Transcript 1. Why does global climate change emerge?

Global Climate Change as
Globalizational Risk Society
– Glocalizational Risk Governance
Chou, Kuei-Tien
National Taiwan University
October 28 2005
Global Climate Change and
Risk Society
Five theses:
1. Why does global climate change emerge?
2. What does global climate change mean?
3. What are the characters of global climate
change?
4. How does the threat of global climate change
be resolved?
5. Where is the glocal risk governance in terms
of tech-industrial policy?
Thesis 1: Why does global
climate change emerge?
• Development of sci-technological
breakthrough since 1830
• Industrialization
• Mass production and mass consumption
• Modernization is driven by such techindustrialized development
Industrial Society → Transportations
1. Horses, donkeys, and camels
2. Bikes
Industrial Society → Transportations
3.Automobiles
4.Ships
5.Planes
Thesis 1: Why does global
climate change emerge?
• From modern industrialization to modern
tremendous environment pollutions
• Global climate change is made by and in the
industrial society
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Volcano Eruption
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Industrial Society → Pollution
1. Smog
2.Drainage,
Ocean
3.Global
warming
Discovery of Acid Rain
• In the outset of the 1950s, fishery production
dropped without cause in North Europe
countries such as Sweden and Norway.
• Until the 1960s, Europe started to pay
attention on problem of acid rain and set up
Atmosphere Chemical Monitor Network. It is
therefore proved that problem of acid rain is a
cross-continental environmental issue.
Main Menu
Five theses:
1. Why does global climate change emerge?
2. What does global climate change
mean?
3. What are the characters of global climate
change?
4. How does the threat of global climate change
be resolved?
5. Where is the glocal risk governance in terms
of tech-industrial policy?
Thesis 2: What does global
climate change mean?
• The industrialized Modernization confronts
the huge threats and disasters made by
itself
• It constructs the industrialized risk society
which is called half/broken modernity
• Risk society of modern world faces radically
its unintended consequence, threats not
only locally but also globally
Thesis 2: What does global climate
change mean?
• Global climate change is regarded as one
part of world risk society
• The world risk society is constructed in
terms of globalizational tech-industrial
exchange and competition
• Globalizational risk society of climate
change becomes new self-threat civilization
Man-made Pollutions
圖片
• Sulfur dioxide (二氧化硫)
• Nox (氮氧化物)
• Hydrochloric acid (氯化氫)
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Acid Soil & Decreased Production
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Death of Plants
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Corroded architecture (Cultural diversity)
Corroded architecture (Cultural diversity)
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Five theses:
1. Why does global climate change emerge?
2. What does global climate change mean?
3. What are the characters of
global climate change?
4. How does the threat of global climate
change be resolved?
5. Where is the glocal risk governance in
terms of tech-industrial policy?
Thesis 3 : What are the characters
of global climate change?
• Scientific uncertainty of causing global
climate change
• Scientific contests of Resolution of global
climate change
• Global tech-industrial competition makes
the problem more complex
• But the threat and resolution of global risk
climate change is urgent
Definition of Risk in the
Industrial Society:
• Scientific view: Inherent uncertainty of
science (Bacon).
• Industrial society: Risk is a side effect
under ideology of progress and is controllable,
countable, and amendable, thus risk
assessment and risk cost externalization
developed.
Definition of Risk Society:
Industrial Risk Society: In the risk society,
risk involves many technological, political,
economic, ecological, and social ethical
factors. Risks are considered
uncontrollable, uncountable, and nonamendable.
Post-normal Science:
High
Post-normal science
Interests of decision-making
Professional consultation
Applied science
Low
Systematical uncertainty
High
Post-normal Science
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•
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High uncertainty of social system
High value disputes
Determination dilemma
Urgent decision-making
Global climate change as example
due to scientific uncertainty
Old Paradigms v.s. New Paradigms
•
Old paradigm: Risk assessment of industrial society
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–
–
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•
Predictability
Controllability
Accountability
Offset
partial / limited risks
New paradigm: risk assessment of risk society
–
–
–
–
–
Unpredictability
Uncontrollability
regional / global risks
Unaccountability
Non-offset
Global climate change as example
Modes of Risk Spreading
•
Old paradigm: risk assessment of industrial society
–
–
–
•
Limited / partial regional spreading
With limited / partial spreading speed
With limited / partial affected regions
New paradigm: risk assessment of risk society
–
–
–
–
Regional global spreading
With rapid spreading speed / spread through global nerworks
With cross-field / multi-field impacts of risk spreading
Global climate change as example
Risk Assessment Disputes
•
Old paradigm: risk assessment of industrial
society
–
–
–
•
Low to average technological complexity and uncertainty
Low to average organizational complexity and
uncertainty
Low public disputes
New paradigm: risk assessment or risk society
–
–
–
–
High technological complexity and uncertainty
High organizational complexity and uncertainty
High public disputes due to uncertainty
Global climate change as example
Five theses:
