miguel A. Gaertner, Clemente Gallardo, Filippo Giorgi, Song-You
Hong, Colin Jones, H.-M. H. Juang, Jack J. Katzfey, William M. Lapenta, Rene
Laprise, Jay W. Larson, Glen E. Liston, John L. McGregor, Roger A. Pielke, Sr.,
John O. Roads, John A. Taylor, 2003: Hydrologic processes in regional
climate model simulations of the central United States flood of June-July
1993. J. Hydrometeor., 4, 584-598.
10-yr Runs
of Climate and Climate Change
• Longest published ensemble RCM runs for
contiguous U.S.
• 5 publications on science of regional climate and
climate change
• 6 publications on climate change impacts.
• Numerous conference & university presentations.
Broad, Community Interest
• Consultation by other science programs:
RMIP, ARCMIP, MERCURE/PRUDENCE, WGNE, CLIVAR,
South America projects, Africa AIACC
• Consultation by private sector:
e.g., Corn Growers Assoc., Basin Electric, Soil Conservation
Service, IA Assoc. of Municipal Utilities
• Foundation for North American Regional Climate Change
Assessment Program (NARCCAP)
Transferability Working Group
GEWEX Hydrometeorology Panel
World Climate Research Programme
Objective: Improved understanding and predictive capability
through systematic intercomparisons of regional climate
simulations on several continents with observations and analyses.
•Build on coordinated observations from GEWEX continental
scale experiments.
•Provide a framework for evaluating regional model
simulations of climate processes of different climatic regions.
•Evaluate transferability of regional climate models, for
example a model developed to study one region as applied to
other, “non-native”, regions.
•Examine individual and ensemble performance between
domains and on individual domains.
A Vision for U.S. Regional
Climate Modeling
• There is well documented need for regional climate
modeling beyond the CCSP plan to "Accelerate the
development of..."
• This urgency is driven both by the need for better
science and requirements for applications.
• The PIRCS and PRUDENCE experiences
demonstrate the value of coordination in regional
climate modeling
• No U.S. agency or organization is taking leadership
to accelerate regional climate modeling.
A Vision for U. S. Regional
Climate Modeling
• PIRCS brings:
– 10 years of experience
– Commitment to lead a regional modeling effort
– Motivation to coordinate with national climate
change priorities.
• Development of a center is potentially slow and
cumbersome.
• PIRCS can provide leadership within the timeframe of
the normal grants program.
Implementing the Vision
• Systematically examine fine-scale climate
dynamics.
• Coordinate U.S. comparisons.
• Provide foundation for:
– community member proposals
– U.S. climate change assessments
• Advance goals of CCSP Strategic Plan.
• Provide international linkages (e.g., GEWEX)
Implementing the Vision:
Issues
•
•
•
•
•
•
Ensembles
Transferability
Uncertainty, Predictability & Error Propagation
Upscaling
Feedbacks
Nesting
– domain, resolution differences, input frequency, physics
consistency
• Stability of long simulations
• Calibration
Implementing the Vision:
Outcomes
•
•
•
•
Standardized framework for assessing RCMs
Regional-scale feedbacks and couplings exposed
Improved models
Guidelines for improving observational databases for
model assessment
• Capacity-building in RCM science and assessment
• Cross-comparison with other downscaling methods
Implementing the Vision:
NSF Role
Questions for NSF:
• How much should impacts be included and
emphasized?
• What NSF divisions should be linked to this
vision?
• What is the potential for developing, with NSF
help, inter-agency cooperation toward meeting
CCSP goals?
• How much does US commitment to GEWEX
influences NSF's priorities?
PIRCS Homepage
http://www.pircs.iastate.edu
Implementing the Vision:
Personnel
• ISU faculty - oversight & management
• 1 Postdoc - scientific coordination
• 3 Graduate students - focused analyses
• 3 Undergraduates - computing assistance
• 1 Research associate - data management and
access
• External visitors
Implementing the Vision:
Support
• Workshops for participating modelers &
output users
• Supporting hardware
• Data access tools (e.g., Live-Access Server)
• Travel & Publication support
Precipitation Bias
[mm/d]
30
Daily Precipitation
San Juan - 1980
30
Daily Precipitation
San Juan - 1980
OBS
StatDS (1)
20
P [mm/d]
P [mm/d]
OBS
10
-10
-20
-30
1980.00
10
0
- P [mm/d]
- P [mm/d]
0
RegCM
20
1980.25
1980.50
Year
1980.75
1981.00
-10
-20
-30
1980.00
1980.25
1980.50
Year
1980.75
1981.00
100
300
50
250
0
200
-50
150
-100
100
Bias(RegCM)
Bias(StatDS)
-150
50
-200
0
-250
-50
-300
-100
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
Year
1985
1986
1987
Bias StatDS [m 3/s]
Bias RegCM [m 3/s]
Runoff Bias - Animas
Snowpack - Anim as
40
SIMULATED
RegCM
StatDS
35
Depth [cm]
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
DX =
250 km
contours
every
250 m
DX =
50 km
contours
every
250 m
DX =
10 km
contours
every
250 m
Possible
Comparisons?
Reanalysis
HadCM
Cont/Scen
Driving
RegCM2
OBS
HIRHAM
HadCM
Cont/Scen
Differences
0
1
2
0
1
2
0
1
2
Motivation
Daily Precip. Intensity: Apr - Sep
fraction
10
10
0
-2
OBS-1d
MOD-1d
10
10
-4
-6
0
2
4
6
[cm/d]
8
10
Model & Simulation
20-km grid
(120 x 150)
Grell & Pagowski
1994 - 1999
5-km grid
(121 x 165)
May - August
1997
(after spin-up)
Results - Precipitation
Precipitation Diurnal Cycle
8
[mm/d]
6
4
2
East
West
Whole Domain
0
0
4
8
12
16
Time [Local ST]
20
24
OBSERVED
800
DARLAM
NCEP RSM
REGCM2
CLIMRAMS
SCRIPPS RSM
MM5-BATS
ISU RAMS
Latent
Sensible
Inc. SW
600
[W-m-2 ]
HIRHAM
400
200
0
-200
-400
[W-m-2 ]
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
[W-m-2 ]
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
0
3
6
9
12 15 18 21 24
Hour
0
3
6
9
12 15 18 21 24
Hour
0
3
6
9
12 15 18 21 24
Hour
Without sufficient resolution,
it just doesn’t look right!
EST&LM