Transcript Scientific background of climate negotiations

REReP regional meeting on “Energy and
climate” in South Eastern Europe
May 22-23rd, 2008
Brussels, Belgium
CLIMATE CHANGE:
Scientific base for international negotiations
Zsuzsanna Ivanyi
OUTLINE
• Introduction
• Evidence of Climate Change
• Projected changes
• Mitigation options
• Conclusions
INTRODUCTION
Based on their latest observations,
the IPCC has now (AR4, 2007):
“very high confidence” that the
globally averaged net effect of
human activities since 1750 has been
one of warming, with a radiative
forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W m-2.
DIRECT OBSERVATIONS
The global average surface temperature
has increased at the 100-year trend (1906–
2005) of 0.74°C ± 0.18°C.
Snow and ice are melting widespread
Global mean sea level is rising
Source: Pachauri and Jallow, 2007.
Warmest 12 years:
1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,
2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
Warming is truly global
Warming since 1979 show:
Source: Manning, 2007.
CHANGES in EXTREMEs

Widespread changes in extreme
temperatures observed (less frequent
cold days, nights and frost, more
frequent heat waves)

Heavy precipitation events has increased
over most land areas

More intense and longer droughts
(observed since the 1970s, particularly in
the tropics and subtropics).
Source: Pachauri and Jallow, 2007.
What can be expected?
• For the next two decades a warming of about
0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES
emission scenarios.
• Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would
continue for centuries due to the timescales
associated with climate processes and
feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas
concentrations were stabilized.
• Temperatures in excess of 1.9 to 4.6°C warmer
than pre-industrial sustained for millenia –
resulting in melting of Greenland ice sheet
Source: IPCC, AR4, WG I. 2007
Emission Scenarios (SRES)
Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Projected
warming
in 21st century
expected to be
greatest over
land
and at most
high
northern
latitudes
and least over
the
Southern
Ocean
and parts of the
North Atlantic
Ocean
Source: IPCC, AR4, WG I. 2007.
TEMPERATURE
This map illustrates what can
be expected in Europe by the
end of the century, according
to the IPCC scenario (SRES
A2) whereby no action is
taken to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions, so that the
global mean temperature
increases by about 3.4°C by
the 2080s compared to 1990
levels. Under this scenario,
nearly all European regions
are expected to be
negatively affected and up to
half of Europe’s plant species
could be vulnerable or
threatened by 2080.
Source: Commission
Adaptation Green Paper;
2007.
PRECIPITATION
This map illustrates
what can be expected
in Europe by the end
of the century,
according to the IPCC
scenario (SRES A2)
whereby no action is
taken to reduce
greenhouse gas
emissions, so that the
global mean
temperature increases
by about 3.4°C by the
2080s compared to
1990 levels. Under this
scenario, nearly all
European regions are
expected to be
negatively affected and
up to half of Europe’s
plant species could be
vulnerable or
threatened by 2080.
Source: Commission
Adaptation Green Paper;
Marr, SUN presentation,
2007.
Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Continued GHG emissions at or above
current rates would increase further
warming and induce many changes in the
global climate system during the 21st century
that would very likely be larger than those
observed during the 20th century”
Source: Pachauri and Jallow, 2007.
Source: Stern Review, 2007.
The Three Key Pillars of Mitigation
Strategies
1. Lowering the energy intensity of economic
activity through increases in the efficiency of
vehicles, buildings, appliances, and industrial
processes
2. Lowering the carbon-emissions intensity of
energy supply through additions of renewable
and nuclear energy supply and through
modifications to fossil fuel technologies that
enable the capture and sequestration of CO2
3. Reducing the carbon emissions from land-use
change by means of reforestation, afforestation,
avoided deforestation, and improved soilmanagement practices in agriculture
Source: Urge-Vorsatz. 2007. Presentation of the UN SEG Report
Mitigation portfolio for electricity,
2030
Source: IPPC, AR4, WG III, 2007.
Long-term mitigation target (till 2050)
Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades
will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve
Source: IPPC, AR4, WG III, 2007.
lower stabilization levels