1. Why does global climate change emerge?
2. What does global climate change mean?
3. What are the characters of global climate
change?
4. How does the threat of global climate
change be resolved?
5. Where is the glocal risk governance in
terms of tech-industrial policy?
Thesis 4: How does the threat of
global climate change revolve?
• Globalizaitonal risk society of climate
change could be resolved by governance
• Risk governance includes the policies of
states` environment and tech-industry as
well as the movement of NGO/NPO
• Glocal risk governance will influence
dialectically the other country policy and
development and take feedback to the
globalizational level
Five theses:
1. Why does global climate change emerge?
2. What does global climate change mean?
3. What are the characters of global climate
change?
4. How does the threat of global climate
change be resolved?
5. Where is the glocal risk governance in
terms of tech-industrial policy?
Thesis 5: Where is the glocal risk
governance in terms of techindustrial policy?
• Checking the Taiwan environment policy:
National Energy conference in 1998, 2005
• Checking the movement of local NGO/NPO
• Checking the government policy of techindustry
Checking the Taiwan
environment policy: National
Energy conference in 1998 and
2005
Checking the Taiwan environment
policy: National Energy Conference in
1998 and 2005
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•
•
Total amount of CO2 emission in Taiwan in 1990 was
103 million tons.
Amount of CO2 emission in Taiwan in 2000 increased
to 218 million tons. In 2004, it mounted to 250 million
tons which ranked 22nd globally.
In Taiwan, regarding energy consumption, each person
consumes high as 4468 KLOEs (公升油當量) per year
(2002), per square kilometer consumes 2750 TOEs (噸
油當量); positioned at the first in terms of energy
consumption density. For energy consumption
density of per person, it ranked only second to the US
but higher than Japan and Germany. (Reported in
China Times, June11.2004, 歐陽喬暉).
Checking the Taiwan environment
policy: National Energy conference
in 1998 and 2005
•
•
•
Emission Reduction Measures of 1998 National
Energy Conference (全國能源會議):
- To reduce CO2 emission by 23 million tons in 2010
- To reduce CO2 emission by 71 million tons in 2015
- To reduce CO2 emission by 121 million tons in 2020
- To reduce Co2 emission by 170 million tons in 2025
Kyoto Protocol became effect since Feb. 16th 2005.
2005 National Energy Conference (June): Emission
reduction goals set in 1998 were cancelled.
Checking the movement of
local NGO/NPO
NGO protest picture
Checking the government
policy of tech-industry
Checking the government policy
of tech-industry
•
“Two Trillion Double Start ” Industrial Investment: Ministry of
Economic Affairs announced to support Chinese Petroleum
Corp.’s No. 8 Naphtha (中油八輕) and Formosa
Petrochemical Corporation’s Steel Refining Planet (台塑煉
鋼廠).
•
In 2003, greenhouse gas emission amount (溫室氣體排放量) of
industrial units contributes 51.8% of the total Greenhouse
Gas Emissions. Main are industries of steel-refining,
petrochemical, electronics, cement, and papermaking,
which contribute three-fourth of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
of industrial units.
•
In 2010, CO2 emission will immediately increase 49.1
million tons after the implementation of these two “Two
Trillion Double Start ” projects.
Conclusion: Tech-policy and
Climate Change
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•
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Technocrats delay and ignore the global trend of
dealing with threat of climate change
Logic of “valuing industrial development and
ignoring risks”
Lack of long term vision on global trend of
developing green technology
Ignore seriousness of Kyoto Protocol might lead to
trade sanctions
NGO protest movements play weak roles,
although they have invoked public awareness of
wrongful tech-industrial policy in relation to global
climate change
Thanks for paying attention