[1] The best estimate of climate sensitivity is 3ºC [WG 1 SPM].
[2] Note that global mean temperature at equilibrium is different from expected global mean temperature at the time of stabilization of GHG concentrations due to the inertia of the climate
system. For the majority of scenarios assessed, stabilisation of GHG concentrations occurs between 2100 and 2150.
[3] Ranges correspond to the 15th to 85th percentile of the post-TAR scenario distribution. CO2 emissions are shown so multi-gas scenarios can be compared with CO2-only scenarios.
Stabilization targets
 However, little can now be done to change the
likely adverse effects that some developing
countries will face in the next few decades,
and so some adaptation will be essential.
 Strong and early mitigation is the only way to
avoid some of the more severe impacts that
could occur in the second half of this century.
 Current evidence suggests a stabilisation need
of 450 – 550ppm CO2-eq
Anything higher has very harmful impacts
Anything lower raises costs significantly and may
not even be feasible any more
Mitigation and adaptation measures should be
integrated and reinforcing
Source: Stern Review, 2007. www.sternreview.org.uk
CONCLUSIONS
• The evidence of anthropogenic climate
change is now unequivocal
• All countries in CEE are and will be badly
affected, although severity and type of
impacts vary
• Avoiding dangerous impacts requires urgent
and strong action today
• Emission reduction needs are 30 – 50% in
2025 , while around 80% for 2050
• However, the AR4 concludes that this is
feasible.
REC Climate Change Activities
Started in 1999 with the specific objectives:
• to support countries in CEE and beyond
reforming their policies to comply with the
commitments and respond to the
opportunities created by the UNFCCC and
the Kyoto Protocol,
• to disseminate best practices, and
• to facilitate capacity building.
Major Activities
• Identifying the institutional, administrative and
legislative needs for implementing the UNFCCC
and the Kyoto Protocol;
• Promoting the flexible mechanisms under the
Kyoto Protocol and the Green Investment
Scheme (GIS);
• Assessment of effectiveness of policies and
measures;
• Co-operation with EEA/ETC to prepare EEA
Report on GHG emission trends and projections
in Europe 2007 and 2008
Major Activities (cont.)
• Leading case studies in the field of adaptation;
• Facilitation of climate policy in EITs for the PostKyoto period;
• Promotion of activities of the REC as Regional
Focal point for Article 6 of the UNFCCC (related to
education, training, awareness raising,
observations, researches and modeling in the
field of climate change);
• Enhance SEE sub-regional cooperation in the
field of climate change (e.g. Belgrade initiative).
Belgrade Initiative on
Climate Change
Main challenges in SEE
All SEE countries face problems with responding
to the obligations under the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change
Problems are mainly come from:
 They are faced with growing damage caused by
meteorological, hydrological and climate extremes and
catastrophes, and on the other hand, faced with poverty and
necessity for development
 In addition, the SEE countries have limited access to
knowledge, technology and financing, and have a great need of
capacity building and development (systemic, institutional and
individual), that has to be coupled with the requirements of the
Stabilisation and Association process to the EU
Main barriers, gaps in SEE
1.Legal Aspects
There is some progress, implementation of existing laws is challenge
2.Institutional/Human Capacity
-Lack of human capital (SEE countries are under-represented at COPs)
-Inter-sectoral co-operation and coordination is weak,
- Co-operation between national, regional and local levels to be improved,
- Guidelines (practical) for regional/local authorities would be needed,
3.Financial Aspects
- Lack of financial resources at national and local levels
4.Scientific area
Co-operation between science and decision-makers to be improved
5.Information area
Enhance awareness raising, especially focusing on mass media.
Suggested CB activities
• Strengthening the scientific basis for observation
and modelling, promote the international
cooperation between scientists;
• Raising awareness at the level of the nonenvironmental governmental bodies;
• Creating sustainable capacities;
• Improving information flows on the interministerial level;
• Raising awareness at the level of the
stakeholders which will be affected by the
consequences of climate change
• Financing (through GIS soft greening among
other).
Thank you for your attention
www.rec.org
[email protected]